Graph of the Day: College Pitcher Strikeout Rates

by R.J. Anderson on Mar 7, 2009 6:00 AM EST Comment 15 comments

Collegeseniors_medium

Inspired by Matthew Carruth's FanGraphs post. I used The Baseball Cube's college data to generate total batters faced, then came up with the strikeout rate. This shows a few things:

College strikeout rates are inflated. Pedro Martinez had a 38 K% in 1999. Four players above either come close, match, or exceed that total.
How poor does the selection of Greg Reynolds look in retrospect?
Stephen Strasburg is decent.

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So...

Is there a small sample size/some other sort of misleading thing going on with Strasburg’s numbers, or is he just that good?

Brewers Baseball and other assorted nonsense (mostly the assorted nonsense) at my blog, What's a Tararrel?

by Lefti on Mar 7, 2009 10:37 AM EST reply actions 1 recs

Only three starts, so I'd imagine that number is going to go down.

But last year he was at 37%.

by R.J. Anderson on Mar 7, 2009 10:45 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

also competition.

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by larry on Mar 7, 2009 11:50 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

of course, i think his last start was against san diego and he was still obliterating guys.

southsidesox.com - now the best place on the interwebs for chicago white sox analysis and discussion.

by larry on Mar 7, 2009 11:52 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Correct

San Diego was ranked #11 in the country

churchofbaseball.com

by MJMars on Mar 7, 2009 11:57 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

yes, aside from the last start

first start was vs. bethune-cookman ~~- decent team, not top tier. second start was v. nevada~~-they are roughly 50%ile among all of d1, so not very good compared to programs packed with draftees.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Mar 7, 2009 2:58 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

this is something I could check, just not right now — I’d guess that college K rates are higher earlier in the season. pitchers who have been working out should (I would think) have an advantage — if they’re throwing at full speed (as we know SS is), a Feb game shouldn’t be different than a May game. But hitters haven’t seen much top-quality pitching over the winter, especially now that the rules are stricter regarding when teams can start spring practices.

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Mar 7, 2009 3:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

answering my own question

figured out an easy way to check for it.

I just tallied up monthly splits for all of D1 last year. Here is K/BF:

Feb – 17.9%
Mar – 16.7%
Apr – 15.7%
May – 15.5%
Jun – 16.7%

Looks to me like hitters are settling in a bit over the course of the season. Plus, as conference play starts in mid-March (it’s not the same for every conference), the level of competition is more even, so there are fewer draft prospects dominating Quinnipiac or somebody.

The June spike is probably the higher concentration of good arms, since June is almost entirely postseason play. May might be affected by that some as well — some of the weaker teams don’t play all throughout May.

Strasberg in 08, fwiw:

Feb – 21.1%
Mar – 34.9%
Apr – 58.3%
May – 29.3%

Also, cheese.

by Jeff Sackmann on Mar 7, 2009 3:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

OT: Why is Jeter starting over Rollins?

And why is Morneau in the field instead of Votto?

And That Happened: Sports with a Hint of Sarcasm

by philkid3 on Mar 7, 2009 2:43 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Because Morneau is an MVP and Jeter won a Gold Glove

vivaelbeñsheets

by vivaelpujols on Mar 7, 2009 3:32 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

does it really matter?

i mean, do we really expect that jeter is going to ride the bench at the WBC? i’m sure clubs will really want to let their players go if they’re not going to play somewhat regularly. and, jeez, of course morneau gets to choose if he wants to play in the field. it’s not like there’s a huge difference between the two of them.

southsidesox.com - now the best place on the interwebs for chicago white sox analysis and discussion.

by larry on Mar 7, 2009 3:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs