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I did a little Fanpost at Royals Review... I originally was just going to do a generic WAR projection for the position pl ayers, averaging CHONE, PECTOA, and ZiPS, but then I came up with the idea do break it down into components by projection system so that people could "choose their own projection." Kind of a funny take referencing the old "choose your own adventure" books from my childhood or whatever. I thought it was a fun idea, anyway, to get people to understand how intuitive the notion of WAR really is, as well as letting them pick each projection they think is better, or to leave out parts they don't like (say, if they hate defensive stats). Would have been better with multiple choices for defensive projections or baserunning, of course, but given that I had to do the baserunning myself, I feel okay about it.

I'm not an "official" Royals blogger or anything, but I thought this was sort of an entertaining twist on the usual projections post that other people might get a kick out of and maybe run with.

7 months ago Newavatar_tiny devil_fingers 5 comments 0 recs  | 

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At VEB chuckb gave us each player's 50% PECOTA projection

and we would decide if it was too high or too low, or just right. Than he averaged out the results to see what percentage we should go by.

St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008

by vivaelpujols on Apr 8, 2009 1:51 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

yeah, that's a good idea, too

this isn’t as much of a community projection thing, but it’s a similar idea

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary to Driveline Mechanics and elsewhere since sometime in 2008.

by devil_fingers on Apr 8, 2009 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

the results had the Cardinals winning

100 games, I believe. Didn’t work out the way I had hoped.

by erik on Apr 8, 2009 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

yeah

you can’t really trust people to be objective about their team

St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008

by vivaelpujols on Apr 8, 2009 3:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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