Get Off the Armando Galarraga Bandwagon

by Sky Kalkman on Apr 28, 2009 3:46 PM EDT

I've read a lot of Tweets and blog posts recently about how Armando Galarraga is an underrated option for fantasy teams. Simply put, he's not. And because so many people feel he's an ace, my advice is that you probably want to trade him to those suckers immediately. To make my point, here's an imaginary debate between me and Fantasy Smart Guy, where I give him the saber what for, using a lot of Fangraphs data.

Fantasy Smart Guy: Armando Galarraga rules! Since I'm an expert and I don't think enough people have heard of the guy, I'm going to pimp him hardcore. A young starter with a 3.73 ERA during his rookie season is awe -- wait for it -- some!

Sky: I'll spare you the ERA jokes, but only if you take a look at his .247 BABIP last year. He gave up a much larger percentage of batted balls that were turned into outs than you'd expect based on any pitcher's skill. While a 2.1 K/BB ratio is nice, it's not all that great. The 3.73 ERA was a fluke and shouldn't be expected to happen again soon.

Fantasy Smart Guy: How about you stop cherry-picking stats and look at Galarraga's 2008 homerun rate? He gave up 1.4 per nine innings. That can't be sustainable, either, can it?

Sky: Well, Galarraga is a fly ball pitcher, giving up 40% of his batted balls in the air last year. The fact that 13% of them went for home runs does seem a bit high and might regress a bit towards 11% going forward. But even if you regress the home run rate, regressing the BABIP makes a bigger difference. From statcorner.com, Galarraga's 2008 tERA* was 4.40, which is our best guess at what his true talent was. His 2008 FIP was even higher at 4.88, but I'm ok if you ignore that in favor of the tRA data.

Fantasy Smart Guy: Well, whatever, maybe he was a bit overrated last year, but look at 2009! His BABIP is up into the no-luck range at .287 and he's striking out 8.9 hitters per game! I'll admit that his 1.85 ERA is too low, but his FIP is a still-awesome 3.37. He's an ace!

Sky: If you don't use fewer exclamation points I'm going to change your name to Sparkly Ponies Guy. Yes, the strikeout rate is really nice, but the walk rate has also gone up, from 3.1 to 4.1 per game. And, while Galarraga was a bit unlucky with home runs on fly balls last year, he's been quite lucky with them this year, with only 5% leaving the park. Nobody's that good.

Sparkly Ponies Guy: Ok, then, smart guy, if Galarraga isn't this good, how good is he?

Sky: I thought you were the smart guy? Anyway, let's go back to the tRA data. Galarraga's 2009 tERA* is 4.75. What does that mean? Well, in addition to last year's 4.40 tERA*, he appears to be about a 4.50 ERA pitcher given a neutral defense, neutral park, neutral league and neutral luck. Of course, anything's possible, and the improved strikeout rate this year is a good sign, along with a slightly higher ground ball rate.

Overall, I'd call Galarraga a league average pitcher who's benefited from some fortunate circumstances. Let's see how it plays out. But, Mr. Fantasy Smart Guy, you should probably think about cashing in on his early success, selling high.

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Comments

Hey Sky, leave "Sparkly Ponies Guy" alone. That was genius what he did at ESPN

by Jeff Zimmerman on Apr 28, 2009 4:04 PM EDT reply actions

I still wish we'd protected him, regardless.

And That Happened: Sports with a Hint of Sarcasm

by philkid3 on Apr 28, 2009 4:04 PM EDT reply actions

Yes, but feel better that the Tigers stole a league-average pitcher instead of an ace.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Apr 28, 2009 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions

I asked for a saber what for for Christmas

and all I got was this lousy wireless keyboard

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by Matt Klaassen on Apr 28, 2009 4:25 PM EDT reply actions

i think Fantasy Smart Guy should be a regular feature on this site.

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by larry on Apr 28, 2009 4:48 PM EDT reply actions

that and "Fantasy Smart Girl"

although that might be a bit different

I'm not a sabermetrician, but I do play one at Driveline Mechanics.

by Matt Klaassen on Apr 28, 2009 4:54 PM EDT up reply actions

as would Sparkly Ponies Guy.

that could be an underserved niche market, however.

