Should Jorge Posada be a HOFer?
His offensive numbers seem to stack up pretty well across eras, but I'm a bit iffy on the usage of FRAA.
1. Because I don't believe in it.
2. Because I really don't believe in it for catchers.
about 1 year ago
R.J. Anderson
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I've got him as -8 runs from 2005-2007 on blocking pitches
Rally’s got him as -15 defensively over his career with a WAR of 41.6.
Of HOFers and likely HOFers:
Bench = 68.8
Pudge the elder = 67.5
Pudge the younger = 68.1
Piazza = 58.3
Carter = 64.6
Of long-time non-HOF catchers:
Jim Sundberg = 34.7
Ted Simmons = 52.1
Lance Parrish = 35.3
Bill Freehan = 42.4
Jason Kendall = 36.5
Darrell Porter = 41.9
Simmons and Freehan are occasionally pushed as worthy HOFers. Posada should pass Freehan this season, but probably won’t get near Simmons unless he lasts for another 4 or 5 years.
Quantifying catcher defense is really tough, so I don’t know how realistic Sean’s numbers are, but Posada definitely doesn’t have a good defensive reputation.
If you assume he’s average defensively, then he still only gains 1.5 more wins – which doesn’t vault him into HOF discussions.
The relatively late start to his career (26 before he got a full-time gig) probably will hurt him counting stat-wise, although not that much in WAR. And who’s to say the late start isn’t why he’s still productive today.
So regrettably since he’s my second favorite player of the Yankee dynasty, I’m going to have to say no on the HOF. If he puts up a few more seasons like his 2007, then that’s a different story.
who's you favorite?
Personally, although I’m not a Yankees fan, I think that while he hung on way too long, because of that Bernie W. has become a bit underrated by saber-fans.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by Matt Klaassen on Jun 2, 2009 11:03 PM EDT up reply actions
You got him.
I think he’s terribly underrated in general. His last few seasons definitely didn’t help that impression, but I don’t think he ever got the acclaim of Jim Edmonds, for example, despite being pretty close to his level as a player.
by Dan Turkenkopf on Jun 3, 2009 7:49 AM EDT up reply actions
Without doing research, I'm going to disagree with this, mostly on fielding ability.
Checking CHONE’s site…
Edmonds leads in career WAR 68 to 51. Bernie leads in career PA, 9000 to 7600.
Fielding, uh, makes a huge difference according to CHONE. TZ + Arm for Edmonds career is +92. For Bernie it’s -118. Ouch.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
ouch
I’m still more concerned about the negative effect his terrible smooth jazz albums have had
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by Matt Klaassen on Jun 3, 2009 1:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Total Zone has Bernie as a pretty horrendous fielder throughout his career
When most people seem to believe he was above average for most of it. He was horrible the last few seasons, but Total Zone says he wasn’t that bad in his last two years – which I find hard to fathom.
The general perception might be wrong, and I don’t have easy access to any other sources to verify at the moment, but I’m not convinced the gap is 20 wins big.
by Dan Turkenkopf on Jun 3, 2009 5:38 PM EDT up reply actions
I understand the deffiencies of Total Zone
but I always thought they even out after many years. Bernie has been pretty consistently in the -5 to -15 range (expect for one year when he was +20!), so I would think that TZ semi-accurately measures his true fielding ability.
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
About half of Bernie's negative total is due to his arm, fyi.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
The arm I can believe
The range/fielding I have more trouble with.
I’ll see if I can find some of Dial’s Zone Rating metrics and see what they say.
by Dan Turkenkopf on Jun 3, 2009 8:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Dial's numbers back up Total Zone
Straight from the source:
June 3 at 10:33pm
playerID YEAR CF
willibe02 1991 -6.0
1992 5.0
1993 -2.0
1994 4.0
1995 10.0
1996 -10.0
1997 1.0
1998 10.0
1999 -15.0
2000 -5.0
2001 -6.0
2002 -21.0
2003 -14.0
2004 -13.0
2005 -7.0
2006 2.0
Grand Total -67.0
by Dan Turkenkopf on Jun 4, 2009 8:18 AM EDT up reply actions
Are those the same ZRs SG (from RLYW) has compiled?
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
Those would be the ones
SG did the work based on Dial’s initial design.
Does RLYW have a spreadsheet of them?
by Dan Turkenkopf on Jun 4, 2009 8:38 AM EDT up reply actions
Subjectively
I think Bernie also got dogged too much even during the dynasty because he “looked like” he didn’t “care” enough or something. People always thought he “should” be a better basestealer or something. Because, you know, a +40 hitter (in his prime) CF just isn’t enough.
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by Matt Klaassen on Jun 3, 2009 1:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Maybe I'm remembering things wrong...
but didn’t Bernie get a TON of love during the dynasty years? Or maybe that was just from Yankee fans?
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.


























