Fastball and Changeup Run Value by Movement

Dave Allen at Baseball Analysts helps give pitch f/x movement data some context, by showing how fastballs and change-ups tend to move. There are some generalities, examples using specific pitchers, and then he tackles the question of how much movement is ideal? The caveat being, of course, that location and speed are significant factors, too. I have additional commentary on some pictures in the comments.

almost 3 years ago Sky Kalkman 4 comments 0 recs |

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

These charts show the movement of four seem fastballs against RH hitters. Higher means the pitch has more backspin and therefore moves down less (it “rises”). Dots to the right mean the pitch moves inside to righties.

Looking at the left hand graph, it’s pretty straight forward: The more a fastball rises, the better.

Looking at the left hand graph, I see something pretty interesting. That blue oval is where hitters crush the ball against lefties. Those are pitches without a lot of rise and typical tailing movement. Nothing difficult to deal with. The red oval actually doesn’t represent any more rise, but it’s located around zero horizontal movement. These are likely cutters. To me, it’s surprising how effective a “straight” pitch can be, especially against hitters of the opposite hand. It’s kind of like a slider, but faster, and moves across the hitter’s field of vision.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on May 11, 2009 10:49 AM EDT reply actions

So if I'm understanding this, the best fastball is either straight, or moves inward.

Seems to make anecdotal sense. Are sinkers more of just valuable as situational pitches?

And That Happened: Sports with a Hint of Sarcasm

by philkid3 on May 11, 2009 4:14 PM EDT reply actions

Sky,

I tried to reclassify all the pitches so that cutters would be seperated from four-seam fastballs, but I am sure that I did not get it 100%. So you are probably right that the pitches in the red oval in the LHB/RHP image are probably cutters.

Philkid,

Sinkers are in a separate figure in the post (I included it below), as Sky wrote the image posted is just for four-seam fastballs. Sinkers are very valuable and, unsurprisingly, move valuable the more ‘sink’ they have.