WPA Inquirer

THT offers a Win Expectancy calculator using math instead of historical game outcomes. This is particularly useful for rare situation in which the historical outcomes don't reflect the correct probability. Studes explains more in detail here.

Quick... First and second, nobody out in the top of the ninth and the road team is down by 1 run. Your RPG environment is 4.0. Colby Rasmus, who is essentially a league average hitter, is at the plate and he is followed by another league average hitter. Carl Crawford and Jose Reyes are the baserunners, essentially guaranteeing success on a bunt attempt. Do you bunt or hit away?

Answer in the comments section, then check your answer using the link.

over 2 years ago vivaelpujols 3 comments 0 recs |

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Just to prevent an MGL rant (not that that's a bad thing)...

Remember that if you decide to sacrifice, you aren’t 100% giving up an out to advance a runner. There’s a non-trivial chance the hitter reaches first either by hit or error. In many cases, that small probability turns a no-bunt situation into a bunt-worthy situation.

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by Sky Kalkman on Jun 27, 2009 8:09 AM EDT reply actions