Historical Pitching WAR Now at Baseball Projection

I like getting presents for no reason whatsoever when I settle down after a busy weekend!

Sean Smith has improved his awesome WAR database at baseballprojection.com with pitching WAR in the Retro Sheet era.

So, that's pretty cool. Want to know what Greg Maddux was worth over his career in a way you can compare to position players? Just head to the pitching WAR index right here. Also available in Top 300 form. Erik already used this to compare non-Hall of Famer Bert Blyeven to Hall of Famers Don Sutton and Nolan Ryan below.

It's not the most sortable of databases, it's only back to 1953, there may be better ways to do things that someone will come along and present, and I'm personally not entirely clear on the methodology, but it's still really nifty to see. I also love that it's apparently adjusted for "pitchers' opponents," something that I think should be a major part of analyzing a pitcher's performance.

Anyway, have fun. Talk about what stands out to you.

9 months ago philkid3 20 comments 1 recs |

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This. Is. Awesome.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4pXfHLUlZf4

-Zach Sanders
MLB Notebook.com
Roto Rat.com

by mlbnotebook on Apr 26, 2009 11:01 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Koufax vs. Pedro

It’s really weird to look at Koufax’s career in graph form.

And That Happened: Sports with a Hint of Sarcasm

by philkid3 on Apr 26, 2009 11:10 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I can't wait to compare hitters and pitchers.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Apr 27, 2009 9:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm looking forward to comparing starters and relievers, myself.

by adarowski on Apr 27, 2009 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

there's really not much comparison

by erik on Apr 27, 2009 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

Well put.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Apr 27, 2009 7:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

what leverage "bonus" do you guys like for relievers?

White Sox Minor League Updates at http://twitter.com/SouthSidelarry

by larry on Apr 27, 2009 9:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Multiply innings by their saves

St. Louis Cardinals... defying win expectancy since 2008

by vivaelpujols on Apr 27, 2009 11:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Tango's been splitting the difference between LI and 1.0

Which appears to be what Sean used.

by Dan Turkenkopf on Apr 27, 2009 11:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes, chaining is important.

I’m not totally sold, but based on an article I wrote last night which I thought would have a different outcome, but ended up supporting chaining, I think I’m on board. I’ll re-write it and publish it. Nothing more than expanding on Tango’s description of chaining.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Apr 28, 2009 7:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I do wonder if we can get a bit more accurate than averaging LI and 1.

I mean, if there’s a systematic short-changing or overcrediting of relievers by, say, .05 LI, that’s going to add up.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Apr 28, 2009 7:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Chaining makes intuitive sense

But I’m not sure how to best calculate it. Perhaps your deLI work will help.

by Dan Turkenkopf on Apr 28, 2009 10:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm guessing/hoping calculus will be required.

Instead of assuming six or seven discrete players making up the theoretically average bullpen, we’ll probably need to create a distribution of innings by FIP and LI, described by a continuous function and adjusted to include each pitcher’s actual performance. Then when you remove the pitcher, things change. The sum of all those little changes requires the summing of some infinitessimal differences. Or so my not so clear mind thinks.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Apr 28, 2009 10:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs