WPA Inquirer
THT offers a Win Expectancy calculator using math instead of historical game outcomes. This is particularly useful for rare situation in which the historical outcomes don't reflect the correct probability. Studes explains more in detail here.
Quick... First and second, nobody out in the top of the ninth and the road team is down by 1 run. Your RPG environment is 4.0. Colby Rasmus, who is essentially a league average hitter, is at the plate and he is followed by another league average hitter. Carl Crawford and Jose Reyes are the baserunners, essentially guaranteeing success on a bunt attempt. Do you bunt or hit away?
Answer in the comments section, then check your answer using the link.
4 months ago
vivaelpujols
3 comments
0 recs |
Email
PrintComments
Just to prevent an MGL rant (not that that's a bad thing)...
Remember that if you decide to sacrifice, you aren’t 100% giving up an out to advance a runner. There’s a non-trivial chance the hitter reaches first either by hit or error. In many cases, that small probability turns a no-bunt situation into a bunt-worthy situation.
Beyond the Boxscore Not a member? Sign up.
by Sky Kalkman on Jun 27, 2009 8:09 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Very true
And there’s also a non-zero chance of a DP, which swings things back the other way a little bit.
by Dan Turkenkopf on Jun 27, 2009 9:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I know
There is also a chance that the lead runner gets thrown out at third. I was just trying to keep it simple.
St. Louis relievers... defying win expectancy since 2008
http://www.drivelinemechanics.com/
by vivaelpujols on Jun 27, 2009 12:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
BtB on Facebook
Certain photos copyright © 2009 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
