A Quick Look At MLB Attendance
by Sky Kalkman on May 29, 2009 10:00 AM EDT
14 comments
Spurred by a Twitter conversation with Cork Gaines from @RaysIndex, I wanted to take a look at early season attendance figures. Using ESPN's handy attendance data, I compared 2008 and early 2009 attendance numbers. Now, early season attendance usually isn't as high as it is later in the season (weather and pennant races being two larger issues) and the new Yankee and Mets ballparks skew the data significantly (smaller capacities, but higher ticket prices). That being said, the relative rankings of the attendance changes can still be useful.
On average, attendance is down about 10% per team, and 5,000 fans per home game. Again, much of that is due to New York's new stadium models. The chart below is sorted initially by absolute change in per-game attendance from last year, but you can click the column headers to re-sort by percent change.
| % Change | TEAM | Abs Change | TEAM |
| 12.4% | Florida | 2,075 | Florida |
| 10.0% | Kansas City | 1,997 | Kansas City |
| 7.3% | Tampa Bay | 1,635 | Tampa Bay |
| 6.2% | Texas | 1,506 | Texas |
| 2.2% | Philadelphia | 910 | Philadelphia |
| 0.5% | Boston | 170 | Boston |
| -1.3% | LA Angels | -539 | LA Angels |
| -3.2% | Chicago Cubs | -1,293 | Chicago Cubs |
| -3.8% | San Francisco | -1,336 | San Francisco |
| -4.0% | Milwaukee | -1,523 | Milwaukee |
| -5.3% | Seattle | -1,527 | Seattle |
| -4.6% | St. Louis | -1,932 | St. Louis |
| -4.3% | LA Dodgers | -1,967 | LA Dodgers |
| -8.6% | Minnesota | -2,445 | Minnesota |
| -12.6% | Cincinnati | -3,200 | Cincinnati |
| -15.6% | Oakland | -3,216 | Oakland |
| -14.1% | Baltimore | -3,528 | Baltimore |
| -12.6% | Arizona | -3,894 | Arizona |
| -13.3% | San Diego | -3,980 | San Diego |
| -22.1% | Pittsburgh | -4,445 | Pittsburgh |
| -13.7% | Houston | -4,772 | Houston |
| -17.3% | Chicago Sox | -5,348 | Chicago Sox |
| -16.4% | Colorado | -5,429 | Colorado |
| -10.1% | AVERAGE | -5,183 | AVERAGE |
| -22.9% | Cleveland | -6,220 | Cleveland |
| -23.4% | Atlanta | -7,305 | Atlanta |
| -25.3% | Toronto | -7,484 | Toronto |
| -27.5% | Washington | -7,968 | Washington |
| -15.9% | NY Yankees | -8,434 | NY Yankees |
| -29.5% | Detroit | -11,648 | Detroit |
| -24.3% | NY Mets | -12,421 | NY Mets |
Based on percent change, there are four teams with significant attendance increases: the Marlins, Royals, Rays, and Rangers. The Rays' explanation is obvious, and the other three teams have played surprisingly well so far this year, although I didn't know attendance increases were often seen this quickly based on performance.
Philadelphia's also seen a significant increase in absolute fans, but because they were already seeing a high level of attendance anyways, aren't getting a huge percentage increase from their World Series victory.
At the bottom of the list, Detroit, Washington, Toronto, Atlanta, and Cleveland all saw larger than average decreases in attendance. Most of those can be explained by disappointing 2008 seasons and perhaps a loss of season tickets. Toronto confuses me a bit -- are we seeing some sort of Canadian economic influence?
Anything else that sticks out to you? Do you have anything to add about why we're seeing some of the changes that we are for certain teams? Have you seen any studies weighting the trade-offs between fewer seats in the new New York stadiums versus the increased revenue per ticket sold?
