Beyond the Box Score: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Login-facebook
Network Message: 50% Off: CBS/SB Nation Fantasy Baseball

Post-Season Comparison - Is it Tougher to Win the Super Bowl or Make it to the Final Four?

On talk radio, on television, and just hanging around the water cooler, I continue to hear comparisons between various sports leagues' post-seasons, especially discussions about how hard it is to win it all.  For example, is it harder to win the Super Bowl or make it to the Final Four in basketball?

To answer those questions, I decided to to look at nine different sports leagues, taking the total number of teams participating and finding out what chance a random team had for making the post-season, advancing in the post-season or winning it all. I know in some of these sports, based on extreme differences in talent level (college basketball, college football and World Cup soccer), the really weak teams have a billion to one chance of actually winning a championship, but I included them because there is that remote chance.

Sport Total Teams Teams in Post-Season Percent Chance of Making Post-Season
MLB 30 8 26.7%
NFL 32 12 37.5%
NHL 30 16 53.3%
NBA 30 16 53.3%
College Football 120 68 56.7%
College Basketball (Men's) 347 97 28.0%
College Baseball 196 64 32.7%
NASCAR 42 12 28.6%
World Cup 205 32 15.6%

 

I then divided success into nine levels of difficultly, with each additional level being about twice as difficult to reach as the previous level (1 - easiest, 9 - hardest):

Level 1 (53.3% to 56.7% of all teams)

NHL - Conference Quarterfinals
NBA - First Round
NCAA Football - any bowl game

Star-divide

Level 2 (26.7% to 37.5% of all teams)

MLB - First Round
NFL - Wild card Round
NCAA Baseball - Regional Round
NASCAR - Chase for the Sprint Cup

Level 3 (25.0% to 28.6% of all teams)

NFL - Divisional conference round
NHL - Conference Semifinals
NBA - 2nd Round
NCAA Basketball (Men's) - any post season tournaments (NIT or NCAA tournament)

Level 4 (13.3% to 20.0% of all teams)

MLB - NLCS or ALCS
NFL - AFC or NFC conference championship
NHL - Conference Finals
NCAA Basketball (Men's) - NCAA Tournament
NCAA Football - Major New Year's Day Bowl
World Cup - Group Stage

Level 5 (6.3% to 9.2% of all teams)

MLB - World Series
NFL - Super Bowl
NHL - Stanley Cup Finals
NBA - Finals
NCAA Football - BCS Bowl game
NCAA Basketball  (Men's) - Round of 32
NCAA Baseball - Super Regional
World Cup - Knockout State - 16 teams

Level 6 (3.9% to 4.6% of all teams)

NCAA Basketball (Men's) - Sweet Sixteen
NCAA Baseball - College World Series
World Cup - Knockout State - 8 teams

Level 7 (2.0% to 3.3% of all teams)

MLB - World Series Champion
NFL - Super Bowl Champion
NHF - Stanley Cup Winner
NBA - Champion
NCAA Basketball (Men's) - Elite 8
Sprint Cup Champion
World Cup - Knockout State - 4 teams

Level 8 (1.0% to 1.7%  of all teams)

NCAA Football - BCS National Championship Game
NCAA Basketball (Men's) - Final 4
NCAA Baseball - Final best of 3 series
World Cup - Knockout State - Championship Game

Level 9 (0.3% to 0.8% of all teams)

NCAA Football - BCS National Champion
NCAA Basketball (Men's) - National Champion
NCAA Baseball - College World Series Champion
World Cup - Champion

Note: I would love to include golf but I'm not sure of the best way since it doesn't really have a post season. Winner and everyone else? Pick a tournament like the Masters and rank from there? Feedback on this would be great.

0 recs  |  Comment 2 comments |

Story-email Email Printer Print

More from Beyond the Box Score

Comments

Display:

Golf has an alleged post season

a la Nascar, it’s a points race at the end.

by Harry Pavlidis on May 14, 2009 11:26 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

We use numbers and stuff.
Community Guidelines
Why be a member?
Start posting on Beyond the Box Score »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

Connect_with_facebook

Cbs_fantasy_baseball_promo

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

Picture-2_small
Advanced Graphing Techniques Part 4 - Cluster Analysis in R
770insig_small
BoaB Billy Butler Division - Draft Rounds 20 to 25
62890-z7fr_big_small
BoaB Zack Greinke Draft Rounds 16-25

Recent FanPosts

Otto_-_image_adjusted_small
Good reasons for getting past the divided leagues era
Small
Nathan's Replacement
Rays_small
Chasing the Grail, Part Two
Rays_small
Chasing Sabermetric’s Holy Grail or, Another Stab at Estimating Catcher Defense
Loper_sports_small
Sabermetrics in Wikipedia Articles
Beanser-logo_small
H2H 30 Team Dynasty League needs owners
N16115505_31581383_8646_small
Tell us what you think of Bullpen Banter
Minter_small
My take on Sabermetrics as a whole

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

FanShots

Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.

Recommended FanShots

I got Dye.

Recent FanShots

Spring Training Pitch FX Data
The All-CHONE Team
Think like a statistician – without the math
New "Sabermetrics Library" Feature: Free Online Course
Why I love searching baseball on Wichita's Craigslist
Chris Coghlan as a Second Baseman
Do Inexperienced Starting Pitchers Falter in the World Series?
SFiercex4 (Michael Jong) is now Triple Dipping - Writing for B-Pro Fantasy
Batting Eye – Updated and Explained

+ New FanShot All FanShots >

BtB on Twitter

Main Feed: @BtBScore

Jeff: @jeffwzimmerman
Steve: @steve_sommer
Sky: @BtB_Sky
Dan: @dturkenk
Harry: @harrypav
Jinaz: @jinazreds
Jack: @jh_moore
Erik: @Erik_Manning
Tommy R: @trancel
Justin: @justinbopp

Subscribe to BtB via Email

Enter your email address:

Delivered by FeedBurner

Most Commented

BtB Goes Social


Managers

Wbc_029_small Jeff Sullivan

Editors

Rawlings_baseball_bigger_small Dan Turkenkopf

Limes_125_small Sky Kalkman

770insig_small Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal)

Aviles_small Justin Bopp

Paige_small Satchel Price

Authors

Jinaz-reds-avatar_small JinAZ

Face_small Harry Pavlidis

Newavatar_small Matt Klaassen

1753738656_110919ebe9_o_small vivaelpujols

Ozzie_small erik

Big_pun--300x300_small Tommy Rancel

Adam_small adarowski

Redcap_small SFiercex4

St_louis_cardinals_ce1141_003263_small stevesommer05

Julio_teheran_2_small PWHjort

Cclogo_small Daniel Moroz