Beyond the Box Score: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Around SBN: Can Tebow Say No To Anything?

NL East Farm System Values

Continuing our division by division series of Farm System Values, the NL East is now up to bat. As a refresher, here again are Victor Wang's surplus values for the different classes of prospects:

 

Top 10 hitting prospects $32.5M
Top 11-25 hitters $22.3
Top 26-50 hitters $20.8
Top 51-75 hitters $12.6
Top 76-100 hitters $11.1
Top 10 pitching prospects $13.5
Top 11-25 pitchers $14.2
Top 26-50 pitchers $14.2
Top 51-75 pitchers $10.8
Top 76-100 pitchers $8.7
Grade B pitchers (as graded by Sickels)
$6.5
Grade B hitters $4.9
Grade C pitchers 22 or younger $1.9
Grade C pitchers 23 or older $1.3
Grade C hitters 22 or younger $0.62
Grade C hitters 23 or older $0.45

 

...and here is the graph illustrating the total surplus values for each farm system in the division:

15548389_medium

via www.editgrid.com

Note: B and C grade prospects are taken from John Sickels' Top 20's published at his blog. Occasionally John changes a grade between the time he publishes his top 20's and his annual book. It is also likely that some C grade prospects at lower levels were left off the Top 20's. In my mind, neither issue should have that large of an affect.

Random comments on each system:

  • Nationals, $58.41M: Bowden was just bad for the Nats on so many levels. Take for instance not signing their first round pick, Aaron Crow over a mere $900K. Jim Callis of BA said Crow would have likely placed in the top 40 had he signed, meaning an extra $14.2M of surplus value for Washington.  RHP Jordan Zimmermann is the only player that made BA's Top 100. Drafted out of a D III school in the 2nd round of the '07 draft, he's not a classic, flame-throwing pitching prospect, but he has a four-pitch mix and sharp command. Washington's next best prospects are OF Michael Burgess, a kid with old player skills, and Ross Detwiler, who despite having good "stuff" posted a disappointing 4.94 tRA in A-ball last year.  Whoever becomes Washington's new GM has a tough row to hoe. Stephen Strasburg will be a good start.
  • Mets, $83.43: While he's no future ace, I'm pretty sure Jon Niese could out-pitch Freddy Garcia and Tim Redding this season if given the opportunity. I am not sure what this says for the Mets' ability to draft, but Brad Holt was picked after 1st rounders Ike Davis and Reese Havens, yet holds a $3.2M value advantage over both prospects combined.  (Sickels is no fan of Davis) What the Metropolitans lack in their ability to draft, they make up for in international scouting (Jose Reyes, anyone?) - 50% of their farm system value comes from two Latin American players, both under 20 years of age.  Fernando Martinez held his own as a 19 year old in AA, hitting for a .346 wOBA. Flores hit well in rookie ball, but his expected ETA at the earliest is 2012.

Now let's look at the top three systems graphically -

 

15548560_medium

via www.editgrid.com

Total Surplus Value: $95.59. This is a pretty healthy system. Dominic Brown is still mostly projection, but has star talent. There are high ceiling players in the system who could take a big step forward this upcoming season, but for now the lion share of the Phillies' value lies with players that may not necessarily have superstar potential but project to be solid regulars.

15548539_medium

via www.editgrid.com

Total Surplus Value: $144.35M. I've already wrote at length about the impressive depth of outfield talent the Braves have, but check out that pitching depth - $45.5M worth of B grade pitchers, and then they also have Tommy Hanson, the 2nd ranked pitching prospect in the game, as the icing on the cake. The Braves could have rated even higher, but used some their impressive minor league depth to land Javier Vazquez this winter.

15548550_medium

via www.editgrid.com


Total Surplus Value: $147.96M. The Marlins hitting depth is astounding, with five top 100 position players worth a surplus value of $100.8M. With this impressive farm system, the Marlins should field a solid team for years to come; too bad no one will care. I can't say I blame Florida fans - why get attached to future stars like Cameron Maybin or Mike Stanton when they eventually will be moved to organizations that actually give a flip?

Summing up, the Braves and Marlins are loaded with ridiculous talent. Atlanta will utilize it for the good of their fans, Loria will use it to line his pockets. The Mets have some impressive high-ceiling Latin players who could either boom or bust and are  a few years away. The Phillies should be good for a while and the Nationals should suck for a long time. Dropping Bowden and adding Strasburg are moves in the right direction but rebuilding could take a while.

Next up: The AL Central.