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Great regression study on predicting attendance
Link
The only factors this study found were:
# of All-Stars on Roster
Games Behind
Attendance in previous year
Whether or not it is the first year of the stadium
Whether or not it is the second year of the stadium
I think this years Yankee and Mets stadium woes would put a few kinks in the study
by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on May 29, 2009 10:32 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Try that link again? Sounds pretty interesting.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on May 29, 2009 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
also
the huge increase in cost per ticket is affecting both NY clubs.
KC has a boost from good performance, Zach and a “new” stadium with only moderate price increases, though many pricing options. New Party Deck, fan experience, kids area.
DH: Where's the party!
Danny: David Howard and Mike Sweeney! Go away! Guys, you're gonna wake up my Mom!
by David Howards Legacy on May 29, 2009 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Very interesting article
I notice he didn’t include general economic climate which is being blamed in a lot of cases for the decline.
I wonder whether that would be significant (and if you could even really tell over the time frame he looked at).
by Dan Turkenkopf on May 30, 2009 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow
Toronto’s numbers are brutal, and they were 27-14 at one point…
A Toronto sports blog, where unabashed homerism is alive and well...
PLAYOFFS!!!!1
by eyebleaf on May 29, 2009 10:36 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I believe the Jays changed how they count attendance...
They are only counting sold tickets this year where as in the past they counted given away tickets as well. I’m not sure how much that effects the count. The other part is management told the fans that the team wouldn’t compete this season. So you can understand why people would be slow to realize that management was wrong. Yeah it seemed like a stupid move to me at the time too.
by Tom Dakers on May 30, 2009 2:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Marlins
Florida’s attendance is skewed ever so slightly due to the early season combination of a Mets game, a Saturday night game, and a Flo-Rida concert (seriously). That game drew more than any non-opener since the 04 victory lap, except for the 42,000+ who saw Bonds hit 760.
If you replace that game with the attendance from last year’s Saturday Mets game (an August meeting even), they’re up 1,594 (9.5%). Still a pretty significant bump, but it does slide them down the list a bit.
Marlins Stadium: When It's Raining, The Roof Will Happen!
by dan 2.0 on May 29, 2009 10:45 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Weather is a big part of it for Atlanta
Atlanta sells a lot of walk up tickets and a rainy forecast means less people going to the stadium, especially people who drive from Alabama/Tennessee/Carolinas for weekend games. The team has already experienced more time under rain delays by early May than all of last season.
by VictorW on May 29, 2009 12:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Take a look at BR
Baseball Reference has a tool where you can compare attendance through today with attendance through the same date last year. Using that, the numbers look very different (12 teams have increased their attendance – for example, the Brewers have attracted 3,000 more fans per home game this year than last year, through the same number of games). That seems like a better way to look at the data.
Here’s the link: Change in Baseball Attendance 2008-2009
by lar on May 29, 2009 2:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Phenomenal. Thanks for that link.
Revised ordering of change in absolute attendance per game:
TBR
PHI
KCR
TEX
MIL
FLA
MIN
LAA
BOS
SFG
PIT
SEA
CIN
STL
CHC
LAD
CHW
OAK
AVG
CLE
ARI
TOR
SDP
HOU
BAL
COL
ATL
NYY
WSN
DET
NYM
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on May 29, 2009 3:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Can I ask how it is possible that Boston had a positive increase in attendance
when they claim to sell out every game?
I remember that at some point last year, they had something like 500 consecutive sellouts.
by plasticman on May 31, 2009 2:19 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Added more seats?
My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver
by Baltimo on May 31, 2009 8:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dodgers/Phils 6/4-5/2009
The Dodgers suggested an attendance of 52,538 for Friday’s game and 33,839 for the prior Thursday game. Try running those figures past anyone who watched either game. Those stands looked as empty as any Pittsburgh Pirates or Florida Marlins home game. I guess it’s true what my Economics 101 teacher once said, “Figures don’t lie but liars figure.” The strange thing about the barely half-full Dodger Stadium stands is the Dodgers have the best record in MLB.
by AvgJoe on Jun 6, 2009 10:49 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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