FG: Fielding the Real Reason for Texas's Improved Run Prevention

Sky touched on this a little when discussing Kevin Millwood earlier, and Dave Cameron put together an article about it at FanGraphs.

Texas right now is off to a better start than they've had in about half a decade, and their improved run prevention has been well documented. The credit is usually given to the pitching, thanks to a better ERA, but, as Cameron points out, the real strength has been the defense. The pitching, in fact, has a worse FIP thus far in 2009 (5.17) than it did in 2008 (4.83).

A few outlets roundly criticized the idea of moving Michael Young and calling up Elvis Andrus, but UZR would suggest it's been great so far, as Andrus has put up an 8.9 UZR/150, significantly better than Young in 2008, while Young has struggled at third but is still beating the assortment of players who spent time their last year. Meanwhile, it moved Chris Davis over to first, where he's put up a 24 UZR/150. For the team, that's a -51.7 UZR last year to 9.5 this year.

So the next time another media member talks about the Rangers finally getting great pitching, you can smile and know it's actually that they're finally getting great fielding.

5 months ago philkid3 10 comments 0 recs |

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I'm curious to what extent the Rangers realize this fact.

I bet they do, because they knew enough to move Michael Young even after winning a GG. So if any of their starters continue to post good ERAs despite poor peripherals, they really should go ahead and trade them for anything valuable or just to dump contracts. They need to open 1-2 spots in the rotation soon anyways in order to give Perez and maybe Holland spots in the rotation, which is their real chance at taking the division.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on May 15, 2009 9:34 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

It's Feliz

unless they they callup 18 year old Martin Perez.

Go Rangers...don't suck...

by Kinslerhomer on May 15, 2009 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm curious to see how Andrus' offensive line looks at the end of the season

since CHONE, ZiPS, and Oliver all had him with less than a .290 wOBA going into the season, and updated ZiPS has him at .285.

He’s going to have to be pretty awesome with the glove to make up for that, if that’s about where he ends up.

I’m not saying Michael Young should have been left at short, but let’s not go nuts.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by devil_fingers on May 15, 2009 2:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Let's say he's about a 5th of the way through his season.

Zips has him falling 17.9 more weighted runs above replacement this year. Let’s say that’s right and the fielding maintains its pace. That would put him at about a 3.5 WAR season.

I’d be ecstatic with that. He could regress a bunch and I’d still be happy. I was going to be fine as long as he maintained replacement-level this year. His offense has been tremendously better than I anticipated.

And his BABIP is way down from his AA season. That makes some sense, but 50 points? How well does ZiPS handle rookies?

And That Happened: Sports with a Hint of Sarcasm

by philkid3 on May 15, 2009 4:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Eerie!

Every single scout and prospect person seems to compare Andrus to Edgar Renteria. It’s constant. Not only that, but PECOTA gives him the highest similarity score I think I’ve ever seen to Renteria.

Renteria’s rookie season: 3.3 WAR. LOL

And That Happened: Sports with a Hint of Sarcasm

by philkid3 on May 15, 2009 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Huh

Andrus has been good, and anything around average will be a win for him.

I’m a bit confused about where you get 3.5 WAR, though.

the ZiPS number you are talking about is wRAA — that is, wOBA Runs Above Average, or simply linear weights above average. The “update total” then is -19.0. That’s not park adjusted (as it will be on the “batting” line in the “value” section), so that will be even worse considering his home park, but let’s leave it there.

Let’s simply go with his UZR/150, which is a “rate” stat, of 8.9. Let’s call it 9. That’s the “pace.”

So we have -19.0 offense +9 defense + 7.5 position + 20 replacement (that’s a hack, but whatever) =

17.5 RAR, or 1.75 WAR, and keep in mind that would be lower given this home park adjustment.

I’m I missing something?

That’s good for what the options were, and has real value, and he’s very young. But that’s still clearly a below-average player.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by devil_fingers on May 15, 2009 4:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hm. . .

My math messed up some where, not sure where.

In any case, being close to an average player would still have me ecstatic. That’s kind of really awesome and far beyond expectations.

That said, once again, how good is ZiPS on rookies, and how common is a 70 point BABIP drop from one level to the next?

And That Happened: Sports with a Hint of Sarcasm

by philkid3 on May 15, 2009 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Also, is 1.8 WAR clearly below average?

I’ve read a difference of half a win as not being statistically significant enough to be definitive. (Which, obviously means it goes the other way, and he wouldn’t be clearly close to average, either.)

And That Happened: Sports with a Hint of Sarcasm

by philkid3 on May 15, 2009 5:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

well, 1.8 is pretty clearly below average

yes, WAR isn’t an "exact’ measure like OBP or something, and a lot of that is due to defense. But it’s not like the “error bars” only go one way. Yeah, the above projectoins above assumed, Andrus might “really” be as valuable as 2.3 WAR player, but ifyou say that, then you also have to say it’s just a likely he’s as valuable as a 1.3 WAR player, limiting ourself to the evidence in this discussion.

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by devil_fingers on May 16, 2009 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree for the most part.

Especially with Padilla. I would happily trade him ASAP because I don’t think replacing him would be hard at all, and the ERA-type numbers aren’t necessarily going to stay as good.

Millwood has put up a 93 tRA+, has a tRA* better than his tRA (which is also down from last year), and has a work load that has putting him just barely below average in total production. I would like to keep him, but I wouldn’t at all be opposed to dealing him for some sort of blow out package. McCarthy is the same sort of situation. He hasn’t been as good, but he’s also young and supposed to be part of our future. The end result is the same: I’d trade him for something awesome.

Padilla trade, though. . . yes, please.

And That Happened: Sports with a Hint of Sarcasm

by philkid3 on May 15, 2009 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs