Manny Ramirez Suspended; Dodgers Left(field) with Juan Pierre
When word broke around 11:30 a.m. EST about Manny Ramirez testing positive for a banned substance, and that a 50 game suspension was to follow, the world of baseball was rocked once again. Many have been accused fairly or unfairly, but Ramirez's name has usually stayed clear of suspicion. This is mostly because Manny has always been a power hitter and he was never a small man physically. There's also the fact that the guy is a hitting savant and he has...that swing. One would think that you would not need any enhancements with a swing like that. In any event, Ramirez stands guilty as charged and will begin his suspension tonight. In his place will be...Juan Pierre.
I put together this graph on who most people in and around baseball would want on their team: Juan Pierre or Manny Ramirez. The data is unofficial, but staggering.
A few years ago, Juan Pierre was a nice lead-off hitter for the Colorado Rockies and Florida Marlins. In his first five seasons, he posted an OBP of .353 or greater four times and his lowest OBP in the five year span was still a respectable .332. Somewhere along the way his OBP dropped into the .320-.330 level. Recently, the most productive thing he has done was become a punch line in a Jay-Z lyric. A beneficiary of stolen base highlights and web gems, Pierre signed a five-year $44 million dollar contract with the Dodgers before the 2007 season. Let's just say that deal hasn't gone exactly as planned.
Pierre's play has fallen off in each of his first two seasons with the club and when the Dodgers acquired Ramirez last summer, Pierre became a well paid fourth outfielder/defensive replacement. There were rumors of him requesting a trade this off-season, and while I'm sure the Dodgers would've loved to shed his contract, there were no takers. With no space in the outfield in 2009, Pierre resumed his role as part time player/Manny Ramirez outfield caddy. With Manny Ramirez suspended, Pierre now returns to a starting role for the Major League's best team.
I'm not breaking any news to anybody when I say there is no way in the world the Juan Pierre can come close to replacing Manny Ramirez. Pierre could be a combination of Carl Crawford and Roberto Clemente defensively and it still wouldn't make up a quarter of the difference in offensive production. Including 2009, Pierre has been worth a total of 6.4 WAR over the past five years. In 2008 alone, Ramirez was worth 6.5. At his current pace, the loss of Ramirez should cost the Dodgers about 2-2.5 wins. This shouldn't be that big of a deal given the Dodgers lead their division by six games already and the fact that the NL West isn't exactly the AL East in terms of competition. Sure there will be some impact in the lineup, but the overall effect on the Dodgers should greater psychologically than in actual production on the field.
In limited action, Pierre is hitting .355/.394/.387 this year. Despite the nice OBP, Pierre is still only walking 6.1% of the time. The bulk of his OBP is coming from a higher than normal batting average, but this can easily explain by a BABIP that is about 50 points higher than normal. The best thing Pierre can do over the next 50 games is get on base at a decent clip, steal a few bags, and let Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier go to work behind him.
When Manny returns from maternity leave due to his female fertility pills, he will be more motivated and rested than he was when he joined the Dodgers last July. His absense will be a bit of a distraction in the interim, but Joe Torre is no stranger to these type of distractions and despite losing the best right-handed hitter* of my generation, the Dodgers even with Juan Pierre should be just fine until July 3rd.
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Comments
So, if I'm reading this poll correctly. . .
You polled 10,000 people, and one of them was Juan Pierre?
by philkid3 on May 7, 2009 7:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I was a bit suspicious when the guy who voted for Juan Pierre said his name was John Peter.
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on May 7, 2009 7:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
No, one was Bill Plaschke
King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president
by Sam Page on May 8, 2009 12:41 AM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
2.5 WAR sounds high to me.
Let’s say Manny’s a 5 WAR player and Pierre is a 1 WAR player (his defense is good and his above is about average assuming some rebound from the .320 OBP of recent year(s). That’s 4 WAR over a season, or less than 1.5 WAR over 1/3 of it.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on May 7, 2009 7:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I was being conservative.
Pierre was basically replacement level last year and so far Manny has been worth 1.5 WAR already.
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on May 7, 2009 10:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I will say I believe part of the Dodgers hot start is because Manny is on pace for like 9 wins.
