Accumulated Negative Team WAR
Or, What the Reds are to pitching, the Royals are to hitting.
Our own erik has been writing about how teams have done in various drafts with their first round picks, and in several cases these high round picks have accumulated negative WAR at the major league level. I wanted to see which teams actually allow players to continue to play in the majors and accumulate losses for their team.
For my study, I looked at players from the last five years that had a negative WAR for a season from Fangraphs. If the player played for two teams in the same season, I only took the partial negative seasons. Since I got the data from Fangraphs, I could only find players with a combined negative WAR. I am sure a missed a few players that had negative value for one team and larger positive value for another. I was not going to go through and look through each positive value, so my final numbers might be a little less negative than they should be.
Besides adding up the five year totals in negative WAR, I counted the number of players a team let accumulate -0.5 WAR in a season. I wanted to see if some of the teams were having to put players with marginal talent on the field, but then being able to notice they were not helping the team. The player could start accumulating negative WAR and then the team tries another player.
Now that the background information is done, let's look at a chart and graph of the results:
| Batting | Pitching | Total | ||||
| Team | WAR | Number < -0.5 WAR | WAR | Number < -0.5 WAR | WAR | Number < -0.5 WAR |
| Royals | -23.3 | 21 | -8.9 | 4 | -32.2 | 25 |
| Reds | -15.0 | 13 | -15.7 | 15 | -30.7 | 28 |
| Mariners | -17.0 | 13 | -12.9 | 8 | -29.9 | 21 |
| Orioles | -16.1 | 10 | -13.6 | 10 | -29.7 | 20 |
| (Devil) Rays | -17.1 | 13 | -12.3 | 8 | -29.4 | 21 |
| Pirates | -15.5 | 11 | -13.2 | 9 | -28.7 | 20 |
| Nationals/Expos | -17.8 | 13 | -8.9 | 2 | -26.7 | 15 |
| Yankees | -17.6 | 12 | -8.2 | 1 | -25.8 | 13 |
| Rockies | -17.4 | 14 | -7.1 | 3 | -24.5 | 17 |
| Braves | -14.5 | 12 | -9.8 | 5 | -24.3 | 17 |
| Diamondbacks | -14.4 | 13 | -9.8 | 5 | -24.2 | 18 |
| Mets | -8.9 | 3 | -14.7 | 11 | -23.6 | 14 |
| Padres | -9.6 | 6 | -12.4 | 9 | -22.0 | 15 |
| White Sox | -14.5 | 13 | -5.4 | 3 | -19.9 | 16 |
| Rangers | -13.6 | 10 | -5.9 | 1 | -19.5 | 11 |
| Dodgers | -12.2 | 8 | -7.3 | 5 | -19.5 | 13 |
| Indians | -10.8 | 7 | -8.6 | 5 | -19.4 | 12 |
| Astros | -8.0 | 5 | -10.8 | 10 | -18.8 | 15 |
| Tigers | -11.0 | 6 | -7.8 | 4 | -18.8 | 10 |
| Cardinals | -8.9 | 6 | -9.6 | 6 | -18.5 | 12 |
| Cubs | -11.3 | 6 | -6.9 | 4 | -18.2 | 10 |
| Athletics | -12.3 | 9 | -5.4 | 3 | -17.7 | 12 |
| Twins | -13.7 | 11 | -3.9 | 1 | -17.6 | 12 |
| Marlins | -10.5 | 8 | -7.1 | 2 | -17.6 | 10 |
| Angels | -13.8 | 12 | -3.7 | 1 | -17.5 | 13 |
| Phillies | -9.2 | 7 | -8.2 | 5 | -17.4 | 12 |
| Giants | -11.7 | 6 | -5.3 | 3 | -17.0 | 9 |
| Blue Jays | -11.2 | 6 | -4.5 | 2 | -15.7 | 8 |
| Red Sox | -8.9 | 7 | -2.8 | 0 | -11.7 | 7 |
| Brewers | -5.8 | 3 | -5.8 | 3 | -11.6 | 6 |
| Average | -13.1 | 9.5 | -8.6 | 4.9 | -21.6 | 14.4 |
My Observations:
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My Royals suck worse than I ever thought about understanding replacement level. On average they gave up about five wins a season by continuing to run out below replacement pitchers and hitters.
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The Reds take the cake when it comes to letting below average pitching continue to throw into the season.
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The Brewers were the surprise "winners" by only giving up 11.6 wins over the last five years or about two per season, which is three less per season than the Royals did.
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As a whole, most teams gave up more wins from sub-standard position players versus substandard pitching. The Mets, Astros, Padres, Cardinals and Reds were the only five teams that bucked this trend.
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Some teams that are know to a have a sabermetric focus did very well, like Boston and Oakland, while others did not do as well.
I know teams won't ever be able to eliminate below replacement type players from playing entirely, or mediocre players from playing poorly for stretches, but it is obvious that some teams could definitely do more than they are currently doing to put a minimum level of talent on the field.
1 recs |
6 comments
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Comments
Awesome
Yay Josh Fogg!
One of the things I wrote about a lot in trying to understand why the Reds were so bad last year despite breakouts by Votto, Volquez, etc, is the amount of playing time that went to sub-replacement performance. The Reds gave 20% of their PA’s to Corey Patterson, Jeff Keppinger, and Paul Bako, all of whom were at or below replacement. What I didn’t know was whether this was unusually bad…my feeling from this is yeah, probably.
As you said, you can’t completely avoid some sub-replacement-level performances from occurring, but you see most of the “smart” teams, even if not particularly known for being saber teams (Brewers, Twins, maybe Cardinals) in the bottom half of your graph. Interesting to see the Yankees way up there, despite their payroll.
-j
My blog: Basement-Dwellers.com
by JinAZ on May 28, 2009 7:56 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm also fascinated by the Yankees, and this validates all my screaming that they should carry more depth.
Jose Molina, backup catcher? Cody Ransom and Angel Berroa, backup infielders?
At least they got the OF/1B/DH positions right this year. An extra quality player or two can be rotated in, and if someone goes down (Nady) you still have a full stable of quality players.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on May 28, 2009 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have no clue how to explain the Giants. Especially considering some of the hitters they’ve started the last few years.
When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips
Proud father of Juan Carlos Perez. Think Albert Pujols at second.
by marcello on May 28, 2009 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Here are the 6 positional players that WAR was more then .5 for the Giants:
Marquis Grissom
Ray Durham
Todd Linden
Jose Vizcaino
John Bowker
Alex Sanchez
by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on May 28, 2009 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd be curious to see the distribution of
WAR for a team. For example, do some teams have a ton of average players (2-4WAR) with no stars (4+)? Very similar to the exercise in this post just setting up some WAR bins to drop players into.
I’m also not surprised about the negative WAR for the Cardinals pitchers. They seem to be able to keep marginal hitters in the right types of situations so that they aren’t crippling. Pitchers get run out in all kinds of situations though.
Future Redbirds - tracking Cardinal prospects for Cardinal Nation
by azruavatar on May 28, 2009 9:42 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
It would not be that hard to create the pools, except that Fangraphs combines players that played for the same team into one value.
Request to Fangraphs — Could you please have it an option to have split seasons with the leader board? Thanks.
by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on May 28, 2009 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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