I'll post more on this at BtB, but after hearing the annual clamoring for a high school pitcher for a while at my site and other Cardinal related sites, I ranted a little bit at my blog, Future Redbirds. The fact is, high school pitchers are lousy gambles. Between 1990-1999, only 3% of all high school pitchers drafted in the first round starred for their team while under team control. Including those players, only 8% became regulars for their team, in other words pitchers who produced around 2 wins above replacement per season or better. 70% of all first round high school draft picks busted. On a whole, they were worth an average of .438 WAR per year. Hitters on the other hand - college or high school - had an average nearly double that.