Who made their 1st round picks count?
First round picks are so cool. They get all the buzz and make all the money. The average signing bonus for a first round pick last year was $2.59 million, a number inflated by several teams ignoring MLB's little slot bonus rules. If this decade is anything like the last, two-thirds of these expensive little balls of potential will produce zilch for their drafting club. That is a lot of money to throw at such a risky investment. So what teams beat the system? Is there anything we can learn from what they did?
First let's see how the different teams around baseball did with their first round picks over the last decade. The wins above replacement totals were found at BaseballProjection.com. The WAR totals are for the players' first six seasons in the majors, which is when they are still under their team's control. After those six years, they hit the free agent market and more often than not cease to be bargain. Because there were four expansion teams added and some teams lose picks because they sign type A free agents, I went ahead and posted the average WAR per team's picks and divided them by six to determine how much a pick was worth a team per year.
| TEAM | WAR | Avg. per yr. |
| BOS | 79.8 | 1.48 |
| SEA | 78.6 | 1.45 |
| TOR | 99.9 | 1.39 |
| OAK | 89.4 | 1.24 |
| HOU | 58.9 | 1.09 |
| LAA | 44.3 | 1.05 |
| FLA | 47 | 0.979 |
| ATL | 33.5 | 0.931 |
| STL | 71.5 | 0.917 |
| COL | 43.6 | 0.908 |
| CLE | 48.6 | 0.900 |
| NYY | 46 | 0.852 |
| CHC | 47.4 | 0.718 |
| MIN | 40.3 | 0.672 |
| MIL | 37.9 | 0.632 |
| PHI | 28.5 | 0.528 |
| SD | 32.9 | 0.498 |
| CIN | 23.2 | 0.483 |
| PIT | 28.4 | 0.473 |
| BAL | 32.8 | 0.456 |
| DET | 22.4 | 0.414 |
| MTL | 25.8 | 0.391 |
| CHW | 23.9 | 0.362 |
| NYM | 20.4 | 0.309 |
| LAD | 11.2 | 0.267 |
| TEX | 6.9 | 0.164 |
| KC | 10.7 | 0.149 |
| SFG | 0.6 | 0.008 |
| ARI | 0.1 | 0.005 |
| TB | 0 | 0 |
It's as if the Giants had a monkey pull a name out of hat every year, but I think the monkey would've yielded better results. Moving along to what teams did right. We'll bypass Seattle and Boston, whose numbers are A-Rod and Nomar inflated. Rodriguez might be the best 1st overall pick ever, while Boston does deserve credit for taking Nomar 12th overall as well as drafting Trot Nixon, who was worth about 3 WAR per year while under team control. Aaron Sele and Adam Everett were decent picks as well.
You can see why it is no small wonder that Tony La Cava's name gets bandied about whenever a GM position opens up, the man knows talent when he sees it. With his help, the Blue Jays built up a pretty impressive farm system, correctly hitting on their first round picks more than your average team. Take a look:
| Yr. | Pick | Team | Player | Position | HS/COL | WAR |
| 90 | 22 | TOR | STEVE KARSAY | RHP | HS | 4.1 |
| 91 | 16 | TOR | SHAWN GREEN | OF | HS | 11.2 |
| 92 | 19 | TOR | SHANNON STEWART | OF | HS | 16.8 |
| 92 | 25 | TOR | TODD STEVERSON | OF | COL | 0 |
| 93 | 15 | TOR | CHRIS CARPENTER | RHP | HS | 6.9 |
| 94 | 28 | TOR | KEVIN WITT | SS | HS | 0 |
| 95 | 17 | TOR | ROY HALLADAY |
RHP | HS | 19.8 |
| 96 | 4 | TOR | BILLY KOCH |
RHP | COL | 5.8 |
| 96 | 16 | TOR | JOE LAWRENCE | SS | HS | 0 |
| 97 | 5 | TOR | VERNON WELLS | OF | HS | 19.5 |
| 98 | 8 | TOR | FELIPE LOPEZ | SS | HS | 4.1 |
| 99 | 19 | TOR | ALEX RIOS | OF | HS | 11.7 |
That is a pretty good cast of players, and what impresses me that many of these good picks were made in the second half of the first round. What also sticks out to me is Toronto's preference for toolsy high schoolers as compared to the team's current strategy, which has been mostly college heavy and viewed as "safe". We'll talk about this in a future post, but high school pitchers are extremely risky picks, and yet the Blue Jays identified two Cy Young winners while they were still teenagers. That's pretty good.
