Free Willy, as in cut his butt loose

by erik on Jun 21, 2009 5:29 PM EDT Comment 9 comments

When Willy Taveras signed a 2-year, $6.25 million deal, it seemed reasonable enough. After all, he couldn't be worse than Corey Patterson, right?

His projections called for something like .8 WAR, and if he could hit like he did in 2007 -- when he posted a .344 wOBA -- and play defense like he did in Houston -- when he was put up a shiny UZR of 27.8 over two seasons -- then you got one heck of a bargain. Granted, that probably wasn't going to happen in Jocketty's wildest fantasies, but $6.25 million for 1.5 WAR is about market rate.

Instead of the fantastic or even the realistic happening, Taveras has royally sucked. His defense has slightly above average. The big problem is he has a .262 wOBA, and yet somehow continues to have his named penned at the top of Dusty Baker's lineup card night after night. Leave it to Dusty prefer a languishing veteran over a younger, more talented player in the minors, and the Reds have two players who could easily top Taveres' "production" right now in Drew Stubbs and Chris Heisey.

Drew Stubbs, the Reds' 1st round pick in 2006, is everything Red fans wish Willy T. was. He steals bases, in fact he's leading the International League in swipes with 25, and has only been caught four times. Unlike Willy, Stubbs knows how to get on base, he's walking 12.6% of his plate appearances and has a .382 OBP. He's also an elite defender, by the scouting reports and by the numbers -- his Total Zone in the minors is +39 since 2006. Stubbs may not have a ton of homerun power, but the potential is there for above-average power, and it's not hard to out-homer Willy Taveras. There's just no logical reason Stubbs should be in the minors right now.

Even if the Reds felt they needed to give Stubbs a little more seasoning in AAA, they also have another center field prospect in AA, who is absolutely crushing the Southern League to the tune of a .468 wOBA in Chris Heisey. Heisey was drafted 16 rounds later than Stubbs out of a small college, and doesn't have the pure tools that Stubbs has, but he's steadily produced at each level before really going off this year. Between this season and the last he has stolen 42 bases and has been caught just twice, and over his minor league career he's been worth +66 runs with his glove, and has played all three outfield positions. Like Stubbs, he's not a masher, but he controls the bat well and takes his fair share of walks, over 11% the past two seasons.

Either of these two players represent a pretty significant upgrade over Corey Patterson Part 2, and I'm sure Reds fans are eager to see either of them get the call. The only problem is they have a manager who believes a player peaks when he is in his late thirties, so they may have to put up with a little more Willy then they'd wish.

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Dusty continues to amaze

St. Louis relievers... defying win expectancy since 2008
http://www.drivelinemechanics.com/

by vivaelpujols on Jun 21, 2009 7:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Chris Dickerson

Thats not even bringing Chris Dickerson into equation. Dickerson is an elite defender in CF. He isn’t so good on the corners, but you put that guy in CF and he is very good defensively. He knows how to walk, has some pop in his bat at times…

This was from a few nights ago’s paper:
Taveras drew boos as he came off the field. After the game, Baker was asked if he’d consider moving Taveras out of the leadoff spot like he did for two games last week. He is now batting .219 with a .270 on-base percentage.

“I don’t know,” Baker responded. “You’re asking me questions I really haven’t had time to think of. The problem is, I had Jerry leading off, and he wasn’t getting on, either.”

Yeah, he hasn’t had time to think of a reason why he generally runs out back to back sub .300 OBP (Taveras and a combo of Hairston or Alex Gonzalez) to lead off every game. Forget the fact that on the bench sits Chris Dickerson and his .391 OBP that can’t find the light of day now that Taveras is ‘healthy’.

www.redsminorleagues.com
www.FirstInning.com

by dougdirt on Jun 21, 2009 10:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Curious how Dickerson is elite in CF but isn't so good in the corner spots.

Same skills, no? Just a lower baseline in the corners.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Jun 21, 2009 10:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

dickerson's LF "skills"

for whatever reason, dude can’t read the ball off the bat in left. he’s brutal out there. haven’t really seen him play rf much.

in theory, it should be easier to read the ball in cf. i don’t know if that’s the problem, or if it’s mental, but dickerson is MUCH more comfortable in center. watching him in left is kind of like watching taveras on center… he’s got the physical skills to do it, but for whatever reason he just can’t get the job done. taveras speed makes up for some serious shortcomings in his defensive game… he makes terrible reads, and doesn’t take good routes. i had thought maybe his defensive stats coming into this year were skewed by playing in odd center fields in houston (due to the quirky-for-the-sake-of-quirky abomination of a center field there) or denver (due to the fact that covering it is probably like trying to cover nebraska)… but getting to see taveras up close and in person this year, it’s obvious he’s got no clue how to actually play center field.

ugh. it’s pointles to talk about, because, baker’s an idiot. that’s already well established, i think. the disabled list has spared us gonzalez in the 2-spot (and i don’t mind gonzalez, but he should hit noplace other than 8th. or, i guess, 7th if he’s on a team with willy taveras), but i’m afraid we’re stuck with taveras, which is too bad. dickerson is a better option for right now.

i think stubbs underachieved a bit in the minors before this season, and that may be why he’s not getting a shot just yet. i’m not sure it’s time for stubbs or heisey, but it’s certainly time for taveras to sit against righties, and when he does start against lefties he should be hitting 8th.

by rpa on Jun 21, 2009 11:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Don't Let Facts Get in the Way of a Good Rant

Uh, when did Dusty Baker start making roster decisions and become GM? He didn’t. When have you seen a team give up on a player 66 games into a $6.25 million contract? You haven’t. And when did minors numbers accurately measure a prospect’s major-league readiness? Not as often as you think.

Other than the facts of real-life baseball, your rant was fun but ultimately useless.

by Mr. Redlegs on Jun 22, 2009 12:13 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

dusty as gm?

i see a reference to jocketty signing taveras up there. only criticism of dusty i see is penciling taveras in at leadoff every night, which is (i think?) completely within his control.

by rpa on Jun 22, 2009 12:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Realizing that a team won't give up on a "big" contract and knowing they should are two different things.

Minor league numbers do surprising well at projecting major league performance. And major league numbers do surprisingly poorly at projecting major league performance. Sure, I’d rather have the MLB numbers, but instead of it being a 10/90 split in usefulness, it’s more like 40/60.

Personally, if I were attacking this post, I’d point out that Willy’s 2009 sample size isn’t indicative of what to expect going forward, necessarily. For example, coming into the season, ZiPS projected a .306 wOBA. Willy’s posted a .259 wOBA so far. ZiPS’s updated projection for the rest of the season is a .295 wOBA. So when judging Willy vs. the prospects going forward, we should use the .295 number, not the .259 number. Still, a .295 wOBA is awful, and if any of the prospects really have the defensive chops they’re reported to have, they could have an even worse wOBA (unlikely) and still be just as valuable as Willy.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Jun 22, 2009 8:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

So many questions

Who said Dusty Baker was the GM?
When have you seen a player play this poorly 66 games into a season and retain their spot in the leadoff role?
You’re really defending Baker’s use of Taveras as the every day centerfielder and leadoff hitter? Even without looking at the better options in the minors, they have at least 4 other guys on the major league roster who have played centerfield. And former major leaguer Norris Hopper playing in AAA.

by rojosoto on Jun 22, 2009 8:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs