Interview With Me At MVN's Braves Blog
Alex Remington of Chop-n-Change, MVN's Braves blog asked me a few questions via email and my answers are posted on his site. My answer to his question about how much the upgrades from Schafer to McLouth and Jo-Jo Reyes to Tommy Hanson would help the team:
" I wrote about Jo-Jo earlier in the year as someone whose ERA deserves to be better than it is, based on strikeout rate, walk rate, etc. While posting ERAs of 5.81 and 7.00 in 2008 and 2009, his tRA suggests those should have been more in the 4.75 to 5.00 ERA range. That's 4th starter or good 5th starter material, which, well, is what it is. I'm not sure what the Braves plans for him long term are, but unless he becomes a lights-out reliever, he'll have more value at the end of their rotation.That being said, Hanson has a much higher ceiling and if the Braves are going to leap-frog two good teams -- the Phillies and Mets -- they're going to need to play lights out the rest of the way. Solidly above average just won't cut it. Plugging Hanson into the rotation is one step towards that upside possibilty.
Of course, all the smarter projection systems have him sitting at around a 5.40 FIP this year, so expecting big results isn't the smart money. To answer your question, Hanson, right now, shouldn't be expected to be much better than what Jo Jo's skills indicated he would have done the rest of the way. But on the chance he matures quickly and lives up to his potential in 2009, it's the smart move. As for McLouth, yes, he's a definite upgrade and the Braves definitely should have ditched... Jeff Francoeur or Garret Anderson. I mean, just looking at 2009 stats, Schafer actually has a better wOBA than Francoeur and is only ten points behind Anderson. You can argue both veterans should be expected to improve (Anderson more than Francoeur), but the same argument can be made for Schafer, who also has a much better track record than his current stats indicate, albeit in the minors. Plus, and this is important, Schafer's the only center fielder of the bunch. McLouth is pretty bad in center and is probably more of an average corner outfielder. You wouldn't dare try either veteran in center.
If I were the Braves, I'd keep Schafer in center, put McLouth in a corner spot, and platoon Francoeur/Anderson in the other corner spot. Not only does that optimize the defense -- Schafer is 10-20 runs more valuable defensively than anyone else -- but you're not actually sacrificing much on offense. Over the life of McLouth's contract, the less he plays center (meaning the Braves have someone else competent in center) the more games the team is probably winning."
5 months ago
Sky Kalkman
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