Historical WAR Between Hitters and Pitchers
With Sean Smith releasing historical WAR for pitchers, we can take a look at how they compare with the hitters. Here are the top twenty five players in career WAR, including seasons 1955 and after.
| Rank | WAR | Pos | Player |
| 1 | 173.9 | H | Bonds, Barry |
| 2 | 140.4 | H | Mays, Willie |
| 3 | 139.7 | H | Aaron, Hank |
| 4 | 128.3 | P | Clemens, Roger |
| 5 | 114.7 | H | Henderson, Rickey |
| 6 | 106.5 | H | Schmidt, Mike |
| 7 | 106.1 | H | Robinson, Frank |
| 8 | 105.4 | P | Seaver, Tom |
| 9 | 104.7 | H | Morgan, Joe |
| 10 | 99.3 | H | Mantle, Mickey |
| 11 | 96.8 | P | Niekro, Phil |
| 12 | 96.7 | P | Maddux, Greg |
| 13 | 96.5 | H | Rodriguez, Alex |
| 14 | 96.3 | P | Perry, Gaylord |
| 15 | 94.5 | H | Yastrzemski, Carl |
| 16 | 92.3 | H | Boggs, Wade |
| 17 | 91.8 | P | Johnson, Randy |
| 18 | 91.2 | H | Ripken, Cal |
| 19 | 90.6 | H | Kaline, Al |
| 20 | 90.3 | P | Blyleven, Bert |
| 21 | 89.3 | H | Brett, George |
| 22 | 85.5 | P | Gibson, Bob |
| 23 | 84.8 | P | Ryan, Nolan |
| 24 | 84.6 | H | Rose, Pete |
| 25 | 84.4 | P | Carlton, Steve |
There are two active players on that list, Alex Rodriguez and Randy Johnson. ARod's only 10 WAR from moving into sixth all time ahead of Mike Schmidt, but would need a dozen more WAR to catch Rickey Henderson and the top five, and another few MVP-caliber seasons to catch Roger Clemens.
The best of the best -- Barry Bonds, Willie Mays, and Hank Aaron -- are, as expected, hitters and are three of the all-time best players. Willie Mays' total even ignores a few seasons that came before 1955. 6 out of the top 7 and 8 out of the top ten are also hitters. Is it possible for Clemens and Tom Seaver to be underrated?
The top 25 currently contains 15 hitters and 10 pitchers, perhaps a few more pitchers than I would have guessed. If you look deeper, at the top 100 players, you find 73% are hitters. At spot 150, a strange thing happens. Here, take a look:
Basically, between players ranked 150 and 200, the front half contains a strangely large percentage of pitchers, while the back half contains a strangely large percentage of hitters. My first thought was that perhaps this is where the best relief pitchers started to fall. But that doesn't explain the resurgence of the hitters. And the gap is only from 48 WAR down to 42 WAR, not that wide of a range. Statistical oddity? Here, you decide:
| 149 | 47.5 | P | Gooden, Dwight |
| 150 | 47.3 | P | Friend, Bob |
| 151 | 47.3 | H | Puckett, Kirby |
| 152 | 47.1 | P | Langston, Mark |
| 153 | 47.1 | H | Burks, Ellis |
| 154 | 47.1 | H | Harrah, Toby |
| 155 | 46.9 | P | Moyer, Jamie |
| 156 | 46.9 | P | Rivera, Mariano |
| 157 | 46.9 | H | Delgado, Carlos |
| 158 | 46.8 | P | Martinez, Dennis |
| 159 | 46.6 | P | Rogers, Kenny |
| 160 | 46.5 | H | Colavito, Rocky |
| 161 | 46.3 | H | Cepeda, Orlando |
| 162 | 45.9 | P | Rogers, Steve |
| 163 | 45.8 | P | Key, Jimmy |
| 164 | 45.8 | H | White, Roy |
| 165 | 45.7 | P | Lolich, Mickey |
| 166 | 45.7 | H | Tenace, Gene |
| 167 | 45.5 | P | Pappas, Milt |
| 168 | 45.3 | P | Pettitte, Andy |
| 169 | 45.2 | H | Vizquel, Omar |
| 170 | 44.9 | P | Wood, Wilbur |
| 171 | 44.5 | P | Guidry, Ron |
| 172 | 44.5 | H | Fregosi, Jim |
| 173 | 44.5 | H | Campaneris, Bert |
| 174 | 44.2 | H | Damon, Johnny |
| 175 | 44.0 | H | Knoblauch, Chuck |
| 176 | 43.9 | P | Blue, Vida |
| 177 | 43.9 | H | Murphy, Dale |
| 178 | 43.7 | P | Viola, Frank |
| 179 | 43.7 | H | Garciaparra, Nomar |
| 180 | 43.5 | H | Oliva, Tony |
| 181 | 43.5 | H | Canseco, Jose |
| 182 | 43.4 | H | Franco, Julio |
| 183 | 43.4 | H | Finley, Steve |
| 184 | 43.2 | H | Strawberry, Darryl |
| 185 | 43.2 | H | Berkman, Lance |
| 186 | 43.1 | H | Van Slyke, Andy |
| 187 | 43.0 | H | Dykstra, Lenny |
| 188 | 43.0 | H | Fernandez, Tony |
| 189 | 42.9 | H | Rice, Jim |
| 190 | 42.8 | H | Williams, Matt |
| 191 | 42.6 | H | Cameron, Mike |
| 192 | 42.6 | H | Singleton, Ken |
| 193 | 42.4 | H | Brock, Lou |
| 194 | 42.4 | H | Freehan, Bill |
| 195 | 42.4 | H | Mattingly, Don |
| 196 | 42.2 | H | Powell, Boog |
| 197 | 42.2 | H | Munson, Thurman |
| 198 | 41.9 | H | Porter, Darrell |
| 199 | 41.8 | H | Foster, George |
| 200 | 41.8 | H | White, Devon |
Going back to the graph, there are some other interesting things to notice:
- The best of the best are hitters, but the top 25 players contains a large number of pitchers.
