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Jarrod Washburn's New Approach

The Seattle Mariners are off to a good start, helped out by some surprisingly good pitching by Jarrod Washburn.  A lot of folks had given up on the veteran lefty, but he seems to have made an significant adjustment that may be making a big difference this April.

Washburn is a five-pitch pitcher, using a fastball (four-seam, F4) a sinker (two-seam, F2) slider (SL) curve (CU) and change (CH).  Against lefties, Washburn typically discards the change, while it's the slider that gets shelved against righties.

Washburn will throw a fair share of sliders to lefites, but his pattern is really dominated by fastballs and supported by the rest.  Until this year.

Wash-mix_medium

I broke the lines where the years change (click to enlarge).  You can see a big spike in sinker (F2) usage, especially in Washburn's second and third outings.

The biggest change is against right-handed batters, and early in the count.

Wash-bycount2_medium

I realize that right pane is messy, but that's kinda the point.  First and foremost, over 70% of first pitches to RHH have been sinkers this season.  It was less than 20% over the prior two years worth of PITCHf/x data.

Beyond the increase in sinkers, Washburn is also throwing more change-ups in some counts.  He's still sticking with the four-seam fastball with three balls.  Which is interesting, since he's been owning the zone with the sinker this year.

Washburn is throwing the sinker for strikes over 70% of the time, while he was in the lower/mid 50's in years past.  That's using a two-foot wide plate, which is how the game is typically played and called.

70% is a very high rate, and isn't likely to be sustained.  For now, it's enabling him to get ahead of a lot of hitters.

Without regard to balls in play, there has been a jump in Washburn's ratio of getting ahead to getting behind when throwing an 0-0 sinker (this covers both lefties and righties):

 2007  0.93:1 (fell behind more often)
2008  0.89:1 (ditto)
2009  1.60:1 (hey now!)

And the sinker is being put in play less (or the same) on 0-0 counts:

 2007  15%
2008  12%
2009  11%

I should note, to date, he has given up some solid hits off the sinker and isn't missing many bats with it.  That's a function of being in the zone, and possibly some luck. 

At this stage, there's luck running rampant all over the place.  As long as Washburn has hitters off balance and is throwing strikes, the sinker could very well be a key to his new found success.

 

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Umm

This is one of the most interesting websites I’ve ever seen. Harry, I wish I could give you some kind of intelligent feedback on that post, but it is so over my head at the moment, I wouldn’t even know where to start.

Hope you guys don’t mind if I hang around and keep reading?

by Fridge72 on Apr 24, 2009 8:18 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Welcome, and thank you

and please ask questions without hesitation.

by Harry Pavlidis on Apr 24, 2009 8:22 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks

I imagine I’ll have a lot of questions eventually

by Fridge72 on Apr 24, 2009 8:30 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

This was one of my favorite player-specific pitch f/x articles of all time.

Lots of awesome information without being too geeky. (Though it takes a lot to be too geeky with me.)

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Apr 24, 2009 9:10 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks, I had to restrain myself though

I have about 30 graphs that I used to get a grip on this guy.

by Harry Pavlidis on Apr 24, 2009 9:12 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

We love questions. From everyone.

As long as you don’t expect answers all the time. It’s more fun when questions breed more questions. Or when RJ breeds.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Apr 24, 2009 9:08 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I never, really, expect answers

from anyone, explanations and deliberations are always helpful. I love the idea of all this math, sports, and recreation. Seems like a healthy combination. Do you guys ever cover any sports besides baseball? Right now, I confess, I’d never heard of sabermetrics before yesterday and have generally been more of a football and hockey fan than baseball.

When I googled it, there was an option for sabermetrics/football. Either way, I appreciate your welcoming and hope you guys don’t mind me hanging around and trying to get the hang of this?

Was that last sentence an example of the sarcasm described in the community guidelines?

by Fridge72 on Apr 25, 2009 5:55 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

There is similar analysis done for other sports, yes. But not here.

For football, check out footballoutsiders.com and advancednflstats.com

I’m less familiar with other sports, hopefully others can chime in.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Apr 25, 2009 8:12 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'll certainly be looking out for this in the game on sunday, thanks.

I was at Shea for the Felix-Slam!
Personal M's record: 5-4.

by EnglishMariner on Apr 25, 2009 5:52 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

He threw a lot of sinkers

The bigger blob in the top middle are four-seamers. To the left, above 84 mph, are sinkers. Below are change-ups. Sliders and curves as you move right and down. Maybe a cutter up in there, too.

by Harry Pavlidis on Apr 26, 2009 5:40 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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