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Around SBN: 2012 Africa Cup Of Nations Final

Dave Cameron expands on an article he wrote for the Wall Street Journal, discussing whether the Mariners should trade Ichiro. As usual, Dave covers all the angles, but the most important line in the whole article is this one:

"I'm not advocating giving him away..."

So many times when I come across articles like this one (including when I've written them) there's a backlash in the comments about the fact that trading a player would leave a hole or that the team can still afford him so why trade him? But you need to think about what's coming back in a trade. Every time.

With the M's, they have a lot of outfield depth, so they can look to fill other holes (infielders, for example). But even if they didn't have that depth, they could trade Ichiro for -- get this -- another outfielder! And sure, they can still afford to pay Ichiro and he's not overpaid by much ($17M per year) if at all. But the M's, especially with their new, smart GM, could probably spend that $17M more wisely.

As for arguing that Ichiro's declining:

"As much as we love the guy and what he’s given to the team, there are signs of decline. In his first five seasons in the U.S., Ichiro posted an Isolated Slugging percentage of .100 or higher four times. He hasn’t done it since, going four straight seasons with essentially no power. He’s drawn three unintentional walks so far this year, putting him on pace to draw ~16 for the season. He usually draws between 25 and 35. He’s been caught stealing three times in eight attempts so far this year after being thrown out four times in 47 attempts last year.

During his first four years in the majors, he posted a wOBA of .360, making him a significantly above average hitter. During the last 3 seasons and the start of this year, he’s posted a wOBA of .348, making him a good but not great hitter. 12 points of wOBA adds up to around six runs over the course of a full season, so that offensive dropoff is equal to a loss of about half a win per year. "

over 2 years ago Limes_125_tiny Sky Kalkman 17 comments 0 recs  | 

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I've been all for trading Ichi for a year or two now

Now, with Ackley probably coming in, might as well get some prospects to help the rest of the organization

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by Zach Sanders on May 16, 2009 10:58 PM EDT reply actions  

Ichiro for Jose Guillen.

Straight up.

I’ll take it to Dayton.

If you were thinking, you wouldn't have thought that.

by Warden11 on May 17, 2009 12:31 AM EDT up reply actions  

no way

Guillen has a .400 OBP right now and is making the critics eat their words!!!1111

I DARE YOU TO CHALLENGE THIS!

Um, yeah… just ignore that minus sign in front of his defense or WAR (as of this post)

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by Matt Klaassen on May 17, 2009 9:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

Trade Ichiro for what?

He’s past his prime and is signed for the next few years. When do those guys ever get traded? Especially for value?

by cwyers on May 17, 2009 3:53 AM EDT reply actions  

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by Matt Klaassen on May 17, 2009 9:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

The thing is, I think you can say this about just about anyone.

I don’t think there should be any such thing as a player who’s off limits. I agree almost completely with Cameron, but I think a lot of it shouldn’t need to be said.

by philkid3 on May 17, 2009 4:40 AM EDT reply actions  

except for Pujols

St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008

by vivaelpujols on May 17, 2009 4:44 AM EDT up reply actions  

You wouldn't take Greinke+Butler?

If you were thinking, you wouldn't have thought that.

by Warden11 on May 17, 2009 11:52 AM EDT up reply actions  

No, I wouldn't

When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips

Proud father of Juan Carlos Perez. Think Albert Pujols at second.

by marcello on May 17, 2009 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions  

Butler doesn't have much value

St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008

by vivaelpujols on May 17, 2009 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

I would rather get Grienke + Aviles

St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008

by vivaelpujols on May 19, 2009 5:36 AM EDT up reply actions  

wow

I think Aviles is better than h e’s shown this season, but really?

Butler probably won’t be a superduperstar, but he’s turned it on a bit this season and is still pretty young. I can def. see him as a 3 WAR player, whereas Aviles is looking like a guy who will be lucky to get close to 2 ever again.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by Matt Klaassen on May 19, 2009 10:18 AM EDT up reply actions  

The Cards have Wallace at first

And a black hole at short. Plus Aviles was worth like 5 WAR last year.

St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008

by vivaelpujols on May 19, 2009 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions  

There is a trade package for which a GM would deal Pujols to another team.

Such a package exists (in theory) for every player. The question is usually whether anyone is willing to offer such a package. Sure, you trade Ichiro (or anyone) if you’re offered a good deal. But the article even says:

The 35 year old Ichiro isn’t quite as good as the 28 year old Ichiro. That shouldn’t be a big surprise, honestly. He’s still very good, one of the best right fielders in the game, but we haven’t seen the MVP caliber Ichiro since 2004, and it’s probably not a very good bet that we’ll ever see him perform at that level again.

So, the Mariners new management faces a summer of transition, where they continue to try to remake the roster to eliminate the errors of the past regime. During this transition, they’ll have to evaluate how each player fits on the roster going forward. That process needs to include the understanding that Ichiro is probably more like a +3.5 to +4 win player going forward than the +5 win player he’s been historically. For this team, right now, should they hang onto a 35-year-old +4 win outfielder?

At a 3.5-4 win player at $17 million, he’s basically worth his salary, or maybe even less. (As the contract goes on, “less” becomes more likely.) So there’s very little incentive for another team to give the M’s a package that makes the Ms a better team, because they still have to pay Ichiro. They don’t gain any value that way.

by cwyers on May 17, 2009 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions  

Of course

just about anyone can be traded if the price is right. the question is . how likely is it to get the right price for him?

The Yanks probably would trade for him if they’re not asking for a ton. but that’s highly unlikely. and the Yanks’ system is basically just a bunch of interesting guys with good upsdies but also huge questionmarks.

by RollingWave on May 17, 2009 12:31 PM EDT reply actions  

It's an interesting question.

Of course, it’s not all up to the Mariners. They have to find a trading partner willing to give up enough value to make the trade worthwhile. I’m not sure that you could get fair value for Ichiro right now.

Anyone care to throw out some half-way realistic trade scenarios?

by Brendan Scolari on May 18, 2009 5:09 AM EDT reply actions  

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