- The next 25 players are mostly hitters, getting the ratio of hitters to pitcher up into the high 2's through the top 100 players.
- Then, except for the weird thing in the middle, the ratio of hitters to pitchers gradually decreases through the rest of the list, settling on almost exactly 2.0 by the top 350 players.
Note that I'm only showing the top 452 players on the graph, because that's where the 300th ranked position player (Bill Mazeroski) falls. Everyone after that would be pitchers, because Sean doesn't go beyond the top 300.
The short story? We probably underrate pitchers, especially those outside the inner circle of Hall of Famers. Might that be because we've seen so many inner-circle HoFamers pitch in the last generation and take them for granted?
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I should apologize to that guy who voted for Matt Williams
189 42.9 H Rice, Jim
190 42.8 H Williams, Matt
not
Where would Pedro be?
On top players?
by Markakis and Wieters 4 Life on May 5, 2009 3:30 PM EDT reply actions
that is such an enormous amount of interesting information, i think it signals
nothing good for my mental capacity that i have only one thought: Phil Niekro?!?!??
i guess if you play baseball for like 19 million years you become very valuable overall.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
blyleven
in the company of ripken, george brett, kaline and bob gibson. weren’t those all first ballot HOFers?
the injustice continues to get more egregious.
Too bad the retrosheet era starts at 1955. I have to imagine that guys like Cy Young, Addie Joss, Walter Johnston, etc would have some silly WAR values
Wisconsin: Famous for dairy, Ryan Rohlinger and not much else.
why can't WAR go earlier for pitchers?
isn’t it just based on FIP minus league average FIP +2 wins?
OT, but for things like this,another interesting comparison would be a WAR-like comparison for pitchers based on something more results-oriented than FIP. Since we’re talking about HOF-caliber careers, it would at worst be “interesting”.
- "I went at it and didn’t slow down, so it kind of bounced off me." -Lil' Dunc
Sean's using actual RA adjusted with his Total Zone defensive metric I believe
And I’m pretty sure Total Zone relies on Retrosheet data.
by Dan Turkenkopf on May 6, 2009 8:08 AM EDT up reply actions
not to mention
Mathewson, Ruth, Gehrig, Williams, Wagner, Hornsby, Alexander, etc… I would love to see Ruth’s WAR for pitching.
by gingerbreadmann on May 5, 2009 10:37 PM EDT reply actions
I can't believe the Hall voted in someone who was .3 wins better then Mike Cameron over their career.
And since Mike Cameron is still producing, will eventually be worth less then Mike Cameron over their career.
Jose Lopez roxxorz my boxxorz.
51!
I haven't seen a good explanation of the differences between Fangraphs' Win values and Sean Smith's - what makes them different?
Fangraphs has Randy Johnson at 8.7 WAR in 2002 and 9.7 WAR in 2004, while Smith has him at 8.8 WAR in 2002 and then 7.4 WAR (2.5 wins off) in 2004 – what’s the cause of variation like this (it’s present for other pitchers like Curt Schilling and for hitters too – Ichiro comes to mind). What’s going on here?
Some of the larger differences:
Position Players
UZR vs. TotalZone fielding metric
catcher defense in Sean’s WAR
slight rep level difference
baserunning in Sean’s WAR
Pitchers
Fangraphs uses FIP. Sean uses ERA, adjusted for defense, park, etc.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

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