Members of the 500 Home Run Club Not In The Hall Of Fame

by Jeff Zimmerman on May 15, 2009 1:50 PM EDT

With Gary Sheffield just joining the 500 home run club as its 25th member and Jim Thome about to tie Mike Schmidt for 13th on the all-time list, I thought I would take a look at the group of ten players who have hit 500 home runs and aren't in the Hall of Fame.

To define the average Hall of Fame position player, I used JBrew's research based on Sean Smith's historical WAR. According to the data, the median WAR of the Hall of Famers since 1955 is 70.6.

First, here are the ten current members of the 500 HR club ranked according to their career WAR through 2008:

Name	Total WAR	Top 3 Seaons	Best 3 Year Period	Home Runs	HR Rank All Time
Bonds, Barry	173.9	37.3	35.4	762	1
Rodriguez, Alex	96.5	30.7	24.6	554	12
Griffey, Ken	83.1	28.5	26.3	614	5
Thomas, Frank	78.7	23.0	22.5	521	18
Palmeiro, Rafael	70.5	20.5	17.6	569	10
Thome, Jim	67.4	21.4	20.1	547	14
Ramirez, Manny	65.3	19.6	17.7	533	17
Sheffield, Gary	64.5	20.6	16.9	500	25
McGwire, Mark	63.7	20.8	15.0	583	8
Sosa, Sammy	58.5	23.4	22.0	609	6

What really sticks out here is that McGwire and Sosa are in the top ten in home runs, but are the last two in total WAR. The other glaring issue is that seven out of ten of these players (all except Griffey, Thomas and Thome) have been linked to PEDs in one form or another. I really want to see how the HOF votes for some of these players. McGwire was the first to test the voting waters and while results haven't been good, he has the second lowest lifetime WAR of the club. It's tough to tell how much of the lack of McGwire love is linked to his usage of PEDs and how much is because he wasn't that good of a player. The real test will be when Bonds is eligible and how the voters react to his candidacy.

Beside just total WAR, I believe a player should be measured on what they did during the prime of their careers. The following chart has the ten players' total WAR along with their best three seasons and their best consecutive three seasons:

The only numbers that really stick out to me on that graph are from Sosa where he had a few really good years and not much beyond that. Sammy's top three seasons (23.4 WAR) accounted for 40% of his total WAR, while Frank Thomas' top three seasons (23.0 WAR) accounted for only 29% of his total WAR.

I originally graphed all ten players and the average HOF numbers together in one graph, but it was way too confusing. So instead I grouped the players by career WAR, with the best three in the first graph, followed by the middle three, and then the bottom four. The average HoFamer line is included for context.

Out of these players, the only one I bet would bet making the HOF on the first try is Griffey, while it seems like Thomas and Thome should eventually make it in. The other seven all have the PED headlines hanging over them, so whether they make it or not likely has more to do with how the HOF voters deal with PEDs than their actual productivity levels.

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Comments

It's strange to think about Frank Thomas as being underrated

but given you little press he gets, it’s hard to avoid thinking that’s the case

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by Matt Klaassen on May 15, 2009 2:01 PM EDT reply actions

Yup

He was pretty awesome.
One thing I think is interesting is how the bottom four collectively seem to have a sharper drop from their peak than the others… although I don’t know how much of that is just an optical illusion from Sosa’s curve making me think it’s more prominent for the others too.

by mattybobo on May 15, 2009 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions

Bonds, A-Rod, Griffey, and Thomas are all first-balloters to me.

by lailaihei on May 15, 2009 2:59 PM EDT reply actions

"average"

You have a slight problem when you calculate average, which is apparent at the tail. It should be smooth, but it’s not. This is either because a) the denominator in your average calculation changes based on the number of players left for that season number or b) a guy with a negative WAR in his last season, say his 18th, will then count as either 0 or null in the 19th and future seasons.

What you should do is 1. keep the denominator constant, so that you simply do a sum of all the WAR divided by the number of players in your pool, and 2. for those guys with a negative WAR, throw those seasons out.

by tangotiger on May 15, 2009 3:56 PM EDT reply actions

Tom -- Thanks as always for the information

The line came about from another discussion on how players numbers compare to current HOF.

Maybe we should come up with a Replacement Level Hall of Famer?

by Jeff Zimmerman on May 15, 2009 4:50 PM EDT up reply actions

the "average"

comes from a sample where only one player makes up the tail. The last couple years should be dropped, or the sample expanded.

by Harry Pavlidis on May 16, 2009 9:02 PM EDT up reply actions

An example.

Let’s say Bonds played briefly in 2008, compiling .05 WAR in 5 PAs. That .05 WAR (basically 0) is averaged in right now. But if Bonds didn’t play (and, well, he didn’t) then he still put up 0 WAR, but we’re not counting him. Whether or not he had 5 PAs, that 2008 season did bubbly squat to change our minds about Bonds’ career. The zero WAR should be included either way.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on May 16, 2009 10:23 PM EDT up reply actions

Discussion at Baseball Think Factory

There is a pretty lively discussion going on over at BBTF on this article

Link

by Jeff Zimmerman on May 15, 2009 4:47 PM EDT reply actions

Barry Bonds

Should get in on the first try, until he’s convicted they should let him in. If he is convicted, as a Giants fan, I would be ok with him being “expelled” from the HOF.

by BucksForever on May 15, 2009 5:13 PM EDT reply actions

We're not getting into a PED witch hunt here, just so everybody knows.

Feel free to address how a player’s PED cloud is affecting his HoF chances, but keep it objective.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on May 15, 2009 5:16 PM EDT reply actions

Realistically

I think after 10 years or so people will start to realize that it’s impossible to truely seperate who did and who did not. so they’ll probably slightly penalize those borderline guys and give a slight bonus to those who seems to have no implication.

From a # point of view though. pretty much all of those guys are deserving.

Bond’s so much better than the average HOF it’s hilarious.

by RollingWave on May 17, 2009 12:01 AM EDT reply actions