Choose your own projection
I did a little Fanpost at Royals Review... I originally was just going to do a generic WAR projection for the position pl ayers, averaging CHONE, PECTOA, and ZiPS, but then I came up with the idea do break it down into components by projection system so that people could "choose their own projection." Kind of a funny take referencing the old "choose your own adventure" books from my childhood or whatever. I thought it was a fun idea, anyway, to get people to understand how intuitive the notion of WAR really is, as well as letting them pick each projection they think is better, or to leave out parts they don't like (say, if they hate defensive stats). Would have been better with multiple choices for defensive projections or baserunning, of course, but given that I had to do the baserunning myself, I feel okay about it.
I'm not an "official" Royals blogger or anything, but I thought this was sort of an entertaining twist on the usual projections post that other people might get a kick out of and maybe run with.
almost 3 years ago
Matt Klaassen
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At VEB chuckb gave us each player's 50% PECOTA projection
and we would decide if it was too high or too low, or just right. Than he averaged out the results to see what percentage we should go by.
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
yeah, that's a good idea, too
this isn’t as much of a community projection thing, but it’s a similar idea
Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary to Driveline Mechanics and elsewhere since sometime in 2008.
by Matt Klaassen on Apr 8, 2009 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions
yeah
you can’t really trust people to be objective about their team
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
I bet there's value there if you can account for home-team bias.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.


















