Beyond the Box Score: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Sports blogs for fans, by fans.
Around SBN: Spencer Hall's Sports Meme Power Rankings

News flash: The Cardinals' middle infield defense is bad

"I'm....I'm not really comfortable here."

More photos » by Tom Gannam - AP

"I'm....I'm not really comfortable here."

After the first month of the season, the St. Louis Cardinals have the best record in baseball. Their offense has been outstanding. Despite losing Chris Carpenter to the DL (yet again), their pitching has been surprisingly good. Everything seems to be clicking. Well, almost everything. There's something rotten in St. Louis, and it's their defense. Going into Sunday, the Cardinals have a major league leading 22 errors.

Poking around at Fangraphs,  the errors been worth -4.4 runs. That's using MGL's error runs stat, a component of UZR, with is simply defined as "the number of runs above or below average a fielder is, determined by the number of errors he makes as compared to an average fielder at that position given the same distribution of balls in play."  Five of the errors have come from new acquisition Khalil Greene. Four have come from outfielder turned second baseman Skip Schumaker. Total, the duo have -2.2 error runs.

Errors can be overblown at times, and fielding is not just about avoiding errors, but it's also about range, throwing and turning double plays. Obviously, good infielders make more plays on balls hit in their vicinity more than the average fielder.

What I'm trying to get to is the Cardinals middle infield defense has been dreadful. In a winter where we saw defense become the new "Moneyball", the Cardinals expressed zero interest in resigning Cesar Izturis, whose glove was worth to them +9.1 runs in 2008 according to UZR. They ran off Adam Kennedy due to some weird personality issues with the manager, and Kennedy's glove was worth +10.6 runs in '08. Now it's only May, but newly acquired Khalil Greene, thought to be an upgrade with the bat, has a -3.8 UZR to go with a .310 wOBA. Only Yuniesky Betancourt has been worse among regular shortstops. (-4.1).

Now I have to hand it to the Cardinals for thinking out of the box by trying to convert Schumaker from the outfield to second base, but the experiment is not working at all right now, with Skip at -4.0 runs, worst among every day second baseman. It's also worth noting the Cardinals also at times have used Schumaker as a defensive replacement at times in left field, and apparently back and forth movement is messing with his head, as his UZR -2.9 in just 22.1 innings. He was worth +8.1 runs in left last year.  Maybe it's just some sample size oddity, but I found it interesting.

I'd expect both players should seem some sort of improvement. I mean, their UZR per 150 games total is -81 runs (!!!), but Greene's glove has been in decline for a while now, and while no one expected Schumaker to be Mark Ellis after just a month or two, at this rate he'll make Jeff Kent blush. I'd still like to see if Schumaker can make the conversion happen, but the Cardinals may not be able to afford the luxury of waiting and see if it works out if they want to keep their lead in the NL Central.

Last I heard,  this guy is looking for a job. So is this guy.

 

0 recs  |  Comment 21 comments |

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

Except,

the cardinals “backup” middle infielders, Joe Thurston and Brian Barden have been outstanding.

Thurston’s UZR/150 at second base so far this year is +22.8 and he is sitting pretty at .364 wOBA. Meanwhile, Barden has been around 0 at SS on defense (and ridiculously good at third), while he has already contributed 4.3(!) runs with the bat. Combined, the two of them have almost paid for Khalil Greene’s salary contributing around 1.1 WAR.

Also, they have Brendan Ryan as another backup SS and he has a career UZR/150 of 12.4 (though supposedly his defense has been bad this season so far), and Tyler Greene was recently called up to pick up the slack.

Skip Schumaker has recieved less than 2/3 of the innings at second base so far this season, and Greene has been getting plenty of time off, playing in only 17 of 25 games this season. They are eminently replaceable now and will either turn it around or not. Either way they will fail to be worth -80 runs on defense this season.

Space.

It's a problem we face.

So we never go anywhere.

We just stay in one place.

by hazel on May 2, 2009 10:15 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

i thought thurston

might be an interesting f.a.t player and he has done a pretty good job so far, so maybe looking outside for help is unnecessary. i don’t think thurston is quite this good, his total zone numbers for the minors for the last three seasons is 7, -3, -3. barden is obviously playing way over his head right now, but his defense was advertised as good. his tz #’s in the minors at third the last three years were 9, 10, 11.

