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Frequent BtB goer Dan Turkenkopf looks at stealing home plate in the 2000's. He finds that the average break even point is around 35%, meaning that you would only need to be successful in 1 out of 3 attempts for it to be worth it. Since 2000, 60% of guys who have attempted were successful! Also, he looks at each attempt, showing the context and the reactions by people involved. Overall, an excellent read.

It does raise a couple of questions though. If the average break even point is 35%, then why don't people attempt to steal home more? It's likely that more steals would make opposing players more aware of them, thus lowering the success rate. However, the current success is "too high" in relation to the break even point, meaning that teams could afford to try and steal home a little more.

6 months ago 1753738656_110919ebe9_o_tiny vivaelpujols 5 comments 1 recs  | 

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I guess

but I wouldn’t think the risk is that high, as long as the batter doesn’t swing.

St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008

by vivaelpujols on May 24, 2009 1:35 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Stealing Home attempts prolly happened under unusual conditions...

Yadi throws out 50% base stealers, it’s hard to say that if people frequently tried to steal home it would be easier to steal than 2nd.

"How depressing is it being you? Would you equate it to being a lifelong Cubs fan?"

by rocKStark5 on May 25, 2009 3:22 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I agree with that

My thinking is that players only steal home when it is a “sure thing”, and they are successful 60% of the time. However, if they attempted more steals in some borderline situations, their overall success rate would drop, but it would still likely be above the break even point so it would be profitable.

St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008

by vivaelpujols on May 25, 2009 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I do think it's funny Andy Pettitte is on that list....3 times.

"How depressing is it being you? Would you equate it to being a lifelong Cubs fan?"

by rocKStark5 on May 25, 2009 3:25 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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