Rockies' Ubaldo Jimenez Is Earning His Contract Extension
This offseason the Colorado Rockies signed Ubaldo Jimenez to an extension. The terms were a guaranteed four years/$10 million dollars with a maximum potential of six years/$22.75 million dollars. At the time of the deal, I thought it was a steal. Jimenez is just 25 years old. He's been durable, he has great stuff, and oh he's really, really good. I expected Jimenez to clearly out perform the contract, but I didn't expect he would give the Rockies half the value of the $22.75 million after just 14 starts in 2009. Now I know it is premature to analyze a potential six year contract after just two and a half months, but Jimenez is quietly putting up some amazing numbers in the shadows of the Rocky Mountains.
After yesterday's victory, Jimenez is 6-6 with a 3.73 ERA. Thanks to a nice round K/BB of 2.00 and an amazing 0.30 HR/9 despite Coors Field being his home ball park, Jimenez's FIP is 3.28. Even with his blazing fastball that sits, yes sits, at an average speed of 95.5, he only striking out 7.66 hitters per nine, which is eerily close to his career K/9 of 7.60. Jimenez still struggles with his control, but his 3.83 BB/9 is nearly a full walk lower than last season and about half a walk lower than career norms. The most eye popping stat is the home runs allowed.
As mentioned above, Jimenez has a HR/9 of just 0.30 in 2009. For his career that number is just 0.60. Over his career, if you look at just his home runs per nine at Coors Field, in 194.1 innings tossed at the launching pad, he has allowed just 14 home runs or 0.65 per nine. Ubaldo Jimenez is the human humidor.
Despite the great start, Jimenez actually has room to improve. His current BABIP of .318 is 20 points higher than normal and his line drive percentage is up 2.5% over his career average. While those aren't earth shattering numbers, Jimenez is due for some regression to the mean, which will make his numbers even better.
With a WAR of 2.5 this season, he was already covered $11.2 million of his contract in value. If he just matches his 4.4 WAR from a season ago, he will nearly be worth his entire extension in 2009. For an organization that has not had much of a reputation for developing starting pitchers, Jimenez is changing that quickly.
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Comments
Did I miss the Ubaldo Jimenez memo? Guess I will get hot on a Graph of the Day for him.
Harry must be behind on the pitch F/X charts.
Jeff Zimmerman - Protecting the world from RBI's and Wins from my mom's guest house.
by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Jun 19, 2009 6:36 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
He is due some regression that will make his numbers better?
So you don’t think the HR/FB% of 4.3% will rise?
by paqs on Jun 19, 2009 10:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
It was 6.9% last season.
So it’s not that far off.
by Tom (RFTN) on Jun 20, 2009 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Anyone know the Coors' HR/FB park factor?
I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s not all that crazy, and the reason for the high home runs is that it’s a lot easier to put the ball in the air in Coors.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Jun 20, 2009 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know the park factor
But here are the HR/FB rates for the Rockies’ other SPs this season.
Aaron Cook: 15.0%
Jason Marquis: 9.3%
Jorge de la Rosa: 11.9%
Jason Hammel: 9.4%
It’s notable that Hammel’s HR/FB is lower than it was in Tampa Bay, and Marquis’s is barely higher than last year’s in Chicago (and lower than his rate in Chicago and St. Louis from 2004-07.)
In addition, Rockies hitters have hit 36 homers at Coors vs. 42 on the road; Rockies pitchers have given up 28 homers at Coors vs. 34 on the road (though they’ve played seven more road games than home games.)
by Tom (RFTN) on Jun 20, 2009 5:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And also
It being a lot easier to put the ball in the air at Coors does not jibe with the fact that three of the top nine pitchers in GB% so far this year (Marquis, Cook, and Jimenez) pitch for the Rockies.
by Tom (RFTN) on Jun 20, 2009 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
By "easier to put the ball in the air" I was including the fact that it's easire to put the ball in play overall.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Jun 20, 2009 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This article from Inside the Book is relevant...
Eschew Obfuscation!
by Jabberwocky on Jun 20, 2009 5:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Also of interest:
Something’s Rotten in Den…ver
Schrodinger’s Bat: Swing and Miss
Schrodinger’s Bat: More Humidity
All three are BP articles (from 2006) on Coors Field’s humidor effect.
Eschew Obfuscation!
by Jabberwocky on Jun 20, 2009 5:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I miss
Franklin Morales. I mean, the one that could actually get a few batters out.
I just remember when Morales and Jimenez helped the team to the Series. Seeing Jimenez now a top starter makes me feel sad for Morales. :(
by BlackOps on Jun 20, 2009 1:46 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Morales struggled immensely last year, apparently due to injury
He had a great start this season in Game 3 but has been injured since. He has since left the DL, but with the staff tossing out a 4.05 tRA, there’s not much need to break up the current rotation. But Morales will be back.
"I have no special talents. I am only passionately curious." - Albert Einstein
by Poseidon's Fist on Jun 20, 2009 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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