Greene is up b/c Ryan is on the DL, and he is a good defender. TZ has him at 14, 22 and -5 per 150 over the last three years. however his plate discipline is less than acceptable, at least until this year so far. we’ll see. he was a 1st round pick and maybe is a late-bloomer. i hope so, at least.

tlr is doing an ok job of rotating and minimizing the damage but 130+ starts for khalil and maybe 100+ for schu looks to be in order at the present, barring a mid-season trade. if so, it could cost them a couple of games.

none of those players have the types of sticks you really want in the lineup regularly, but then again neither were izturis and kennedy. i think in the end they have to move schumaker and ankiel. rasmus is +2 already.

by erik on May 2, 2009 10:50 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

hahahaha

I just realized that was a picture of Rick. I thought it was a picture of you. I was thinking to myself that Erik looks like a hoosier dirt ball.

Stat Whore

by FlimtotheFlam on May 4, 2009 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

FWIW

IIRC schumaker was about minus4 runs very early in the season (best data I can find in 8 seconds of searching says he was -2.9 on april 13th), after the first week of the season (7 games). If that’s the case, the fact that he’s STILL only a net minus 4 runs after 24 games means that he’s trending the right way, so there’s hope. he’s still only been a second baseman for about 2 months.

Caveat, because of MLB’s weird scheduling this year I’ve only been able to see about 2/3 of the games (despite paying for both extra innings AND mlb.tv), but I’ve read almost every game thread comment at VEB, and the folks there aren’t prone to pulling punches when someone flubs a defensive play. And he’s made some amazing plays on pop flies- I’m not sure how UZR handles those, because it’s such a black box. I’m eagerly awaiting the billjamesonline update with 2009 data, because they use dewan’s system which includes FB, Gb and DP data.

Anyway, you also omitted the fact that by UZR, Cesar Izturis has been -1.1 over that same time period, so he’s not exactly tearing it up himself. The overall difference between khalil and Izturis so far has been 0.1 win, which is pretty irrelevant; it’s way to early to say the greene trade was bad. They paid more for greene, but he has a potential upside which is pretty exciting.

Also, for the thousandth time or so, I’ll reiterate that the fact that the “UZR” used at fangraphs isn’t an open formula AFAIK, making the whole thing a little sketchy. Historical data seems to change pretty regularly. Until there is some kind of baseline + change log, analysts should not take it too seriously.

- "I went at it and didn’t slow down, so it kind of bounced off me." -Lil' Dunc

by SleepyCA on May 3, 2009 1:38 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I’m eagerly awaiting the billjamesonline update with 2009 data, because they use dewan’s system which includes FB, Gb and DP data.

Fangraphs UZR did add DPs. Not following you on the element of FB/GB data that you feel is being excluded. Tango also submitted that +/- is a subset of UZR. Fangraphs uses BIS as a source too. This says nothing of proprietary data and/or formulas, but what is +/- (openly?) showing that UZR isn’t?

by astrostl on May 11, 2009 10:50 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I know what the numbers have been saying about Skip so far this season but,

I have watched most of the games this year, and he seems to make all the plays that a normal 2B would make. And because he has a very strong arm he has made a few plays that I don’t think a 2B would normally have made.

I think his defense has been fine. Now SS has been horrific and I didn’t need FanGraphs to tell me that. Just watch a game or two and Greene just keeps making mistakes, plus he’s not hitting now either. Awesome, so glad the cardinals went dumpster diving for a SS

by thoran85 on May 3, 2009 10:57 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Erik doesn't even know what a baseball looks like.

And the Cardinals were silly to weigh more than one season when they dealt for Greene. 3 win shortstops become replacement level over night all the time.

by R.J. Anderson on May 3, 2009 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Translation:

Greene’s better than this.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on May 3, 2009 8:36 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

Just want to say this about Khalil

He has just been unlucky this year with his bat this year. He is BB% at a rate of 12.2 (7.0 career) and Striking Out at 13.8%(21.5 %) with a BABIP of .222(.283). So if he can keep those BB/K rates he will be fine.

Stat Whore

by FlimtotheFlam on May 4, 2009 1:16 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

1 month's worth of UZR data doesn't mean anything

1) It doesn’t come close to measuring the true talent level of a player because it is such a small sample size
2) The error bars in UZR-type metrics are exaggerated in such a small sample size

Mitchel Lichtman actually suggested taking the preseason projections for each player, and extrapolating them to the amount of innings those players have at their positions. His final numbers had the Cardinals infield at +12 so far.

St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008

by vivaelpujols on May 3, 2009 3:17 PM EDT reply actions   1 recs

cardinal fans up in arms

remember i am one of you.

trading for khalil greene was a good idea, but his defense has been declining for two consecutive seasons, and going on three so far.

skip schumaker is a bad defensive 2b. i like the idea of moving him there, it’s innovative but it’s probably not going to work.

sure, the usual caveats apply. all i’m saying is to this point, the middle infield defense has sucked and probably will continue to suck for the reasons i just mentioned.

by erik on May 3, 2009 5:03 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

As an educated baseball fan

I can’t see how you thought moving Schumaker was at all a good idea, given the failure of such moves in the past.

