Beyond the Box Score: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Around SBN: Ole Miss-Alabama: "Let's Go Eat.Wait. What Happened?"

Hitting Streak Chances: Does the Date Matter?

In the November 2008 issue of By the Numbers, Jim Albert looks at hitting streaks and provides results that streaks happen more regularly than they should. The research was solid, except where he assumes the ability to get a hit is equal across a season. The ability to get a hit though is not constant across a season. This difference can be seen in the article, Changes in League Averages Over the Course of the Season by Brian Morrow, which was also published in By the Numbers. Brian shows that there is a 3% change in the number of hits per PA across the season, with the peak in the middle of the season and low points at the beginning and end of the season. This change is probably do to the increase in hits do to the extra distance a ball travels as the temperature increases. Balls hit when it is hotter face less air resistance therefore act like they were hit harder than they actually were and will travel further.

I decided to look to see when hitting streaks occur and if the time of the season is important. I took the 100 top hitting streaks from the past 10 years (20 game streak is the minimum) and marked how many of these streaks where happening each day. If a streak went from one season to the next, both ends of the streak were included. I also included the average temperature of the all the games for the last 10 years. Here is the results:

Tempvsstreak_medium

Star-divide

Though the number of streaks doesn't perfectly increase with temperature, there is a definite summer increase where twice as many streaks happened as compared to the spring and fall.  A streak can't be 100% attributed to the weather, but it can't be dismissed that streaks happen more often in the warm summer months.

Jim's article is not the only case where a writer assumed that stats are put up evenly across a season, which they are not. Many people assume that pitching dominates the post season, but when you are playing when it's 40 degrees F out side, the ball will not travel as far as when it is 100 degrees F (~42 feet less on a 400ft HR).

When you start hearing that a hitter is heating up and on a streak, it may not be all him, mother nature may also be playing a role.

0 recs  |  Comment 8 comments |

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

Love that graph.

I’d like to hear people’s ideas as to why hitting streaks seem to happen more earlier in the year than later in the year when the weather’s the warmest.

Another reason you’ll see more hitting streaks than expected by random chance is that there are “streaks” of home games and bad pitchers. When those things (which both help hitters) are pushed together, you’ll see more streaks. (Just like when hitters face streaks of road games and good pitchers, you’ll probably find that there are fewer good hitting streaks than chance would imply.)

by Sky Kalkman on Jun 24, 2009 11:22 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I'm gonna go with exhaustion wearing into the batter's skills.

OverTheMonster - ALLERGEN WARNING: May contain peanut butter.

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jun 24, 2009 12:49 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

They get more rest, right?

OverTheMonster - ALLERGEN WARNING: May contain peanut butter.

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jun 24, 2009 6:01 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hold the phone,

I thought all this stuff was random?

If you were thinking, you wouldn't have thought that.

by Warden11 on Jun 24, 2009 12:50 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Shh...

It’s only random till someone finds a connection.

OverTheMonster - ALLERGEN WARNING: May contain peanut butter.

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Jun 24, 2009 6:02 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm not sure how to prove this

But it would make sense that hitters are at their best in the middle of year independently from the weather. They have played long enough into the season to get a “feel” for how they are playing, and they haven’t felt the strain of a full season yet.

St. Louis relievers... defying win expectancy since 2008
http://www.drivelinemechanics.com/

by vivaelpujols on Jun 25, 2009 1:37 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

We use numbers and stuff.
Community Guidelines
Why be a member?
Start posting on Beyond the Box Score »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

770insig_small
BtB's "Ball On A Budget" Fantasy League - Discuss Participants, Payrolls and Position Eligibility

Recent FanPosts

Ds9_small
good graphing program?
Small
Predicting HR/FB Rates
Leopold_butter_scotch_southpark_small
Troy Tulowitzki vs Ryan Braun
Small
Pitchers batted ball observations
Small
Eric Byrnes: A player worth a look?
Small
Valverde Is Charging Detroit Double
Mukuro_small
Another question: About power rankings
Small
Why You Shouldn't Trade for Arroyo
Jinaz-reds-avatar_small
Last Call for BtB Sabermetric Writing Award Nominations

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

FanShots

Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.

Recent FanShots

If you care about newspaper coverage of MLB, read this post
Visualizing the Difference Between Offensive and Defensive Value for Catchers
First B-Pro and now ESPN. Tommy, you're growing up so fast
THT - Advancing by ground
Negro League Museum Close to Folding
It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly one...
Ranking Minor League Systems Using Victors Wang's Prospect Valuations
Pitch f/x on Ricky Nolasco Stretch vs. Windup again
Veron Wells the artist.  I never knew.

http://www.vwellsart.com/
A Dream Team... in honor of Dr. King

+ New FanShot All FanShots >

BtB on Twitter

Main Feed: @BtBScore

Jeff: @jeffwzimmerman
Steve: @steve_sommer
Sky: @BtB_Sky
Dan: @dturkenk
Harry: @harrypav
Jinaz: @jinazreds
Jack: @jh_moore
Erik: @Erik_Manning
Tommy R: @trancel
Justin: @justinbopp

Subscribe to BtB via Email

Enter your email address:

Delivered by FeedBurner

Most Commented

BtB Goes Social


Managers

Wbc_029_small Jeff Sullivan

Editors

Rawlings_baseball_bigger_small Dan Turkenkopf

Limes_125_small Sky Kalkman

770insig_small Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal)

Aviles_small Justin Bopp

Authors

Roots_game_small R.J. Anderson

Jinaz-reds-avatar_small JinAZ

Face_small Harry Pavlidis

1753738656_110919ebe9_o_small vivaelpujols

Ozzie_small erik

Raysring1_small Tommy Rancel

Redcap_small SFiercex4

St_louis_cardinals_ce1141_003263_small stevesommer05

Paige_small Satchel Price