Rally’s got him as -15 defensively over his career with a WAR of 41.6.

Of HOFers and likely HOFers:
Bench = 68.8
Pudge the elder = 67.5
Pudge the younger = 68.1
Piazza = 58.3
Carter = 64.6

Of long-time non-HOF catchers:
Jim Sundberg = 34.7
Ted Simmons = 52.1
Lance Parrish = 35.3
Bill Freehan = 42.4
Jason Kendall = 36.5
Darrell Porter = 41.9

Simmons and Freehan are occasionally pushed as worthy HOFers. Posada should pass Freehan this season, but probably won’t get near Simmons unless he lasts for another 4 or 5 years.

Quantifying catcher defense is really tough, so I don’t know how realistic Sean’s numbers are, but Posada definitely doesn’t have a good defensive reputation.

If you assume he’s average defensively, then he still only gains 1.5 more wins – which doesn’t vault him into HOF discussions.

The relatively late start to his career (26 before he got a full-time gig) probably will hurt him counting stat-wise, although not that much in WAR. And who’s to say the late start isn’t why he’s still productive today.

So regrettably since he’s my second favorite player of the Yankee dynasty, I’m going to have to say no on the HOF. If he puts up a few more seasons like his 2007, then that’s a different story.