Andruw Jones v. Carlos Beltran, WAR from Rally's database.
8 months ago
BraveBronco0121
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I've added Andruw Jones to my mental list of modern players with underrated careers.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Mar 8, 2009 5:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
This makes it slightly more interesting...
Mad props to the first to get who C is…
by BraveBronco0121 on Mar 8, 2009 8:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, probably should have mentioned that
by BraveBronco0121 on Mar 8, 2009 8:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dare I say
Manny Ramirez?
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Mar 8, 2009 9:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd take Jones over Player C.
The gap in the peak years makes up for a couple more 4 WAR and 2 WAR seasons.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Mar 8, 2009 9:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And sheesh, how many people would think Andruw had a better career than Manny?
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Mar 8, 2009 10:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I sure as hell didn't...
but breaking it down, it’s actually not too tough to imagine.
Career values, via Rally’s database
Manny Ramirez
Batting Runs: 620
Fielding Runs: -106
GIDP Runs: -27
Baserunning Runs: -27
Positional Adjustment: -114
Andruw Jones
Batting Runs: 90
Fielding Runs: 180
GIDP Runs: 1
Baserunning Runs: 10
Positional Adjustment: 23
Andruw has had roughly 1,500 fewer PA, so take that into account. Manny does one thing right and is, well, pretty terrible at everything else and has been for his whole career. Andruw may not have ever been an elite hitter, but he’s the best defender the game has seen in at least twenty years.
What gets me is how far the sabermetric/statgeek/performance analysis community has come in the past decade. Defense, once seen by some as not too relevant, is finally being quantified effectively and, big surprise, it’s a very important facet of the game (just not quite as important as hitting). A walk used to be as good as a single, now we know (through some excellent work that I had no part in) it’s slightly less valuable. A strikeout used to be another out, and again we now know better. It strikes me that there has almost been some reconciliation between conventional wisdom and modern statistical analysis, as odd as that prospect may have seemed ten years ago.
by BraveBronco0121 on Mar 8, 2009 10:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not to toot our own horn though
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Mar 8, 2009 10:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Never said I contributed a thing to that knowledge base...
I just keep up with it and learn what I can.
by BraveBronco0121 on Mar 8, 2009 11:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I know
I was just kidding
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Mar 9, 2009 12:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is a gorgeous looking chart
And it really highlights the decline of Jones.
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Mar 8, 2009 6:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't think it's ordered chronologically
I could be wrong though
by staplemaniac on Mar 8, 2009 11:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was saying
that from a perennial 4-8 WAR player in the last decade, down to a -2 WAR player last year, really is incredible.
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Mar 9, 2009 12:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I enjoy the negative parabolic shape of Jones seasons
Not afraid to nitpick
by joker24 on Mar 8, 2009 11:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I've always kind've thought of Beltran and Jones as having similar Hall of Fame cases (if I was a voter), with the differences being. . .
1) A sudden drop off for Jones with Beltran looking to still produce a few more good seaons but. . .
2) Jones possibly having a “fame” type distinction as the best fielder ever at his position.
At this point, I’m not sure I’d vote for either if they retired today, but I’m not sure I wouldn’t. I do think Beltran will get to the point I won’t think about it, though. But I thought Jones would, too.
by philkid3 on Mar 8, 2009 11:25 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Wow
Everyone of these comparisons just makes Edmonds look even better:
Highest WAR: Edmonds 8.4, Jones 7.7, Beltran 7.7
Seasons with +6 WAR:
Edmonds: 7
Jones: 5
Beltran: 3
Seasons with 4-6 WAR:
Edmonds: 3
Jones: 2
Beltran: 3
by thoran85 on Mar 9, 2009 12:18 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I think it is safe to say that those are three of the best CF of all time (Rally WAR era)
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Mar 9, 2009 12:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That might have been hyperbolic
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Mar 9, 2009 12:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Damn. Add Edmonds to the list.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Mar 9, 2009 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Although, Beltran certainly could catch both guys.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Mar 9, 2009 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Some of the Best CF total WAR:
Ken Griffey: 83.1
Jim Edmonds: 67.9
Kenny Lofton: 67
Andrum Jones: 57.7
Carlos Beltran: 51
by thoran85 on Mar 9, 2009 12:47 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Lofton, Griffey, Edmonds and Jones are finished
will be interested if Beltran makes it to the 80WAR mark, still should have like 5 4+WAR and few 2-3WAR seasons left
by viktor06 on Mar 9, 2009 10:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is Edmonds finished?
He was excellent last year with the Cubs. I would bet that someone would give him a shot later on this spring.
