FG: Small Sample Size Usefulness

Dave Cameron has a little bit to say about dismissing three weeks of evidence based on small sample size. His argument is, essentially, that many in the sabermetrics community tend to cling to the SSS tennent so tightly that they will resist anything that may run counter to their pre-season predictions entirely, when some of the information is actually pretty useful.

I think he has a pretty good point, and uses Victor Martinez and updated ZiPS projections to help make it.

And, he caught the eye of Rob Neyer, who linked to his FG post and summed up the whole idea pretty well, I think:

"Every day gives us numbers that mean something, and every additional day gives us more meaning. And I think that's especially true when you're talking about a team that's made big changes, or a player like Martinez who's coming off an obviously aberrant season. Everything counts."

almost 3 years ago philkid3 3 comments 0 recs |

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

It all depends what the data is.

AVG is extremely variable. HR/AB is less variable.

Results based data is more variable than scouting style data. If you’re wondering whether a pitcher with injury issues is healthy and he’s throwing 98, even after just one start, that’s pretty meaningful.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Apr 29, 2009 9:34 PM EDT reply actions

That makes sense.

What — spawned by another FanGraphs debate — do you personally make of Andruw Jones?

And That Happened: Sports with a Hint of Sarcasm

by philkid3 on Apr 29, 2009 9:48 PM EDT up reply actions

I think that SSS results are most useful for evaluating players with a certain ammount of uncertainty going into the season

For example, while Andruw Jones’ 1.000+ OPS in like 35 plate appearances doesn’t really tell you how well he will hit this year, the fact that he walking and hitting for power shows that he is clearly much better than last year, when he didn’t even have 3 or 4 game stretches with this kind of production. Ditto with Victor Martinez, who has shown a lot of power this year as apposed to last.

St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008

by vivaelpujols on Apr 29, 2009 10:48 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs