A Word On Drafting High School Pitchers

I'll post more on this at BtB, but after hearing the annual clamoring for a high school pitcher for a while at my site and other Cardinal related sites, I ranted a little bit at my blog, Future Redbirds. The fact is, high school pitchers are lousy gambles.

Between 1990-1999, only 3% of all high school pitchers drafted in the first round starred for their team while under team control. Including those players, only 8% became regulars for their team, in other words pitchers who produced around 2 wins above replacement per season or better.

70% of all first round high school draft picks busted. On a whole, they were worth an average of .438 WAR per year. Hitters on the other hand - college or high school - had an average nearly double that.

over 2 years ago erik 18 comments 0 recs |

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And then there was 2002, the year of the H.S. pitcher

Pick Player
3 Chris Gruler
4 Adam Loewen
5 Clint Everts
6 Zack Greinke
15 Scott Kazmir
17 Cole Hamels
25 Matt Cain

by Jeff Zimmerman on May 19, 2009 5:06 PM EDT reply actions

It’s a real shame Loewen had those injury problems, he could have been a really great pitcher.

When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips

Proud father of Juan Carlos Perez. Think Albert Pujols at second.

by marcello on May 19, 2009 6:33 PM EDT up reply actions

i think that HS pitchers were only bad gambles in 90s because they were overvalued. after monyeball came out and every became hip to what beane was doing, high school pitchers weren’t drafted as much and ended up being a better value. only the very best ones were drafted in the first round. there’s nothing inherently bad about drafting HS pitchers. it’s about where you draft them. drafting the best HS pitcher in the country in the 30th round of the draft would obviously be smart. so would drafting the third best HS pitcher in the country in the 30th round. the problem in the 90s was that the third best HS pitcher in the country was one of the first 5-10 guys picked in the draft or something.

by Matt Swartz on May 19, 2009 6:19 PM EDT reply actions

High School pitchers are fine

The problem with the data is that we are using data is now 10+ years old. Teams wised up about how to develop younger arms. High school arms used to be brought through the system just like college arms were. They flopped out at higher rates due to injuries. Now days teams develop smarter. Of course there is also the money…. its a lot larger of a check these guys are going to get. The top arms never go to college anymore. Heck, of the top 20 high school arms, maybe 3 or 4 of them wind up going to college. To suggest that high school pitchers is still risky is one thing, but to suggest it because of data based upon 10+ years ago doesn’t really hold much water because of how much has changed since those days.

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by dougdirt on May 19, 2009 7:19 PM EDT reply actions

Does the data show that fewer HS pitchers are being picked?

Or, I guess your point about fewer HSers going to college would mean that the same number of HS pitchers are being picked these days, but the pool is larger, so a smaller percentage of the HS pitcher pool is being drafted early?

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on May 19, 2009 8:07 PM EDT up reply actions

seems rather anecdotal

do you have data to argue your case?

godfather of futureredbirds.net

by erik on May 20, 2009 10:13 AM EDT up reply actions

oh, and stephen strasburg says

hello. ;-)

godfather of futureredbirds.net

by erik on May 20, 2009 10:26 AM EDT up reply actions

and the reason we have to go off of ten year old data

is because many of these pitchers drafted in this decade haven’t even pitched for six years yet. the jury is still sort of out on several pitchers drafted this decade, even if things are looking pretty rosy so far for them, things still could fall apart.

But for what it’s worth, I looked up 2000-2004 data. I only ran HS’ers so I don’t know how it will compare with the other groupings. The same amount of HS pitchers being drafted in the 90’s in the first round, 20%. This time, the average WAR per season was .8, as there have been some great pitchers found out of the high school ranks – the ones Jeff mentioned, as well as Adam Wainwright, Chad Billingsley and Jon Danks. A lot can still change, Phil Hughes could become a great pitcher, and Cole Hamels could end up tanking it the next couple of seasons, so it’s not really definitive yet, but things are looking a lot better.

We still have 21 out of 29 who so far have been zeros or thereabouts, a 72.4% failure rate, but as I said there are still some who have time to turn it around.

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by erik on May 20, 2009 10:46 AM EDT up reply actions

The only reason I remember 2002 is because on Moneyball

There is a lot of ragging on HS pitching in the book and Beane can’t figure out why they are taken. Chavez, the A’s pick, was sandwiched between Hamels and Kazmir.

by Jeff Zimmerman on May 20, 2009 11:40 AM EDT up reply actions

.8, eh?

So they are performing at the same rate as high school bats from the nineties, even though some guys have yet to even start their careers? That pretty much undercuts the main point of your article.

And that 72.4% rate should not be called failure. You’ve got guys like Elbert and Hurley who still have plenty of time to have good major league careers. Shoot, even Jeff Allison could have a useful major league career.

Even someone like Boof Bonser, who falls into the “failure” category has been worth $16 million over 3 years according to fangraphs win value.

by aCone419 on May 20, 2009 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions