White Sox, Padres agree on trade for Peavy, await pitcher's decision

Wow. I didn't see this one coming. If this is true, I would think Aaron Poreda and Gordon Beckham would be going over to San Diego. Maybe someone more familiar with the White Sox farm system can enlighten me, but I'd say anything less than Beckham in return would be a little disappointing for Padre fans, and anything not including Beckham would be a coup the White Sox.

Of course, the ball is in Peavy's court. Would he pitch in the AL? And in one of the more hitter friendly ballparks? And perhaps worse yet, play for Ozzie Guillen?

over 2 years ago erik 12 comments 0 recs |

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Peavy

Three more years at about $17M, plus a pro-rated portion of $8M this year.

What’s Peavy worth going forward? By Fangraphs’ FIP, he’s been worth 5, 4, 6, and 3 wins since 2005. That’s an average of 4.5 WAR. Weight it, well, is similar. $17M is right around a 4.5 WAR player, maybe more like 4.0 WAR (nitpicking). No excess value there over signing free agents. There’s somewhere around $8M in excess value this year.

Assuming the Padres don’t kick in any money, the Sox are trading some package of prospects for $8M. My guess is those prospects can be assumed to earn more than $8M in excess value going forward, although we can’t know because we don’t know the prospects yet.

Now, obviously the White Sox can’t go out and sign someone of Peavy’s talent right now, so they’re also paying for the ability to bring someone in immediately. But there are other options and they could have signed someone this past offseason or waited until the upcoming offseason. With limited information, seems like the Sox aren’t getting a great deal.

There’s also the question of Peavy’s talent. PETCO is very friendly to pitchers, and we need to take a close look at what we expect his ERA to look like in a neutral park, and against lineups that include DHs. (Please do not simply quote home and road numbers. Further analysis is needed.) My guess is that Peavy’s more like a 3.50 ERA guy these days, and perhaps more like a 3.75 guy with Chicago’s friendliness to homeruns. Those are basically WAGs though.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on May 21, 2009 10:56 AM EDT reply actions

WAG = Wild Ass Guess?

by mattybobo on May 21, 2009 11:03 AM EDT up reply actions

Yes.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on May 21, 2009 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions

Peavy's traditionally put up very low HR/FB numbers

In the 9% range, although he was at 5% in 2007 and 11% last year. I’m guessing that’s largely a Petco influence more than anything. At the Cell, he’s like to see that number to the other side of average.

So I think you’re right to expect more homers.

by Dan Turkenkopf on May 21, 2009 11:28 AM EDT up reply actions

Can Beckham be traded yet?

I thought that it had to be a year from the draft before a trade could happen?

by indakind on May 21, 2009 10:56 AM EDT reply actions

i think you are right. it would have to be after June 8th or

godfather of futureredbirds.net

by erik on May 21, 2009 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions

Can they get around it with a PTBNL?

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on May 21, 2009 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions

yes. but i find it unlikely beckham is going anywhere.

White Sox Minor League Updates: http://twitter.com/SouthSidelarry

by larry on May 21, 2009 11:23 AM EDT up reply actions

I am not sure on the rules

but I think you might be able to circumvent it with the PTBNL. However, I would think that the commisioners office might take a dim view on those shenanigans.

by indakind on May 21, 2009 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions

I think the two others are pitching prospects, according to Yahoo

I would think that means their two draft picks from last year, Daniel Hudson and Dexter Carter.

by Daniel Berlyn on May 21, 2009 12:56 PM EDT up reply actions

i would grab allen if i were the padres.

poreda, richard, allen, and carter is probably a reasonable guess.

as further information, i got to talk to white sox assistant GM rick hahn on tuesday and he stated that flowers and beckham were near untouchable (no one is ever actually untouchable). i had thought it was interesting that hahn stated poreda was the most asked about by other teams but didn’t mention poreda with those two. this sort of answers why.

White Sox Minor League Updates: http://twitter.com/SouthSidelarry

by larry on May 21, 2009 1:20 PM EDT up reply actions

i would note, of course, that daniel is correct that the others are pitching prospects.

i might want gregory infante instead of hudson. john ely is another possible. charlie leesman a longshot, though a lefty with his velocity might entice.

White Sox Minor League Updates: http://twitter.com/SouthSidelarry

by larry on May 21, 2009 1:23 PM EDT up reply actions