TotalZone on Shortstop Prospects
by erik on Mar 31, 2009 5:00 AM EDT
29 comments
Sean Smith deserves a medal (or better yet, a donation to his site). With his help and the help of Jeff Sackmann, we now have TotalZone stats for the minor leaguers which can be found at position players' pages at Minor League Splits. For a full explanation on how useful/reliable these stats are, you can go here. I'll stick with the practicalities and take a look the top prospects at their position in order to see who shines and who might need a position switch. We'll start with shortstop.
Charted below are the top shortstop prospects in the minors, as ranked by BA. Well, it sort of is. I threw out the players with small sample sizes, which basically means no 2008 draft picks. In their place I stuck Ramiro Pena, Yankee Shortstop of the Future (TM)! and Carlos Triunfel, who they consider a second baseman now (for good reason).
| Org. | Age | Level | Outs | Chances | Runs | Runs/150 | |
| Alcides Escobar | MIL | 21 | AA | 336 | 459 | 22 | 24 |
| Elvis Andrus | TEX | 19 | AA | 295 | 429 | 2 | 2 |
| Jason Donald | PHI | 23 | AA | 143 | 256 | -19 | -37 |
| Reid Brignac | TAM | 22 | AAA | 189 | 272 | 6 | 11 |
| Justin Jackson | TOR | 19 | A | 277 | 242 | 3 | 4 |
| Chris Valaika | CIN | 22 | AA | 205 | 310 | -3 | -5 |
| Yamaico Navarro | BOS | 20 | A | 116 | 175 | 1 | 3 |
| Brandon Hicks | ATL | 22 | A+ | 193 | 296 | -3 | -5 |
| Carlos Rivero | CLE | 20 | A+ | 221 | 329 | 2 | 3 |
| Pete Kozma | STL | 20 | A | 201 | 292 | 11 | 19 |
| Brent Lillibridge | ATL | 24 | AAA | 180 | 293 | -12 | -21 |
| Ramiro Pena | NYY | 23 | AA | 211 | 319 | 1 | 2 |
| Carlos Triunfel | SEA | 18 | A+ | 108 | 215 | -20 | -47 |
- Scouts predict a gold glove in Escobar's future, and the stats agree. He rated rather poorly in '06 (-13), was better in '07 (-4) and developed into a human vacuum cleaner in '08.
- Like Escobar, Elvis Andrus also has a terrific defensive reputation, but the numbers aren't quite there yet. The Rangers think highly enough of his defense to give him a big league job and push their um, ahem...gold glove shortstop to 3B.
- Jason Donald is not a shortstop by any stretch of the imagination. The Phillies know it, as he received looks at second and third during the Arizona Fall League. There is some guy at second base named Chase Utley that I hear is pretty good, so third might be the right place for Donald, but his bat doesn't profile quite as well there.
- The 2009 Baseball America Prospect Handbook says Brignac "made impressive strides with his defense the past two years", which I guess means he cut down on making errors, because he's been a steady defender for a while now -- He's +33 over four seasons in the minors.
- Pete Kozma, a first round pick in 2007, has few fans in Cardinal Nation, mostly because his name is not Rick Porcello. The scouting reports read that Kozma had no standout tool, but I would say his glove has become that tool.
- Brent Lillibridge was part of the Javier Vasquez deal and is the favorite for the utility infielder job for the White Sox. After a stellar showing in 2006, his skills have evaporated, both at the plate and in the field.
- For some weird reason Ramiro Pena has become the darling boy of the New York media, who seem ready to anoint him as the next Yankee shortstop. He is a good defender, with Runs/150 of 21, 15 and 2 the past three seasons, but he hit for a career high .312 wOBA repeating AA last season. Jeter most assuredly should be moved to another postition, but for this guy?
- Pretty brutal year from Truinfel. Some say he's a natural shortstop. Maybe he just looks the part, I don't know. As with Donald, Triunfel played third and second in the AFL. Unlike Donald, he has plenty of time to learn his position. It's pretty amazing to think of an 18-year old playing in the AFL.