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Mar 9, 2009 2:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think five 4+ WAR seasons might be a little optimistic to expect.
Especially given the knack for sudden decline centerfielders seem to posess.
I wouldn’t say it’s impossible, though. Or even particularly unlikely.
by philkid3 on Mar 9, 2009 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think Edmonds is quite finished
Although, he is definitley getting there. But Edmonds still has value defensively and he could be used as a platoon player. His body has taken an enormous beating over his career and I have o think that took a good 2-3 Seasons off the latter of his career, but the guy was valuable to the Cubs and as a Cardinals fan, that kills me. His 2.8 WARP3 surpassed the overrated SOB the Cardinals replaced him with (2.5) and his .883 OPS against righties shows me he can still be of help at the plate. I would advise sitting him against Lefties.
He was terrible in San Diego, but that park does not play to his strengths at all. Of course, Petco is quickly becomeing a graveyard for power hitters anyways.
by Hambone Willis on Mar 13, 2009 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Did you just call Ankiel
an overrated SOB?
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Mar 13, 2009 5:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes I Did and I have seen him play
He has Poor plate discipline and has this status as a really good fielder among the general audience. His UZR was -13.2 last year. (All outfield positions)
by Hambone Willis on Mar 14, 2009 12:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So
What is the cutoff for Hall of Fame? There are a lot of guys in that 65-70 WAR range. Ozzie, Fisk and Bench are in, but Raines, Martinez and Grich aren’t yet. Will Edmonds and Lofton make it?
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Mar 9, 2009 5:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm thinking about that a lot right now...
with this database being released, I went ahead and put every HOF position player who played ~75%+ of their career from 1955 on into a spreadsheet and graphed them as above. Career WARs range from 140+ down to the low 20s!
Personally, I’m thinking that we shouldn’t really use career WAR as much as 5 and 10 year peak WAR. I’ve run into quite a few players who have loads of +3 to +5 seasons (Rafael Palmiero comes to mind) and racked up high career WARs without ever being elite players for more than a year or two. There seem to also be a number of Ron Santo/Andruw Jones types who had very HOF worthy peaks and then tailed off very quickly.
by BraveBronco0121 on Mar 9, 2009 6:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
To me, peak years are WAY more valuable than hanging on with a bunch of 2-3 WAR seasons.
I’ve worked on a non-linear model before, maybe I’ll get back to it.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Mar 10, 2009 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If you want, you can e-mail me some of your work...
I’m no modeling guru, but since I’m looking at a lot of these things as they relate to the hall, it could be quite informative/helpful.
by BraveBronco0121 on Mar 10, 2009 8:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Nothing all that original...
yearly value = 1/8 x WAR^2
sum up the yearly values.
I was looking at various ways to change the 1/8: It’s set to more or less keep the 6 to 10 WAR seasons on the same scale as WAR. But you could set it to make the total number of adjusted WAR equal to the total number of unadjusted WAR.
I also don’t care much for trying to model what the HoF voters have done. I care about finding the bets of the best.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Mar 10, 2009 9:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
These WAR graphs are seemingly endless fun
Off the top of my head I’m not sure how much confidence I would have had in saying that Edmonds’ career was as good or better than both Beltran and Jones (I know WAR isn’t perfect though). I guess Jimmy Baseball is just that awesome.
by mattybobo on Mar 13, 2009 1:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
What?
I just don’t get this love fest with Jones. He had maybe 4 good offensive seasons. All of his value basically comes from his defense, and even then his defense trailed off every year since 1998.
by thoran85 on Mar 13, 2009 8:02 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why the love fest with Ozzie Smith? Jones' great defensive seasons were as good as Ozzie's (at a slightly easier position).
And Jones was the better hitter. It shouldn’t matter if a player provides 3 WAR with the glove and 3 with the bat versus all 6 with the bat. Players who both field like Jones and hit like Jones are extremely talented and extremely hard to find.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Mar 13, 2009 8:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree with you
but there is one caveat. While great defense is just as valuable as great offense, the defensive metrics like TZR that we all use to measure defensive value come with much more uncertainty than what what we use to measure offense. I would feel more confident that, by the metrics we use, a +20 hitter, +fielder is better than a +20 fielder, +5 hitter.
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Mar 14, 2009 2:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
There is more uncertainty, yes. And short-term, some regression is required.
Long term, you don’t need as much regression.
And, since TotalZone is only sort of based on play by play data, there’s a lot of regression that goes into anyways. The spread of value for TZ is much narrower than UZR.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Mar 14, 2009 11:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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