FanPost

Trends

I was at The Book Blog the other day, and MGL made a comment that I found very interesting:

And there is NO evidence that “trends” mean anything for pitchers or batters, other than how they affect a Marcel-type weighted average.  If I am wrong about that, I invite Steve or anyone else to enlighten me.

IOW, a pitcher with a K per 9 (for convenience sake, as opposed to K per PA), over the last 4 years, of:

7.0
6.0
5.0
4.5

should have roughly the same K/9 projection as someone with:

3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0

I may be reading this wrong, but it appears that he is saying that trends do not predict future performance.  I know that hot streaks do not predict performance (thanks to Dave Cameron), but I always thought it was different in a larger sample size of a full season.   

I would be intersted if someone here could point me in the direction of an article or something about this. 

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