So if you only see him as a five win player this seson, wouldn’t you also see the Dodgers regressing a handful of wins from the rate they’re winning on right now?
by philkid3 on May 7, 2009 10:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Also: (credit to Gina and John Hart for bringing this up), how sure are we he'll come back 100%?
by philkid3 on May 7, 2009 10:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm pretty sure he'll come back strong.
One, he’s never needed much of a spring training. Two, he was already cycling off the ’roids this year and was performing fine ;)
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on May 8, 2009 9:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Im pretty sure
Manny is still a great hitter without enchancers. The Dodgers are clearly the best team in that division so I really don’t see this hurting them too much in the long run.
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on May 8, 2009 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not sure if this is a vote for Pierre or not...
But this has me going crazy.
You’ve got a player like Juan Pierre who can replace him. That’s a good player.
-Bruce Bochy
The Basil Fawlty Moderating Strategy:
"We could run a nice blog here if we didn't have all these members getting in the way."
Kevin Frandsen should be with the big team.
by WalrusMan on May 7, 2009 8:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Every day that man is still managing the Giants
Is another day where I cannot fully enjoy being a Giants fan.
Aaron King is still my homeboy... iffy mechanics and all
If Dustin Pedroia played in Seattle, not many people would be talking about him.
by baetown415 on May 7, 2009 10:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He’s definitely not going to be able to replace Ramirez’ production, but Pierre isnt the worst player in the history of the game like some make him out to be.
If he can get on base, anyway he can..bunt, beat out ground balls, slapping a hit the other way, etc, the guys behind him are going to drive him in and he has the ability to score a lot of runs.
There are a few teams out there that could use a guy like Pierre as their starting LF. Also, he is generally regarded around the game as one of the nicest guys and best teammates to have in the entire league.
by backtocali on May 7, 2009 11:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Pierre is an ok player.
The contract is what makes him a bit of a joke in some circles, but it’s not his fault. He’s a completely different player from Manny, but overall I think the Dodgers will be just fine.
www.draysbay.com
by Tommy Rancel on May 8, 2009 10:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
Also, he’s not one of these guys who gets on base from intimidation because of his power alone. He sees more strikes than the average player because who’s afraid to pitch to him? (They probably should be, but haven’t looked at the right sets of numbers to justify that yet.) And he walks…not terribly often, but more often than he strikes out. He has been one of the most skilled hitters in the game, and even had an iron man streak going before Manny arrived in LA.
by justaguyfromkc on May 9, 2009 1:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
By the numbers, Juan Pierre > Manny Ramirez (sometimes)
Aside from baserunning and fielding, there are some situations when Juan Pierre has outperformed Manny:
Less than 2 outs, runner on 3rd base:
From 2008-09, JP has driven in the runner on 3rd base 57% of the time.
In his career, JP has driven in a runner on 3rd base 56% of the time.
While wearing Dodger Blue in 2008-09, Manny only drove in the runner on 3rd 48% of the time, and for his career, Manny has driven in the runner on 3rd 52% of the time.
League average is 51% for this split.
By the numbers (+4-9%), Joe Torre should choose Juan Pierre to pinch-hit for Manny in tied games with a runner on 3rd and less than 2 outs!
Less than 2 outs, runner on 2nd base:
From 2008-09, JP has driven in the runner on 2nd base 57% of the time.
In his career, JP has driven in the runner on 2nd base 57% of the time.
While wearing Dodger Blue in 2008-09, Manny only drove in the runner on 2nd 16% of the time, and for his career, Manny has driven in the runner on 2nd only 35% of the time.
League average is 42% for this split.
By the numbers (+22-41%), Joe Torre should choose Juan Pierre to pinch-hit for Manny in tied games with a runner on 2nd and less than 2 outs!
So it goes with blind sabermetric assumptions.
by justaguyfromkc on May 9, 2009 12:47 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Correction
for 2nd base, it’s % of such times that JP or Manny successfully advanced the runner to 3rd.
by justaguyfromkc on May 9, 2009 12:59 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
er
advanced the runner at least to 3rd or to home.
by justaguyfromkc on May 9, 2009 1:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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