Catching Prospects: Pop-guns and Bazookas
Last week* I covered the top position player prospects and their defense, but I wasn't really sure what to do with catchers. Quantifying catcher defense is still rather nebulous, as there's a lot of factors that are tricky to weigh. There are a couple of things that we know catchers are (mostly) responsible for, which would be controlling the running game and blocking balls.
Charted below are the top catching prospects in the game. The categories are pretty self-explanatory, but let's touch on them quickly. There is the amount of innings they caught, the stolen base percentage they allowed, stolen base attempts per inning, stolen bases per inning and passed balls per inning.
Attempts per inning is a good way to gauge a catcher's reputation. If word is out to minor league managers that the guy behind the plate has a cannon of an arm, they'll run less. On the flip side, if the scouting report says the catcher has a noodle of a throwing arm, they will let their guys run at will. In order to equalize reputation with results, there is stolen bases per inning.
I wanted to include wild pitches + passed balls per nine innings but instead settled for passed balls per inning. The difference between passed balls and wild pitches can be arbitrary; one official scorer's wild pitch is another scorer's passed ball. I opted to punt wild pitches because I found the lower I went into the minors, the more wild pitches there seemed to be. Another road block was that while I could find league averages for passed balls, I was unsuccessful finding wild pitches.
| Org | Level | Innings | SB% | ATT/I | SB/I | PB/I | |
| Matt Wieters | BAL | A+/AA | 742.6 | 59% | 12% | 4.6% | .004 |
| Carlos Santana | CLE | A+/AA | 850.3 | 75% | 13.6% | 10.2% | .016 |
| Jesus Montero | NYY | A | 591.7 | 75.5% | 16.6% | 12.5% | .019 |
| J.P. Arencibia | TOR | A+/AA | 874.3 | 68.3% | 9.4% | 6.4% | .017 |
| Lou Marson | PHI | AA | 735.7 | 66.7% | 10.2% | 6.8% | .006 |
| Wilson Ramos | MIN | A+ | 619 | 58.7% | 10.2% | 5.9% | .008 |
| Taylor Teagarden | TEX | AA/AAA | 575.3 | 65% | 10.4% | 6.7% | .005 |
| Max Ramirez | TEX | AA/AAA | 409.7 | 77.6% | 15.4% | 12.7% | .012 |
| Tyler Flowers | CWS | A+ | 721.7 | 74.8% | 18.7% | 14% | .015 |
| Angel Salome | MIL | AA | 667 | 76.9% | 16.2% | 12.4% | .019 |
| Bryan Anderson | STL | AA/AAA | 724.3 | 67% | 13.4% | 9% | .014 |
| Austin Romine | NYY | A | 444 | 82.4% | 20.5% | 16.9% | .041 |
| Jon Lucroy | MIL | A/A+ | 818 | 57.7% | 13.6% | 7.8% | .012 |
| Adam Moore | SEA | AA | 898.3 | 67.2% | 12.2% | 8.2% | .026 |
| Cole Armstrong | CWS | AA/AAA | 780.4 | 72.5% | 8.9% | 6.4% | .012 |
| Welington Castillo | CHC | A+/AA | 674.3 | 75% | 9.5% | 7.1% | .030 |
| Michael McKenry | COL | A+ | 801.7 | 52.6% | 9.7% | 5.1% | .012 |
| Devin Mesoraco | CIN | A | 614.3 | 82.3% | 15.6% | 12.9% | .023 |
| John Jaso | TB | AA/AAA | 803.6 | 81.3% | 16.3% | 12.9% | .009 |
| James Skelton | AZ | A+/AA | 646.6 | 61.4% | 8.8% | 5.4% | .017 |
| Pablo Sandoval | SFG | A+/AA | 681.3 | 63.8% | 8.4% | 5.4% | .007 |
For some context, here are the averages at each level of the minors. Catchers as a group improve at each level. Base-stealers also get a little more selective on how often they run as they move up.
| LEV | SB | CS | SB% | ATT/I | SB/I | PB/I |
| AAA | 3090 | 1327 | 70.00% | 11.50% | 8.00% | .012 |
| AA | 3053 | 1461 | 67.60% | 11.90% | 8.00% | .013 |
| A+ | 3753 | 1728 | 68.50% | 14.60% | 10.00% | .018 |
| A | 3993 | 1761 | 69.40% | 15.40% | 10.70% | .017 |
Whether or not these players can handle their position is a very big deal, as there are few catchers athletic enough to handle another position other than first base. The exceptions are few and far in-between...Craig Biggio, Brandon Inge come to mind, but most failed catching prospects shift to the far left side the defensive spectrum. If their bat isn't good enough to be an every day first baseman or DH, the player goes from prospect to suspect in a hurry.
Some random thoughts:
- Matt Wieters is either a cyborg from the future or is one of the descendants of the Nephilim of old. Not only can he rake, he also stops the running game cold and also is adept at blocking balls in the dirt. He can even make an omelet without cracking any eggs.
- Taylor Teagarden and Wilson Ramos are as good as advertised.
- James Skelton and Pablo Sandoval are much better than advertised, probably because they are such oddballs.
- Michael McKenry earns the first ever BtB "Golden Bazooka" award. Austin Romine gets the first annual "Pop-Gun" award. He reportedly has a strong arm but apparently has no clue how to utilize it. Not only did he struggle with stopping runners, he was by far the worst on this list at allowing passed balls.
- It's a good thing Carlos Santana and Jesus Montero can hit.
- Welington Castillo slides into the suspect category if he can't improve his plate-blocking skills.
- Everyone seemed to be gushing about what a great all-around catching prospect Devin Mesoraco was on draft day, but oy...what a terrible debut.
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12 comments
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Comments
What does this say about Anderson's defense?
by thoran85 on Apr 8, 2009 11:21 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I guess he's a little worse than average according to these measures?
Doesn’t look too bad, but that’s just my uneducated read of the numbers.
by mattybobo on Apr 8, 2009 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
pretty decent when it comes to throwing out runners
still not so great when it comes to passed balls.
by erik on Apr 8, 2009 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
good thing are staff doesn't throw a lot of pitches in the dirt
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
by vivaelpujols on Apr 8, 2009 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
he's near average on PB.
and 57 internet points for the nephilim reference.
the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, then you see things clear and stark -- macmanus
by tom s. on Apr 8, 2009 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
mlb average is
.007, so he’s close to your average AAA catcher but still has room for improvement.
by erik on Apr 8, 2009 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
How was Manny Pina's defense?
"It doesn't look like he's trying. It kinda pisses me off," "He could throw 110 if he tried. The way it explodes out of his hand is really something special." ~ B-Mac on Feliz.
by Kinslerhomer on Apr 8, 2009 11:59 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Pina is great at blocking balls, not great at stopping the running game.
717 innings 70% CS, 16% attempts per inning, 11.5% steals per inning .011 passed balls per inning
by erik on Apr 8, 2009 12:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thx.
"It doesn't look like he's trying. It kinda pisses me off," "He could throw 110 if he tried. The way it explodes out of his hand is really something special." ~ B-Mac on Feliz.
by Kinslerhomer on Apr 8, 2009 12:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i goofed actually
70% stolen base rate, and that’s actually about average.
by erik on Apr 8, 2009 1:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Matt Wieters doesn't take pitches...He shows them mercy
-Zach Sanders
MLB Notebook.com
Roto Rat.com
by mlbnotebook on Apr 8, 2009 3:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

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