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A Quick Illustration on How Assumptions Are Sometimes Wrong

Using Rally's top 300 players by WAR list, let's take a little two-part question quiz.

Which of the following players had the lowest career WAR and which of the players had the highest single season WAR?

A. Edgar Martinez

B. Mark McGwire

C. Larry Walker

D. Tim Raines (Sr.)

The answer(s) might surprise you.

Star-divide

0 recs  |  Comment 35 comments |

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McGwire...

is a poster child for why the arbitrary standards (300 wins, 500 HR, etc.) are bogus. Simply based on his production, he’s pretty borderline if you ask me. Only 3 seasons of 6+ WAR? That’s fewer than Andruw Jones, Chipper Jones, Ron Santo, Gary Carter, Nomar Garciaparra, and more.

by BraveBronco0121 on Mar 9, 2009 7:05 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Well

he should get a bonus for setting the single season home run record. It isn’t really his fault that his production wasn’t great. If he was in the AL and DHed like Martinez, than it would have been higher in the second half of his career.

vivaelbeñsheets

by vivaelpujols on Mar 9, 2009 7:10 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Maybe a little bit...

but not much. His defense in St. Louis was -27 during his time there. If we turn that to zero and add the -8 runs/162 difference between a 1B and a DH, there isn’t a significant uptick in his value. I just don’t think that, at least with Rally’s data, pure hitters who do nothing else have as much value as a lot of people would think. Between his baserunning, defense, and position, you can shave ~18 wins from McGwire’s career value.

by BraveBronco0121 on Mar 9, 2009 10:29 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Blasphemer! Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa saved baseball!!!™

Space.

It's a problem we face.

So we never go anywhere.

We just stay in one place.

by hazel on Mar 9, 2009 8:11 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

For me, Barry Bonds saved baseball.

When I was a kid I used to pray every night for a new bicycle. Then I realized God doesn’t work that way, so I stole one and prayed for forgiveness. - Emo Philips

Neglectful father of David Quinowski

by marcello on Mar 9, 2009 9:53 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

But Barry Bonds is a Cheater!™

And a Clubhouse Cancer!™

Space.

It's a problem we face.

So we never go anywhere.

We just stay in one place.

by hazel on Mar 9, 2009 10:41 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

For me, they made me love it.

Who's world is it? It's yours.

by BlackOps on Mar 9, 2009 10:52 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I assumed that the graphs would reveal something contradicting the assumption of a common sports fan.

Raines may have been the perfect leadoff man for an extended period, but that will never be as valuable as what McGwire did for the game in a short one.

by Daniel Berlyn on Mar 9, 2009 10:19 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Are we supposed to be able to tell the answer to the second question from the graphs?

Because I can’t tell for sure who had the best career WAR, although it looks like its Walker.

by Brendan Scolari on Mar 9, 2009 10:24 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I think the point is that you should be able to tell it definitely wasn't McGwire.

Space.

It's a problem we face.

So we never go anywhere.

We just stay in one place.

by hazel on Mar 9, 2009 10:43 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oh

Its not very clear that that’s the point in the article. All of those guys could be Hall of Famers (beside Walker probably, because of Coors) so I’m not sure why we would assume McGwire was on top.

by Brendan Scolari on Mar 9, 2009 11:03 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Coors Shmoors

Isn’t Rally’s WAR park adjusted?

vivaelbeñsheets

by vivaelpujols on Mar 9, 2009 11:07 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yes I think it does.

But people will somewhat disregard his offensive numbers because of Coors. Also he only reached 40 homers once, 20 steals three times, and only one MVP. Considering walks are undervalued for Hall consideration, he just doesn’t have the eye-popping stats that get guys enshrined. All-around players who aren’t flashy tend to get thrown under the rug.

by Brendan Scolari on Mar 10, 2009 1:29 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Still though

He was above average offensively in every single full season that he played and his peak years were some of the best offensive season of all time. He slugged over .700 twice in a 3 year period. And he has a high batting average, which the BBWAA loves.

vivaelbeñsheets

by vivaelpujols on Mar 10, 2009 1:35 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Maybe he'll get in

I’m no fortune teller. But my guess is that he doesn’t for the reasons I said. Also, those slugging percentages were in Coor’s heyday. And while the above average thing is nice, thats exactly the kind of thing the BBWAA doesn’t care about. They’d have rather Walker gotten to 500 HR, 300 steals, or had a World Series ring.

by Brendan Scolari on Mar 10, 2009 1:46 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Eh

Who cares really. The Hall of Fame doesn’t matter to me, its not my career. I just care about what happens on the field, not all of the awards and all of that. Maybe once some players I care about more get shunned from the Hall…

by Brendan Scolari on Mar 10, 2009 1:54 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well

I am a Cards fan, and Walker was a big part of the team in that 04-05 run we had (albeit, no championships). Even at the end of his career, playing outside of Coors, he was still a very good player. I would hate to seem him denied for some stupid reason.

vivaelbeñsheets

by vivaelpujols on Mar 10, 2009 2:24 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

No doubt I don't like seeing players get screwed

but at the end of the day, it doesn’t matter really. Maybe if Manny plays a couple more years for the Dodgers and then doesn’t get in the Hall I’d be pissed.

by Brendan Scolari on Mar 10, 2009 2:35 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think the better overall player answer is up for debate.