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Pena
I’m fairly sure people are just grasping for any option better than Angel Berroa, while I don’t think Pena’s more than a passablly decent utility guy, that still makes him eons better than Angel Berroa
by RollingWave on Mar 31, 2009 7:24 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
And anything that suggests moving Jeter to another position is a good thing
by Dan Turkenkopf on Mar 31, 2009 12:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm assuming people are going to need a few years to get used to the idea
So whoever they’re talking about is not going to be the actual person moving Jeter off short.
by Dan Turkenkopf on Apr 1, 2009 8:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
im prayin' like hell
that Valaika can stick at SS. he’s really the only hope the Reds have there right now.
My millions are unconventional!
by Charlie Scrabbles on Mar 31, 2009 10:41 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Zach Cozart
The glove is real. The bat will be the key, but its come a long way in the last year.
by dougdirt on Mar 31, 2009 1:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah
im still skeptical of Cozart’s bat. im willing to change though.
My millions are unconventional!
by Charlie Scrabbles on Mar 31, 2009 2:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+11/+15 per 150 G
That’s a pretty good glove.
by erik on Mar 31, 2009 3:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lillibridge getting tagged out was the most relevant photo I could find for this article.
For those who don’t read other SBN blogs, go check some out for info on new features: integrated AP photos for one. Try here.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Mar 31, 2009 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I am very skeptical of this data
In the minor leagues there is simply too many factors that make the playing field uneven. Guys who play on the best fields in the minors (specifically infielders) are going to have an easier road and likely post better numbers than the guys playing on older fields that are not maintained as well. Guys with crappy pitching staffs who get hit very hard are going to post up lower numbers than guys with good pitching staffs who don’t get hit as hard. BABIP isn’t quite the same in the minors. Heck, even the lighting in some stadiums is going to cause issues because not all stadiums are created equally. What about a strong gloved first baseman versus a guy who can’t field at first causing ‘errors’ on an infielder?
There is simply too many variables that simply can’t be accounted for with this type of system for minor leaguers. Its fun to talk about, but I don’t take it all that seriously.
by dougdirt on Mar 31, 2009 1:22 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I think like all stats
you need a large sample size. Using one year of data is essentially worthless because of the things that you mentioned, however TZ can give you a pretty good idea of how good a fielder is if they have a large sample size.
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Mar 31, 2009 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
TZ in the majors
may give us a good idea on how good of a fielder one guy is. I still have a lot of concerns when its applied to the minor leagues for all of the reasons I have noted within this page throughout my other posts.
by dougdirt on Mar 31, 2009 6:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
the numbers are relative
to the league played in, which evens things out a bit. If you’re worried about home/road splits, those are also provided on the player’s pages. as vivaelpujols said, it is better to look at three years of data or more, but some players don’t have that luxury. Take all of this with a grain of salt if you wish, as you probably should with all defensive stats, unless they pretty much are all telling you the same story.
On the link I gave, Sean explained that infielders perform worse as they move up, and outfielders stay flat or get worse. Sean even gives his MLE translations for each position in the article. That’s something else to keep in mind.
Look, I’m not saying any fielding system is perfect nor should you just go off of one season’s worth of data. Seans’ TotalZone and Dan Fox’s SFR correlate pretty well, and it is by far the best we have when it comes to minor league stats.
by erik on Mar 31, 2009 3:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
man, dude
every time there’s a discussion about minor league defensive stats, you show up with a comment like this. We get it. At this point in the evolution of sabermetrics, we all know that defensive stats have their flaws, and pbp defensive stats have more flaws. I tend to take people more seriously when they are suggesting (or better, acting on) ways to improve these things rather than just ripping them, especially when the criticisms are getting old.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Mar 31, 2009 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions 2 recs
Jeff
You don’t have to take me seriously if you don’t want to. However simply because I was not offering a better option doesn’t mean you should dismiss my thoughts on it either. Simply because one doesn’t offer a different or even better option doesn’t mean that they don’t have valid points on their concerns.
