cmon drink the kool aid
by nokoolaid on Apr 5, 2009 12:28 AM EDT
38 comments
The blue jays are actually a savvy pick for al east if the young arms respond (CAN U SAY TAMPA?)). The plus is they have better offense than last year with a healthy Hill, Travis Snider, and hopefully a full season from Wells and better years from Rolen and Rios. The blue jays were 51-37 under cito gaston (93-69 over a whole season) with basically less offense than last year and the same pitching as this year except for burnett and the young arms have a chance to do as well as his 4.01 era by mid season. Cito is underrated manger with a ton to prove as only black skipper with two world series rings and never rehired again. As good as Joe Torre or better but because he was black rationalization was that he had great teams (Torre didnt” ? wat happened the last 6 years you were there Joe? Yankees spent a lot more than bjs in those years) There is major competition for the last 2-3 pitching spots if some young guns falter on bjs and they will still have best bullpen in baseball. Yankees should be 5 games better…maybe ….but the division is really a toss up. Texeria and CC should more than offset ARODS problems but Burnett love overdue for elbow problems Boston and Tampa have not really improved. Penny may help Sox but there are many holes and they are aging. Tampa will still compete very well but they havent improved much on the field (can you say Detroits young pitching guns that looked invincible for a decade 3 years ago)a nd keeping last years intensity may be hard with young team. You get can 50-1 odds vs bjs making playoffs. Bet a few hundred bucks if u have to take a flyer on and put a down payment on a house as the eastern elite will give u the sucker bet as they love to drink the Kool aid. Better than giving your money to Bernie Madoff!!! Any of u guys above do that? be honest
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Welcome to Beyond the Boxscore!!
A couple of things though:
1) You should break up that paragraph, it was a bitch to read
2) If you really believe that the Jays have a chance next year, try using some numbers to back it up. I personally think that the Jays are a good team and would like to see a statistical argument for them winning the division.
2a) In addition to Burnett, the Jays will be without Marcum and McGowan for a lot of the season. Those two combined were worth as much as Burnett was last year, so those losses are huge.
vivaelbeñsheets
ok
Gaston hardly had McGowan at all when compiling that record and Marcum pitchied poorly during much of that time due to his injury so as I said the only difference in pitching is not having burnett but they do have jansen and accardo back
and
jays were 51-37 during that stretch which projects to 93-69 on a full year. Nothing has really changed for Gaston (except for a little tougher division….maybe) except for losing burnett If young arms can step up, (a big if), that record is acheivable again. Jays offense should actually be better.
their biggest problems:
1) VERY tough division
2) pitching has taken a step back by losing burnett + marcum/mcgowan + many dont believe in litsch — along with the reports of ryan throwing in the mid 80s and the whole accardo mess
3) if halladay gets hurt (knock on wood) they are done.
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
by knockoutking on Apr 5, 2009 12:42 PM EDT up reply actions
maybe
both Marcum and McGowan MAY be back to contribute this year. Ryan threw harder in last outing. I agree a lot of ifs in pitching but if Ricky Romero or Litsch fail (I think Purcey is a keeper). Mills, Jansen, Cecil and even Matt Clement are hungry for job and could step up. The bullpen actually deeper so Wolfe, Tallet or Downs could spot start . They have done well doing this is past.. I am not saying they will make playoffs but 50 to 1 is a pretty good bet if u have a little money to take a flyer on. I see them as 10 or 12 to 1
from someone who doesnt think the rangers are going to make the playoffs
you are MUCHMUCHMUCH more likely to get a return on your money if you put it on the rangers. at least they have a .01% chance to win their division. the only way the “bjs” wins is if the players of the yankees, redsox and rays all break their legs at the same time.
10 or 12 to 1 to make the PLAYOFFS? the rangers are 100-1 and have a MUCHM better chance to make it to the playoffs than the bluejays.