To me, it’s definitely not McGwire. And I’d likely take Martinez.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Mar 10, 2009 2:40 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Unless I'm mistaken, there are no era adjustments here.

In other words, we think that we know that league quality improves as a function of time. McGuire may have fewer WAR than the other players on the list, but he was probably being compared to a better replacement player than the others as well.

by cwyers on Mar 10, 2009 1:02 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Seems like a meaningless criticism,

unless you want to say the league will have become so much better we will eventually be inducting every player.

Space.

It's a problem we face.

So we never go anywhere.

We just stay in one place.

by hazel on Mar 10, 2009 2:42 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

You've got it backwards, actually

We’ll never induct every player, but we will leave out a lot of players that would have a higher WAR and been considered HOF type players had they played in a different era. Had Omar Vizquel, a borderline HOF SS in this era, played from 1950-1970, he’s a sure fire HOF player and he probably has a career WAR much higher than it is in his current era, simply because the replacement level at SS was lower back then than it is now, with HR hitters like Tejada manning his position. Look at the SS from that era that are in the HOF and then compare their stats, both offensively and defensively, with Vizquel. When you do that he looks like a sure fire HOF player, and he won’t be because of the amount of great offensive SS that played in his era. His numbers compare very favorably to Ozzie Smith’s, and he’s been the best defensive SS in the game for most of his career — he just played in the juiced ball (and player) era, so we don’t appreciate him as much.

For instance, take Pee Wee Reese. His career numbers aren’t any better than those of Dave Concepcion or Alan Trammel, yet he is in the HOF and those guys are on the outside looking in, and probably will remain that way. In Reese’s era, he was the BEST SS in the game for most of his career. In seasons where he played more than 130 games, he missed the all-star game exactly 3 times in 12 seasons. If you put him in today’s game, it’s hard to find a season where he would be clearly the best player at his position, let alone for 10 years in a row.

"I just wish that the late Harry Caray were still around so I could hear him mispronounce 'Kosuke Fukudome' every fukun' night" -- Dennis Miller

by fourstick on Mar 10, 2009 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I tend to agree with some of this...

I’ve got a feeling the average major leaguer today is significantly better than the average major leaguer of the 50s. The talent pool is much larger, now including all of Latin America and Asia to some extent, plus the restrictions on African American players don’t exist anymore. Front offices are far more sophisticated in their evaluations of a player’s abilities than ever, so it’s quite possible that increased efficiency has led to fewer untapped resources in the market. In addition, athletes in general seem to be stronger and faster than ever.

Now, quantifying that is well beyond my skills.

by BraveBronco0121 on Mar 10, 2009 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Are you guys familiar with Dan Rosenheck's work?

Most of it can be found at the Hall of Merit over at BBTF.

He’s doing pretty much what you suggest in figuring an accurate replacement level based on the actual spread of talent at a position. It’s one of the reasons he supports Davey Concepcion for the Hall of Fame – there really wasn’t any value in the NL at SS in the 70s.

by Dan Turkenkopf on Mar 10, 2009 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Does that matter, though?

It’s like today’s 2B position. For whatever, reason, there isn’t a lot of 2B talent even though it’s not all that tough of a position relative to SS and 3B… Should today’s 2B get a bump in credit? Should today’s group of gold class 3Bs be docked credit? I don’t think so – isn’t that the whole point of the defensive position adjustment?

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Mar 10, 2009 5:30 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well, maybe...

Because the replacement value isn’t set based on the top talents, but on some relatively constant variance from the worst regulars in the league.

That gets around the problem of having a lot of superstar players at a position.

The positional adjustment is good when you assume players can get just move from one position to another – but managers have tended not to behave that way with their SS.

In the 70s, you needed to be a very effective fielder or you wouldn’t be playing SS. That led to a lot of really terrible offensive performances and a very low positional replacement value.

by Dan Turkenkopf on Mar 10, 2009 6:05 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think it comes down to this - should the positional adjustment an offensive or defensive adjustment?

If it’s an offensive one, then I’ve got a feeling that the shortstops of the old days would get a much bigger bump than they get right now. Getting offense out of that position was a hell of a lot harder in the 60s and 70s than it is now – hell, from the 90s on, I can think of a dozen shortstops who were significant offensive contributors. I can hardly think of that many from the 50s through the 80s, but that’s completely unscientific (especially since I’m not old enough to remember much of that period.)

It seems to me that DR is construing it as an offensive adjustment, but I’ve only glanced over it so far.

As I’m writing, DT just replied and I think his post is far more reflective of Rosenheck’s method – as I said, I’ve just glanced over it so I’m not going to try to speak to it with any authority right now.

by BraveBronco0121 on Mar 10, 2009 6:07 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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