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by larry on Apr 28, 2009 5:58 PM EDT up reply actions

If someone could make me an avatar that's one of the images from the ESPN unicorns hack, that'd be awesome...

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Apr 28, 2009 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions

I took a screen shot after only a few unicorns, but here:

http://i44.tinypic.com/30ndvdu.jpg

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by bdalebs on Apr 28, 2009 5:51 PM EDT up reply actions

Found some options:

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Apr 29, 2009 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions

I feel like

I just had my picture taken with a flash about 10 times.

G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....

by t ball on Apr 29, 2009 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions

http://www.cornify.com/

i believe this is where the espn thing came from or was inspired by

by FunkeeC on Apr 28, 2009 6:02 PM EDT reply actions

I asked the question

in a fan post on Bless you Boys…. when is it time to ignore these sabers and start focusing on pure output. Certainly guys get lucky and they find their breaks, but Armando has an entire year of success under his belt and “appears” to be on his way toward another…. Just curious. Good article. I found it very interesting.

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by Packey on Apr 28, 2009 6:20 PM EDT reply actions

three seasons.

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by larry on Apr 28, 2009 6:27 PM EDT up reply actions

Historically places exibit 50% of their actual/final ability at ~1000 PA. No more noise in the data

Larry is probably right with 3 seasons.

by Jeff Zimmerman on Apr 28, 2009 6:41 PM EDT up reply actions

Damian Moss.

I’m sure we could find other examples if we looked. In fact, that’s a challenge:

Find pitchers whose ERAs significantly underperformed their FIPS (or tERA*s or whatever) for at least two seasons. Feel free to guess and check or find them systematically.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Apr 28, 2009 9:57 PM EDT up reply actions

I guess it's back to the Joe Saunders bandwagon.

by VictorW on Apr 29, 2009 3:42 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs

Another defender slinks over from BYBs

Sky, I think Sparkling Ponies Guy, i.e. the figment of our imaginations formerly known as Smart, is a straw man.

You’re both asking two different questions:
1) Is A.G. a fantasy ace?
2) Should you offload now?

I think his name has made the circles enough now that he’s no longer an “underrated” player, but he’s also been consistent enough to be what he looks like.

“Well, Galarraga is a fly ball pitcher, giving up 40% of his batted balls in the air last year. The fact that 13% of them went for home runs does seem a bit high and might regress a bit towards 11% going forward.”

Here’s a typical Galarraga night (Aug 31, 2008):
http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfx/index.php?month=8&day=31&year=2008&game=gid_2008_08_31_kcamlb_detmlb_1%2F&pitchSel=451482.xml&prevGame=gid_2008_08_31_kcamlb_detmlb_1%2F&prevDate=831

Tell me how many “fly ball pitchers” you know who flip 55-45 between his fastball and a slider that’s all V-break, with a high number of changeups. Is that a fly ball pitcher, because it looks an awful lot to me like a groundball pitcher.

Now look at that slider, which he threw 45 times. 34 were strikes. This isn’t a guy throwing a breaking ball for strikeouts. And nobody throws 85-mph sliders down the heart of the plate on purpose without a very good reason.

Galarraga’s got one: he’s got a slider with a sharp, late, but small V-break…about 2 inches. That’s just enough to be an instant ground ball to a guy who thinks he’s swinging at fat, fat heat.

Now look at the pitch speed. He’s all over the place.

The heaters, you’ll notice on this night, were inside, many of them balls. There’s a few balls bunched up, too, right below the strike zone.

This is a vintage strategy for a guy with a good breaking pitch he can locate. You pound hitters inside with your fastball, keep ’em honest with a regular changeup thrown in there, and then put the sinkers in the strike zone and watch ball after ball get pounded into the ground.

Blogging Smart Guy If he’s a groundball pitcher, then how do you explain all those fly ball outs? 40 percent Comment Fella!

That’s his changeup you’re seeing, I believe. It’s got a floater effect kind of like Fernando Rodney’s that hitters think they can catch up to, but end up getting underneath for a no-trouble high fly ball. On the other hand, like Rodney’s, when it doesn’t float, that sucker is gone.

It’s never going to yield high K rates. But I think with a much-improved infield behind him, A-G is likely to repeat last year’s performance in ERA.

Make me liar.

by Misopogon on Apr 29, 2009 4:52 PM EDT reply actions