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
by knockoutking on Apr 5, 2009 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions
like i said
Rangers are another good long shot bet. Angels have had a lot of injuries and A’s have a lot of ifs like BJS. Even though I have lived in WI for awhile I watched the bjs for years in Toronto. I have seen them play those east teams soooo tough even when they were given no chance.Last years record speaks for itself under Gaston. Boston is not that different than team that finsihed 3rd behind bjs in 2007 yes Pedroia has emerged but I think Beckett has not looked good for a year and Ortiz, Lowell and Wakefield and Lowie are questions. Tampa will be tough but look at what happened to Detroits pitching of the future a few years ago. I am not sold on Sonnanstine either. Yankees will be better no doubt but they are aging. Posada and Jeter were great but are aging and truth is as great as Jeter is he has lousy range and Damon has no arm. I am not sure Pettite has anything left and Yanks will be lucky if Burnett replaces Mussina.
again
what have the blue jays done to get better?
snider is a rookie
lind may be squeezed for PT
rolen is a year older
their pitching is much worse this year than last year
etc
etc
etc
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
but
Ryan Howard and Prince Fielder did pretty well as rookies Rolen is 4 years younger than Jeter and Posada I believe
the point
was that no one knows what your going to get out o f him
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
by knockoutking on Apr 10, 2009 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions
And nokoolaid's point
is that the ODDS the jays make the playoffs are better than you think. He’s not saying they’re going, he’s not saying he’d take even odds to those of the Rays, Red Sox or Skanks, he’s just saying that when you compare the odds Vegas is giving to what they actually are, the Jays could surprise some people.
I’m sure if you gave him even odds on the Jays not making the playoffs he’d take your bet.
"The NY Mets are my favorite squadron" -- Apu Nahasapeemapetilon
". I am not sold on Sonnanstine either"
Why, because he throws sub-90s?
You’re focusing far too much on data points that only support your argument. Like 2007, and Gaston’s record with the Jays. Honestly, does 2007’s finish mean all that much for 2009 as far as team performances? I don’t think it does.
Also, Beckett was really good last year.
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 5, 2009 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions
i understand but
51-37 for gaston was last year with no mcgowan and an injured marcum who was not throwing well. This record was with Richmond Purcey and 31 year old minor leaguer they cut (cant remember name) There are your data points The only difference was burnett was there.and in fact beckett was shaky for most of last two months last year i saw him get shelled twice
anyway
I only said i think its worth taking a flyer on I think bjs are undervalued . I am going to wait a few weeks into season see how pitching evolves and probably risk a few hundred to go for 10k. I have learned to never count bjs out and I think that fans in general get too caught up in the impact of a few acquisitons without looking at who has left ,who is in decline and how quickly things could potentially go bad for a team becuase of lack of depth. You see it all the time i.e no AROD for 1/2 season has probably already lost Yanks 4 games
I think that fans in general get too caught up in the impact of a few acquisitons without looking at who has left ,who is in decline and how quickly things could potentially go bad for a team becuase of lack of depth.
lets see
blue jays – weaker in pitching, weaker in hitting, back of the bullpen is questionable, lost their #2 pitcher, lost 2 more rotation guys, wells is in decline, snider is a rookie
if halliday gets hurt they may have the orioles on their heels.
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
by knockoutking on Apr 6, 2009 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions
It seems you're double, er, triple-counting the weaker pitching thing.
And weaker hitting? With Snider, Lind, and a likely rebound from Hill? And is it really appropriate to expect Wells to continue to decline? How about regressing towards previous levels of better performance?
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
should have worded it
there are more questions w/ their hitting
snider/lind = who knows exactly what to expect
hill/wells = had down years last year
roland = was hurt last year
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
by knockoutking on Apr 10, 2009 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions
uh
a. do you know exactly what to expect from Wieters? do you know exactly what to expect from David Price?
Stewart, 200 PA, .240 / .325 / .303
Wilkerson, 241 PA, .216 / .297 / .332
Mench, 131 PA, .243 / .321 / .357
Thomas, 72 PA, .167 / .306 / .333
I think it’s a relatively safe bet that Snider/Lind will be better than that.
