Beyond the Box Score: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Sports blogs for fans, by fans.
Around SBN: USA Today / SB Nation Consensus MMA Rankings for October

Post-Season Comparison - Is it Tougher to Win the Super Bowl or Make it to the Final Four?

Photo

More photos » by Gene J. Puskar - AP

On talk radio, on television, and just hanging around the water cooler, I continue to hear comparisons between various sports leagues' post-seasons, especially discussions about how hard it is to win it all.  For example, is it harder to win the Super Bowl or make it to the Final Four in basketball?

To answer those questions, I decided to to look at nine different sports leagues, taking the total number of teams participating and finding out what chance a random team had for making the post-season, advancing in the post-season or winning it all. I know in some of these sports, based on extreme differences in talent level (college basketball, college football and World Cup soccer), the really weak teams have a billion to one chance of actually winning a championship, but I included them because there is that remote chance.

Sport Total Teams Teams in Post-Season Percent Chance of Making Post-Season
MLB 30 8 26.7%
NFL 32 12 37.5%
NHL 30 16 53.3%
NBA 30 16 53.3%
College Football 120 68 56.7%
College Basketball (Men's) 347 97 28.0%
College Baseball 196 64 32.7%
NASCAR 42 12 28.6%
World Cup 205 32 15.6%

 

I then divided success into nine levels of difficultly, with each additional level being about twice as difficult to reach as the previous level (1 - easiest, 9 - hardest):

Level 1 (53.3% to 56.7% of all teams)

NHL - Conference Quarterfinals
NBA - First Round
NCAA Football - any bowl game

Star-divide

Level 2 (26.7% to 37.5% of all teams)

MLB - First Round
NFL - Wild card Round
NCAA Baseball - Regional Round
NASCAR - Chase for the Sprint Cup

Level 3 (25.0% to 28.6% of all teams)

NFL - Divisional conference round
NHL - Conference Semifinals
NBA - 2nd Round
NCAA Basketball (Men's) - any post season tournaments (NIT or NCAA tournament)

Level 4 (13.3% to 20.0% of all teams)

MLB - NLCS or ALCS
NFL - AFC or NFC conference championship
NHL - Conference Finals
NCAA Basketball (Men's) - NCAA Tournament
NCAA Football - Major New Year's Day Bowl
World Cup - Group Stage

Level 5 (6.3% to 9.2% of all teams)

MLB - World Series
NFL - Super Bowl
NHL - Stanley Cup Finals
NBA - Finals
NCAA Football - BCS Bowl game
NCAA Basketball  (Men's) - Round of 32
NCAA Baseball - Super Regional
World Cup - Knockout State - 16 teams

Level 6 (3.9% to 4.6% of all teams)

NCAA Basketball (Men's) - Sweet Sixteen
NCAA Baseball - College World Series
World Cup - Knockout State - 8 teams

Level 7 (2.0% to 3.3% of all teams)

MLB - World Series Champion
NFL - Super Bowl Champion
NHF - Stanley Cup Winner
NBA - Champion
NCAA Basketball (Men's) - Elite 8
Sprint Cup Champion
World Cup - Knockout State - 4 teams

Level 8 (1.0% to 1.7%  of all teams)

NCAA Football - BCS National Championship Game
NCAA Basketball (Men's) - Final 4
NCAA Baseball - Final best of 3 series
World Cup - Knockout State - Championship Game

Level 9 (0.3% to 0.8% of all teams)

NCAA Football - BCS National Champion
NCAA Basketball (Men's) - National Champion
NCAA Baseball - College World Series Champion
World Cup - Champion

Note: I would love to include golf but I'm not sure of the best way since it doesn't really have a post season. Winner and everyone else? Pick a tournament like the Masters and rank from there? Feedback on this would be great.

0 recs  |  Comment 2 comments |

Story-email Email Printer Print

More from Beyond the Box Score

Comments

Display:

Golf has an alleged post season

a la Nascar, it’s a points race at the end.

by Harry Pavlidis on May 14, 2009 11:26 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

We use numbers and stuff.
Community Guidelines
Why be a member?
Start posting on Beyond the Box Score »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recent FanPosts

Small
The "30 parks on a budget" challenge
Sunflower_small
World Series Simulation, Game #6
Small
JT20 Dynasty League
E52205a2_small
New Look
Sth70021_small
Exploring Hit f/x, Albeit Badly
Redcap_small
Ricky Nolasco: 4 WAR or 1 WAR?
Redcap_small
Apparently I can't do park adjustments
Small
Which tells us more: The last 7 at bats or 7 at bats against this pitcher?
Sleepy_jeff_small
How Efficient and Effective Were the Rockies in 2009?
Limes_125_small
Twitter WAR: Fred McGriff, Tim Raines, and other Hall of Fame issues

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

FanShots

Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.

Recent FanShots

The Mistake Lottery
On the Field, the Yankees Are The Team of the Decade. Off It? The Red Sox.
Tigers' all-time WAR leaders
Primer on Runs Created
How to improve basketball
LB Keith Bulluck uses a sabermetric analogy to explain the Titans' quarterback situation.
Alcides Escobar "abandoned his daughter before she was born"
UZR, Scouting, and the Fans
Not-So-Lousy Lineup Optimizer, Playoff Edition: New York Yankees

+ New FanShot All FanShots >

BtB on Twitter

Main Feed: @BtBScore

Tommy B: @tommy_bennett
Sky: @BtB_Sky
Dan: @dturkenk
Harry: @harrypav
Jinaz: @jinazreds
Jack: @jh_moore
Erik: @Erik_Manning
Tommy R: @trancel
Justin: @justinbopp

Subscribe to BtB via Email

Enter your email address:

Delivered by FeedBurner

Most Commented

Limes_125_small
Time To Move On
770insig_small
Negative Team WAR - 2009 Edition
Nando_small
A Complete and Lenghty List of Baseball-Related Things Miguel Olivo is Good At
Redcap_small
Hardy for Gomez: A Defensive Win-Win
E52205a2_small
New Look

Managers

Nando_small R.J. Anderson

Limes_125_small Sky Kalkman

E52205a2_small Tommy Bennett

Editors

Face_small Harry Pavlidis

Rawlings_baseball_bigger_small Dan Turkenkopf

770insig_small Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal)

Aviles_small Justin Bopp

Authors

Banny_small erik

Raysring1_small Tommy Rancel

Jinaz-reds-avatar_small JinAZ

Jmlogo_small Jack Moore

1753738656_110919ebe9_o_small vivaelpujols

1_small Graham

Baseball_small Mike Rogers

Redcap_small SFiercex4

Small Patrick Clark

Walter_album_small Walter Fulbright