I have never been a fan of the move whatsover. Just because a guy played a little second base like 33456 years ago in college doesn’t justify moving a player rightward on the defensive spectrum.

by Hambone Willis on May 4, 2009 5:00 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's been pointed out before, but moving from CF (which Schumaker had the skills to play and had played a bunch) to 2B isn't a rightward shift ont he spectrum.

No way anyone should expect him to pick it up in a month or even a full season. But it’s certainly reasonable to try it.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on May 4, 2009 8:08 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

have there been failures in the past?

Who?

- "I went at it and didn’t slow down, so it kind of bounced off me." -Lil' Dunc

by SleepyCA on May 6, 2009 2:53 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Skip's errors
Five of the errors have come from new acquisition Khalil Greene. Four have come from outfielder turned second baseman Skip Schumaker.

Just curious where you are getting 4 errors for Skip???

He has 2 this year. One at second and one in LF.

by Tim B on May 3, 2009 8:43 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

good catch

maybe he meant to say albert pujols has 4?

- "I went at it and didn’t slow down, so it kind of bounced off me." -Lil' Dunc

by SleepyCA on May 3, 2009 11:52 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I knew Skip was going to be bad but....

Schumaker has been better than I thought he would be at 2B. Before the season started I thought he would be a negative 20 to 30 run player defensively. I think he can be better than that though. If you dig a little deeper at his UZR numbers you see that all his negative value has been at the expense of his range runs. Which will improve with time and practice. Now if you look at his RF/9 it is 5.3 which is excellent for a 2B when Mark Ellis has 5.7.

 I am much more concerned about when he goes back to LF. He has looked right out bad at times on simple pop ups and catches. I think he is concentrating so much on being a 2B that putting him in LF is a determent.

This overall is probably the worst fielding Cardinal team that I have seen in a long time. We are normally in the top third at least of teams in terms of fielding. I think Oquendo going to the WBC didn’t help at all. Hopefully over time this starts to level off. I am concerned about Khalil though. He really needs to step up his game. He looks lazy out there and his range is pitiful. But LaRussa does some goofy switches out there that completely fail so he needs to take some of the blame there.

In the end it is honestly too early to being talking about Defensive stats in any serious continuation to me.

Stat Whore

by FlimtotheFlam on May 4, 2009 1:06 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

We use numbers and stuff.
Community Guidelines
Why be a member?
Start posting on Beyond the Box Score »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recent FanPosts

Leopold_butter_scotch_southpark_small
Using the TVC
Small
Determining Batted Ball Rates using Pitch Type and Location
Small
a new xBABIP calculator
Img587561916661595
Top 15 high school MLB draft prospects
Small
PZR-based Win Values 2001-2006
Small
The "30 parks on a budget" challenge
Sunflower_small
World Series Simulation, Game #6
Small
JT20 Dynasty League
E52205a2_small
New Look
Sth70021_small
Exploring Hit f/x, Albeit Badly

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

FanShots

Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.

Recent FanShots

Primer on BaseRuns
Cool Baseball Infographics
ESPN's Jerry Crasnick on defensive metrics
I’m also a follower, since Brian Bannister’s on our team, of sabermetric st...
Top Ten Baseball-Reference.com's Sponsorships
Primer on Linear Weights
JC Bradbury on "Hot Stove Myths"
Everyone Should Learn to Throw a Cutter
Criminals of WAR
Ten statisticians you should know about

+ New FanShot All FanShots >

BtB on Twitter

Main Feed: @BtBScore

Tommy B: @tommy_bennett
Sky: @BtB_Sky
Dan: @dturkenk
Harry: @harrypav
Jinaz: @jinazreds
Jack: @jh_moore
Erik: @Erik_Manning
Tommy R: @trancel
Justin: @justinbopp

Subscribe to BtB via Email

Enter your email address:

Delivered by FeedBurner

BtB Goes Social


Managers

Nando_small R.J. Anderson

Limes_125_small Sky Kalkman

E52205a2_small Tommy Bennett

Editors

Face_small Harry Pavlidis

Rawlings_baseball_bigger_small Dan Turkenkopf

770insig_small Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal)

Aviles_small Justin Bopp

Authors

Banny_small erik

Raysring1_small Tommy Rancel

Jinaz-reds-avatar_small JinAZ

Jmlogo_small Jack Moore

1753738656_110919ebe9_o_small vivaelpujols

1_small Graham

Baseball_small Mike Rogers

Redcap_small SFiercex4

Small Patrick Clark

Walter_album_small Walter Fulbright