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Graph of the Day: Maddux vs. Clemens

My first attempt at one of these things, and I thought I'd make it a graph I've been interested in doing for a while.

Here are arguably the two greatest pitching careers any of us have ever seen, put in to graphed form using Wins Above Replacement to grade their performance:

Madduxvsclemens_medium 

Star-divide

The two of them rank first (Clemens by a wide margin) and fourth (Maddux just 0.1 behind Niekro) among pitchers in total WAR since 1953.

I once did a graph pretty similar to this using ERA+ or something, and it came out with a similar but more pronounced chart. Basically, Maddux had a brief peak period where he was better, and Clemens had the best seasons of them both on bookends of that. And the second thing you get from looking at this, of course, is: both of these guys were incredible.

They are actually a fairly good set to compare straight up. They played a similar number of seasons (one more for Clemens) and pitched a similar number of innings (92 2/3 more for Maddux). Clemens has the edge in most areas at first glance, with a 31.6 career WAR edge and more seasons above six, seven, eight, nine and ten wins than Maddux had.

Of course, how much -- if at all -- you choose to discredit Clemens for questionable late-career performances is up for a debate I'm not going to get in to, but something else that should be pointed out is the strike years.

Maddux's best seasons came right during the MLBPA strike of 94-95, which lowers his potential WAR totals. If we prorate both of their performances over a 162 game season in those years (simple, but just for a quick look at what may have been missed), that period of history looks more like this:

Madduxclemens2_medium 

That actually makes a pretty significant difference. Maddux picks up a two-year span of 20 wins and it gives him probably the better peak (though Clemens had two), and the best and third best seasons of the two (and also gives Clemens another 8+ WAR year), though it only pulls him to withing 0.8 of Clemens over their careers (though it pushes him past Niekro and almost to Seaver).

I don't think we have an open-and-shut case here, despite the career advantage for Clemens, and I'd be interested in hearing who everyone here thinks was the better pitcher.

And, of course, here is your nth best season graph (sans the strike adjustment):

 Madduxvsclemens3_medium
WAR data supplied by Sean Smith's Historical WAR Database.

0 recs  |  Comment 11 comments |

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If pitching WAR included fielding

I think they would be closer. For most pitchers, the difference in fielding prowess is negligible, however Maddux was probalby the best fielding pitcher ever (I don’t have anything to back that up besides the GG… crap), and Clemens was probably not a very good defender (again, I don’t have anything to back that up, besides the fact that he was a power pitcher, and they tend to be a lot worse at feilding due to their erratic follow throughs). Over 20+ years, I would be that difference adds up to a lot. How much, I don’t know, but I would be surprised if it closed the gap considerably.

St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008

by vivaelpujols on Apr 29, 2009 10:43 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I'm pretty sure Sean's version of pitching WAR includes pitcher fielding.

He’s starting with ERA, then adjusting for the defense behind the pitcher, ballpark, etc. But I believe he’s not removing a pitcher’s fielding rating.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Apr 29, 2009 11:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I refuse to believe that Maddux was worse than Clemens

I blame the steroids.

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by Zach Sanders on Apr 29, 2009 11:24 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Agree

While Clemens’ graph looks slighly better – there’s a medical reason for that.

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by FishingMN on Apr 30, 2009 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

rather similar postseason numbers, too.

i was surprised to see clemens was the better hitter. maddux was way cooler, though.

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by larry on Apr 29, 2009 11:29 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

A1 and A2

The beauty of the debate was the difference in styles. Pitching and apparently beyond.

I once heard the following, which I thought was interesting. “Maddux was the better pitcher, but I’d rather have Roger start Game 7 of the World Series if I had the choice”. Can’t remember who said it, it was a back-and-forth in the booth in some ballgame sometime, somewhere.

by Harry Pavlidis on Apr 29, 2009 11:31 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

clemens was the better pitcher, but i'd rather have maddux marry my sister.

the truth can't hurt you, it's just like the dark/ it scares you witless, but in time you see things clear and stark -- macmanus

by tom s. on Apr 30, 2009 1:41 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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