How Much Will The Yankees Miss A-Rod?
by R.J. Anderson on Mar 5, 2009 1:05 PM EST
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PrintEdit: Now there's a chance he won't have surgery for now.
As Dave Cameron stated, the Yanks (nor any of the top American League East teams really) can ill afford to have their best player(s) miss significant time in such a clustered division. Cutting to the chase, what everyone wants to know is how much Alex Rodriguez missing time is going to hurt the Yankees.
Over the last three years A-Rod has averaged ~4.3 plate appearances per game -- adjust that upwards if you think the Yankees offense is extremely improved, otherwise it seems like a decent number to use here. At the same time he's averaged about 0.32 wRAA per game using that plate appearance average. Defensively Rodriguez has averaged basically 0 runs per game, -0.03 if you want to be precise.
All we need to know is how many games he'll be out, and how his replacement stacks up. Here's a look at what the Yanks are missing with a replacement level player stepping in:
Alex Rodriguez absence filled by Replacement Level Player
| Games | Offensive | Defensive | Replace | Total | Wins AR |
| 10 | 3.2 | -0.3 | 1.4 | 4.3 | 0.43 |
| 20 | 6.4 | -0.6 | 2.9 | 8.7 | 0.87 |
| 30 | 9.6 | -0.9 | 4.3 | 13 | 1.3 |
| 40 | 12.8 | -1.2 | 5.7 | 17.3 | 1.73 |
| 50 | 16 | -1.5 | 7.2 | 21.7 | 2.17 |
This is hardly a perfect analysis, but it seems like a decent ballpark figure. Remember, that's the amount of wins Rodriguez adds, so those numbers are actually negative for the Yankees outlook. Wilson Betemit is likely giggling in southside Chicago because Cody Ransom is apparently the Yankees back-up. Ransom isn't much better than a replacement level player, so bump off maybe a half of a run from those projected totals and you have the impact felt by A-Rod's hip.
Now obviously, the Yankees could always go out and trade for a third baseman or sign someone to fake third for a month, so this could always change. Now watch the Yankees go on a 30-10 rip without Rodriguez.
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AROD
Thinking out loud here, can’t you just take (AROD’s WAR – Replacement WAR), assuming 85% seasonal playing time, which is approximately 138 games. Next, take the number of games missed by AROD and divide that by 138, then weight that number by AROD’s seasonal WAR. Do the same for his replacement and subtract AROD’s number from his replacement players number and that’s how many wins they lose.
Example:
Let’s say AROD has a WAR of 6 (plug in your own number)
and the Yankees are able to find a replacement 3B with a WAR of 1 (probably via trade, FA signing but let’s say 1 for simplicity). And let’s say AROD will miss 30 games.
AROD Loss = WAR * (30 / 138) = 1.30
Replacement Gain = WAR * (30 / 138) = 0.22
AROD Loss – Replacement Gain = 1.08
Therefore, 30 games out = 1.08 less wins.
Variables:
AROD WAR = 6
Replacement player WAR = 1
Games missed = 30
vr, Xei
Of course
it is. I don’t think I stated it was anything else. I just stated that if you replace AROD with a 1 WAR player the Yankees lose X number of wins. That 1 WAR player is ARODs replacement, not a “replacement level player”. :)
vr, Xei
Gotcha. Sorry, I really only read your first paragraph and misinterpreted what you meant by replacement.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
I don't think this can be right
because if A-Rod being out 40 games only costs them one win, that makes A-Rod a 4 WAR player, since 40 games = 1/4 of the season. But A-Rod has been worth an average of 7.8 wins the last two years, so he should cost the Yankees nearly double that.
it's not right
I think you need to use my formula above.
40 games out at AROD = 6 WAR vs a Replacement level player would be,
1.74 wins.
vr, Xei
That makes a lot more sense
Although A-Rod could be worth quite a bit more than that even. He’s been worth more than 6 wins six of the last seven years, and been worth at least 9 wins five of the last seven. The only times he wasn’t was last year because he missed a month and his “off year” in 2006.
It’s quite possible losing A-Rod for 40 games costs the Yankees nearly 2.5 wins.
by Brendan Scolari on Mar 5, 2009 2:30 PM EST up reply actions
Yes
at 9 WAR, a 40 game loss would be 2.61 wins for the Yanks vs a RLP. My gut tells me the Yanks don’t go with a RLP though.
vr, Xei
Well, Cody Ransom is the guy right now.
There’s not much left on the FA market, but I suppose they could trade for someone. I don’t think it would be smart to give up a lot to get a replacement for A-Rod for 40 games though.
by Brendan Scolari on Mar 5, 2009 3:05 PM EST up reply actions
I think RJ may have forgotten to add in the rep piece of the calculation.
What he’s done is RAA, not RAR. I’ll check with him.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
Not to be picky
But I don’t see what’s changed.
by Brendan Scolari on Mar 5, 2009 3:08 PM EST up reply actions
I added the replacement column.
Games times 4.3 (plate appearances per game) times (20/600)
by R.J. Anderson on Mar 5, 2009 3:18 PM EST up reply actions
torn labrum. that's tough.
southsidesox.com - now the best place on the interwebs for chicago white sox analysis and discussion.
by the way, your should probably say "won't have surgery now"
i suppose he could get through the season without the surgery. but he’s probably going to need to get it at some point. labrums usually don’t just heal on their own, especially for baseball purposes.
southsidesox.com - now the best place on the interwebs for chicago white sox analysis and discussion.
Further adjustment
Usign the table from the OP, they had -1.73 wins for 40 games. The Yankees play 19 of 162 games vs the Red Sox, which is 11.7. If about 11.7 of those 40 games will be against the Red Sox aren’t they also giving the Red Sox 11.7% of the 1.73 wins as well?
So, while the Yankees would lose 1.73 games in the standings, The Red Sox [and Rays] both pick up about 0.2 games, making it a net loss of very nearly 2 full wins.
Brilliant!
You might want to consider the Rays, too, or RJ will hurt you.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
With the same number of games
against all of the ALW teams, I guess you can add the 0.2 to each of them :)
Uh, do peope care about anything other than the AL East?
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
There are other divisions?
I thought those were just minor leagues.
by Dan Turkenkopf on Mar 6, 2009 5:44 PM EST up reply actions
if the yankees go with ransom, that's just stupid. they've got the wallet. spend it.
ray durham is waiting for your call, cashman.
southsidesox.com - now the best place on the interwebs for chicago white sox analysis and discussion.
Is Ray Durham any better than Ransom, considering his horrible fielding ability?
How about a mega deal for Beltre? Mora? EE?
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
well, what are we presuming regarding arod?
missing some time? lots of time? whole season? that informs the decision. at this point, i’d just sign durham for a couple million as insurance and save the prospects. they’re the yankees. if durham isn’t needed, cut him. money ain’t an issue.
and, yeah, i think durham is far better than ransom. though i suppose what it all looks like depends upon what you think of cano at third. i see no problem but who knows.
southsidesox.com - now the best place on the interwebs for chicago white sox analysis and discussion.
he's having the hip scoped now and will miss 6-9 weeks.
still will need to have a more invasive surgery after the season.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/baseball/mlb/03/08/arod.surgery.ap/index.html
southsidesox.com - now the best place on the interwebs for chicago white sox analysis and discussion.
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