0 recs  |  Comment 10 comments |

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Display:

Hey

This is interesting stuff.

I’ll be interested to see the AL Central info next as a Twins fan. I’m guessing that they will more in the Mets range as they have a bunch of B-/C+ guys but only 3 Top 100 guys. Wish they had a few more guys in their system that were ready for this year.

Visit my D2 Baseball Blog - Northern Sun Baseball

by FishingMN on Mar 9, 2009 2:15 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

sneak preview

Twins are better than the Mets.

Just throwing this out there, but for a point of reference, the average team had a surplus value $91.3M

by erik on Mar 9, 2009 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I that the Marlins

and their fan will be happy to read this.

vivaelbeƱsheets

by vivaelpujols on Mar 9, 2009 2:26 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Really?

Well I guess it is because they have the best hitters, while Oakland and Texas have better pitching. And hitters are more valuable by this system.

vivaelbeƱsheets

by vivaelpujols on Mar 10, 2009 2:25 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Love it.

I'm not not licking toads...

by Smoltz's Beard on Mar 9, 2009 3:06 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

random question but

why is the surplus value of a top 10 pitching prospect less than that of 11-50?

by joeiz on Mar 9, 2009 3:15 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

what Sky said

it feels funny to say Wade Davis has more surplus value than David Price. I may just bump all top 50 prospects to the same value going forward. Victor only had 26 top ten P to work w/out of the group he used.

by erik on Mar 9, 2009 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

We use numbers and stuff.
Community Guidelines
Why be a member?
Start posting on Beyond the Box Score »

Join SB Nation and dive into communities focused on all your favorite teams.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

770insig_small
BtB's "Ball On A Budget" Fantasy League - Discuss Participants, Payrolls and Position Eligibility

Recent FanPosts

Ds9_small
good graphing program?
Small
Predicting HR/FB Rates
Leopold_butter_scotch_southpark_small
Troy Tulowitzki vs Ryan Braun
Small
Pitchers batted ball observations
Small
Eric Byrnes: A player worth a look?
Small
Valverde Is Charging Detroit Double
Mukuro_small
Another question: About power rankings
Small
Why You Shouldn't Trade for Arroyo
Jinaz-reds-avatar_small
Last Call for BtB Sabermetric Writing Award Nominations

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

FanShots

Quick hits of video, photos, quotes, chats, links and lists that you find around the web.

Recent FanShots

Can you spot the five guys NOT in the Hall of Fame? It's easy, I separated 'em for ya. :)

Here's the full post about guys elected to the Hall of Fame primarily for their defense. Guys like Brooks Robinson, Ozzie Smith, Bobby Wallace, John Ward, and Bid McPhee stand up as definite HOFers, with many others worthy of debate (and a couple aren't worth any debate at all).

I almost made it through the whole post without comparing some HOFers to our friends Bill Dahlen, Lou Whitaker, Bobby Grich, Alan Trammell, and Ron Santo. Almost.
If you care about newspaper coverage of MLB, read this post
Visualizing the Difference Between Offensive and Defensive Value for Catchers
First B-Pro and now ESPN. Tommy, you're growing up so fast
THT - Advancing by ground
Negro League Museum Close to Folding
It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly one...
Ranking Minor League Systems Using Victors Wang's Prospect Valuations
Pitch f/x on Ricky Nolasco Stretch vs. Windup again
Veron Wells the artist.  I never knew.

http://www.vwellsart.com/

+ New FanShot All FanShots >

BtB on Twitter

Main Feed: @BtBScore

Jeff: @jeffwzimmerman
Steve: @steve_sommer
Sky: @BtB_Sky
Dan: @dturkenk
Harry: @harrypav
Jinaz: @jinazreds
Jack: @jh_moore
Erik: @Erik_Manning
Tommy R: @trancel
Justin: @justinbopp

Subscribe to BtB via Email

Enter your email address:

Delivered by FeedBurner

BtB Goes Social


Managers

Wbc_029_small Jeff Sullivan

Editors

Rawlings_baseball_bigger_small Dan Turkenkopf

Limes_125_small Sky Kalkman

770insig_small Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal)

Aviles_small Justin Bopp

Authors

Roots_game_small R.J. Anderson

Jinaz-reds-avatar_small JinAZ

Face_small Harry Pavlidis

1753738656_110919ebe9_o_small vivaelpujols

Ozzie_small erik

Raysring1_small Tommy Rancel

Redcap_small SFiercex4

St_louis_cardinals_ce1141_003263_small stevesommer05

Paige_small Satchel Price