Hill didn’t have a “down year,” he started slowly and got hurt. There’s a large difference and he seems to be playing pretty well offensively and defensively thus far. Wells was hurt but when healthy hit .300 / .343 / .496.c. unless you’re referring to The Headless Thompson Gunner, his name is Rolen and he still had 467 plate appearances and OPSed 780 (107 OPS+) and placed third amongst 3rd Basemen in the Fielding Bible panel.
"The NY Mets are my favorite squadron" -- Apu Nahasapeemapetilon
Beckett was a 5 win pitcher last year.
You’re basing your opinion on him off of two months and two starts in particular. You have to realize that’s just not an accurate portrayal of true talent.
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 5, 2009 6:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Okay, this logic is flawed.
Stuff did change. Every team in the division got better, even the Orioles. You have three true talent ~90+ win teams in the division, Toronto isn’t one of them at this point.
Also, Burnett is basically a 4 win pitcher, the replacements are decent, but I don’t think any of them are going to be that level immediately.
by R.J. Anderson on Apr 5, 2009 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions
If there weren't so many responses to this post, I'd hide it. Watch the language, please.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
wait... the b word is bad?
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Apr 6, 2009 12:18 PM EDT up reply actions
but its the bjs!
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
by knockoutking on Apr 5, 2009 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions
I think you can look it up on Craig's list
by Harry Pavlidis on Apr 5, 2009 10:36 PM EDT up reply actions 4 recs
Harry Wins.
A noob or n00b is someone that lacks intellegance or common sense, most people think that noob is a word used only in the online gaming world, but in reality it is becoming an ever popular word with teenage society.
a noob could be simply a level 100 running round shouting ‘’WTF DO I GO!?’’ or someone calling someone else a noob and then getting hit with a brick, anyone can call anyone a noob, but normally they are noobs themselves
-robert_d_wilfong
by cwhitman412 on Apr 11, 2009 11:24 PM EDT up reply actions
He may be talking about B.J. Upton, in which case I agree completely.
Then again, he could also be talking about a breakfast dish, which I will also agree with.
Is that the light at the end of the tunnel, or the headlights of an oncoming train?
Or.....yeah. Just got it.
Alcohol slowing down brain function.
Is that the light at the end of the tunnel, or the headlights of an oncoming train?
The Blue Jays were awesome last year, better than most people realize.
Probably a top 5 to 7 team based on talent and competition.
Burnett, McGowan, and Marcum put up 10 WAR between them last year, however. That’s a ton of value the young pitching needs to make up.
Hill, Snider, and Lind could be significant upgrades (Wells, too, but his situation is just wierd), though. I’m looking at a .500 team, which may mean they’re one of the top ten to fifteen teams in the majors. I think I put them with the Rangers last week, but they’re better than that.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
correct
however wouldnt the rangers/a’s/angels/mariners have a much higher porbibility of making the playoffs than the blue jays all things considered?
Scout: He was a first-round pick right? Got a huge bonus?
KG: Oh yeah.
Scout: Well, he spent a lot of it on milkshakes.
by knockoutking on Apr 6, 2009 12:31 PM EDT up reply actions
a few other early thoughts re AL EAST
the loser of the WS has not made the playoffs for 3 years in a row. Texeira may have problems now. Its a long season but all teams have bugs coming out of spring training including a few bumps with young pitching for 1st place bjs but frankly i am not sure whether boston is the 2007-8 team with an emerging lester and pedroia or will be weighted down by 2006 team all still there except for Manny) who is really old. Baltimore could maybe finally win 75-78 games too so this division and compettiveness of AL east could make this a lot closer than people think
"the loser of the WS has not made the playoffs for 3 years in a row"
and that means what?
St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008
by vivaelpujols on Apr 13, 2009 9:25 AM EDT up reply actions
well that was enlightening.
Because chicks dig the intentional base on balls.
by Felonius_Monk on Apr 17, 2009 11:51 AM EDT up reply actions
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