The A's did pretty well for themselves as well.
| Yr. | Pick | Team | Player | Position | HS/COL | WAR |
| 90 | 14 | OAK | TODD VAN POPPEL | RHP | HS | 0 |
| 90 | 26 | OAK | DONALD PETERS | RHP | COL | 0 |
| 91 | 26 | OAK | BRENT GATES | SS | COL | 3.8 |
| 92 | 20 | OAK | BENJI GRIGSBY | RHP | COL | 0 |
| 93 | 25 | OAK | JOHN WASDIN | RHP | COL | 2.6 |
| 94 | 2 | OAK | BEN GRIEVE | OF | HS | 8.4 |
| 95 | 5 | OAK | ARIEL PRIETO | RHP | CUBA | 2.9 |
| 96 | 10 | OAK | ERIC CHAVEZ | 3B | HS | 26.7 |
| 97 | 11 | OAK | CHRIS ENOCHS | RHP | COL | 0 |
| 97 | 21 | OAK | ERIC DUBOSE | LHP | COL | 1.3 |
| 98 | 2 | OAK | MARK MULDER | LHP | COL | 19.6 |
| 99 | 9 | OAK | BARRY ZITO | LHP | COL | 24.1 |
Things were going array in Oakland with Dick Bogard at the helm of the scouting department, then Grady Fuson stepped on the scene in 1995 and started to turn things around. Well, that is until he famously went all anti-Moneyball and drafted Jeremy Bonderman and then shortly thereafter found himself canned by Billy Beane. The thing is, his first round picks at least were - unknowingly or not - pretty saber-slanted. High school hitters and college lefties are the safest of picks outside of college hitters. Again, we'll get into that a little more next later.
I don't think we can draw any hard conclusions from looking at the top two teams, but we'll stop there for now. In Toronto's case at least, it seems to be that there was some gold-standard scouting going on. Next time we'll look at some of the top teams and maybe some of the bottom feeders and see if we can find some more clues.
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Interesting piece. Mind if I ask what time frame we are covering here so I can be clear? Is it the just the 1990’s ? Possibly a column the total War divided by years team was actually in existence (Fla, Dever, Az, TB) so expansion teams and be easily compared to others?
Where is my beer & chili dog?
by daveinexile on May 18, 2009 1:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
90-99 were the years, and I'll update the chart to reflect how much
WAR a pick was worth per season to that team.
godfather of futureredbirds.net
by erik on May 18, 2009 2:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
A couple of things...
1) Did you only count WAR achieved with the team the player was originally drafted by?
2) How do you value first round draft picks traded for established talent?
I’m a fan of the Mets and two of their 90’s draft picks — Preston Wilson and Terrance Long — were involved for Mike Piazza and Kenny Rogers respectively. Piazza posted a 5.6 WAR for the Mets in 1998 and Rogers was worth 1.3 in 1999 (and a bases loaded walk to end the NLCS — GUH). While Wilson and Long didn’t accumulate any value with the Mets, they turned out to be valuable chips in the end.
I do realize a study considering trades would be exceedingly difficult. For instance, Piazza was acquired in exchange for Wilson, Ed Yarnall and Geoff Goetz meaning that Wilson shouldn’t assume Piazza’s full ‘98 value; however, Wilson was considered the centerpiece of that deal, so he shouldn’t account for a mere one-third of Piazza’s WAR either.
by All Shook Down on May 18, 2009 6:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
that might be worth looking into
but you’re right, it would take time. i think this shows what scouting departments knew what they were doing with their crucial picks.
godfather of futureredbirds.net
by erik on May 18, 2009 11:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Request
Eric, do you have the average pick position for each team for these players. We should see teams with better average picks have better WAR values, but I don’t think it is the case.
by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on May 18, 2009 7:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
sure thing
and i don’t think it’s the case, either. The Giants have the same average pick as the Blue Jays.
godfather of futureredbirds.net
by erik on May 18, 2009 11:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
the tinyurl link is an edit grid doc
for your perusal, should’ve explained.
godfather of futureredbirds.net
by erik on May 18, 2009 11:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks, that says a lot.
Kinda what I expected. KC had the same average pick as Oakland, but 80 less WAR.
by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on May 19, 2009 1:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

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