It would be a large step in the right direction if we could get someone to chart the games like in the majors with ZR. Heck, I am particularly intrigued by the stuff being done with gameday data for the majors in terms of the ball placement and since that data is available for the minors, maybe thats something that can be looked into as well (It was actaully talked about somewhere – perhaps THT article from a few weeks ago when looking at the MLB data). Basically what you are doing with the spray charts, but doing it on plays made by the defender, something like that would likely be a lot more interesting to me. Its all very primitive at this point and will likely take a lot of time to get to a point where we are getting good data.
I simply just have some concerns with this system being used in the minor leagues for something more than a starting off point for talking defense. There just are too many variables that simply aren’t accounted for in my opinion. It works much better with the majors because the level of talent is nearly even and the field conditions are as well.
As far as where sabermetrics are today, its great how far we have come with them. Sabermetrics don’t really have the same footing on minor league numbers though as they do in the majors for the most part simply because of the talent distribution, even at the same level. There are guys at levels who are just simply much better than the levels and guys who are just simply not good enough for the level. It creates a lot of weird situations that make the stats we use with Major Leaguers very flawed when we try to apply them to Minor Leaguers.
by dougdirt on Mar 31, 2009 6:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The criticisms are still valid, yet the extremely questionable data is referred to in ways that suggest that the criticisms aren’t real. Why not write in a way that reflects reality? That would be a vast improvement. I guess the question is when improvements are suggested, why are the same errors repeated.
How much of this is about you not liking someone criticize one of your entrepreneurial ventures?
by ol Pete on Apr 1, 2009 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's not an entreprenuerial venture.
I actually lose money making it available.
I’m so sorry.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Apr 1, 2009 7:59 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Something doesn’t become an entrepreneurial venture when it turns a profit. You’re also non-responsive again.
by ol Pete on Apr 2, 2009 8:20 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ok, let me clarify
I am not even attempting to make money. I am basically donating my time, skills, and a bit of money to the baseball research community.
Also, it’s not even my stat.
You stay classy. And please, oh please, don’t preach to me about being non-responsive.
Also, cheese.
by Jeff Sackmann on Apr 2, 2009 11:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why not? You frequently don’t even attempt an honest response and instead engage in personal attack or snarky condescension. Just look above at the childish “I am so sorry” remark.
Given that you claim to be a consultant to several major league teams, forgive me if I don’t believe that this is a noble enterprise for the good of humanity.
by ol Pete on Apr 3, 2009 7:58 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
There seems to be something personal going on here, or something that's carried over from another blog.
Let’s take this out of the comments and into email if there’s a real problem anyone wants discussed. Mine is listed at the bottom of the page. Thanks.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Apr 3, 2009 8:12 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Great stuff, Erik
and it gives us Cards’ fans some hope that Kozma can be, if not Porcello, then at least an above average SS. Orlando Cabrera, last year was a 3.7 WAR player simply b/c he played great defense. His wOBA was a whopping .316 and yet, b/c of the fact that he played SS and played it really well, was worth more than 3 1/2 wins.
The Cards haven’t even had a 3 win SS since Eckstein produced 3.2 in 2005. Before that, Renteria was worth 6.7 and 4.8 in 2003 and 2002. Khalil Greene, who many Cards’ fans believe is the savior, hasn’t been worth 3+ wins since 2004. This gives Cards’ fans a reason to look forward to Kozma — something, as you point out, most Cards’ fans have a hard time doing.
by chuckb on Mar 31, 2009 9:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
thanks, Chuck
Kozma is definitely underrated, IMO. He walks in 10% of his at bats and plays stellar defense. He may not crack a .400 slugging %, but if he can keep picking it, he doesn’t have to.
I meant to include Niko Vasquez, someone who Cardinal fans have more eagerly accepted. He had a great year in the Appalachian League, +7, +18 per 150
by erik on Apr 1, 2009 1:37 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think the combination of Miles and Izturis was probably worth around 3 wins last year
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Apr 3, 2009 4:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
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