Contract Retrospective: Travis Hafner's 2007 Extension
This is a little "feature" I might keep doing every once in a while. I do a crude "retrojection" of a player at the time of a contract was signed. It's easy enough to criticize an extension after a player busts or whatever, but maybe things looked different at the time.
Is this something that seems worthwhile/of interest in general?
6 months ago
devil_fingers
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yes
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by larry on May 8, 2009 2:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Very interesting stuff.
Yes, I want to read more of these. And I’d like to see you add something. When you run the Marcel for the year-after projection, continue projecting seasons down the road, through the end of the signed contract. If you want help setting up an Excel spreadsheet to automatically do that easily, let me know.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on May 8, 2009 2:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Sky --
that’s a good suggestion, but any particular reason you think that’s better than just assuming the -0.5 WAR a season “decline phase?”
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by devil_fingers on May 9, 2009 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, aging and playing time differences between players.
It’s also nice to see the actual projected stat lines for a few years down the road, especially for people not familiar with the context of the WAR scale.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on May 9, 2009 11:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
hmmm
something to think about. I do have a Colin’s Marcels script for BDB, but I was enjoying just doing the regression and aging adjustment to the lwts independently. I’m not sure how I’d adjust playing time for aging, but I’ll take a look at it. HItters are easier, of course. Eric Chavez is an obvious future subject. Barry Zito’s way too easy. I
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by devil_fingers on May 11, 2009 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
There's a Marcel algorithm for playing time, fyi. Doesn't adjust for aging, but it's picking nits at that point anyway.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on May 11, 2009 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yup
0.5 year -1 + 0.1 year-2 +200
I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.
by devil_fingers on May 11, 2009 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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