Graph of the Day: Ozzie vs. Andruw Historical WAR

by Sky Kalkman on Mar 3, 2009 10:16 AM EST Comment 13 comments

Motivated by recent FanShot discussions, here are Ozzie's and Andruw's seasonal WAR totals sorted from best to worst, thanks to Rally's new WAR database that goes back to 1955 (the retrosheet era).

Andruw has the better five-year and ten-year peaks, and both guys had nine seasons at what I call All-Star level (4 WAR). At their 11th best seasons, Andruw fell off a cliff while Ozzie held on for four more above league-average.

To me, any season below 2 WAR is meaningless, and seasons in the 2-4 WAR range are barely worth noting. Over their peaks, Andruw was Ozzie's equivalent in the field -- at a slightly easier position -- but with a much better bat.

0 recs | Comment 13 comments | Share

Story-email Email Printer Print

Comments

Ozzie sure aged more gracefully, youch.

Bay City Ball | Beyond the Box Score

by xanthan on Mar 3, 2009 10:19 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Well, if Andruw can rebound and post 4 or 5 1-3 WAR seasons, his chart will suddenly look like Ozzies, with a higher peak.

Are 4 or 5 1-3 WAR seasons the difference between a HoFamer and a non HoFamer?

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Mar 3, 2009 11:01 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Are 4 or 5 1-3 WAR seasons the difference between a HoFamer and a non HoFamer?

Nah, I don’t think so. I was just commenting on the “shape” of their careers to this point. I’m in definite agreement that Andruw had the better peak years. I wonder if Jones will be around for another 4 or 5 seasons? It’s hard to guess at this point.

Bay City Ball | Beyond the Box Score

by xanthan on Mar 3, 2009 11:08 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think Ozzie has as good a chance of doing that as Druw.

Even if Andruw managed to bounce back offensively, his defense is probably on the decline anyway. The fact that we’re asking whether Andruw Jones can muster the ability to be as good as Ozzie Smith is what’s significant, to me anyway. Such a comparison would be laughable two years, maybe even one year ago. I guess that’s as much underrating Smith as assuming Jones, though.

by Daniel Berlyn on Mar 3, 2009 9:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

You've seen Andruw's historical RAR chart on this site, right?

2008 was a bit down on a per150 scale, but it was still about +12. Through 2007, he was above +20 in CF. I think it’s pretty safe to assume he’s at least +10 going forward based on simple regression. With a +2.5 bonus for CF and +20 runs for 600 PAs, he only needs to be a league average hitter to be worth 3.25 WAR. If he’s a -10 hitter, he’s still 2.25 WAR. Both those situations put him in the upper range of the 1 to 3 WAR range mentioned above to match Ozzie. Certainly not a lock, but a lot easier than most people assume.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Mar 4, 2009 11:41 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Well

if he hits as bad as he does last year, than he would be -48 BRAA over 600 PAs, and in 2007 he was -9.3 in 653 PAs. Hopefully it was just the weight talking and he has slimmed down and will have a revival in that popsicle stand in Texas, however, I really don’t see him capable of being even -10 hitter right now.

vivaelbeñsheets

by vivaelpujols on Mar 4, 2009 12:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Obviously there isn't a huge set of similar players for Andruw.

But Marcel pegs him at a .314 wOBA (neg 15 run range)
CHONE pegs him at .334 wOBA (about average)
PECOTA pegs him at .237/.326/.418 (about average) (and this one’s based off of similar players, for what that’s worth):

Most similar hitters:

Rank Hitter Year Score Trend Rank Hitter Year Score Trend
1 Tom Brunansky 1992 46 11 Eric Davis 1994 30
2 Jesse Barfield 1992 46 12 Jim Fregosi 1974 29
3 Ellis Burks 1996 42 13 Jeff Burroughs 1983 29
4 Deron Johnson 1970 38 14 Rick Monday 1978 28
5 Jermaine Dye 2006 36 15 Bobby Del Greco 1965 27
6 Preston Wilson 2006 34 16 Bobby Thomson 1956 27
7 Jim Hickman 1969 33 17 Wally Judnich 1949 27
8 Wally Westlake 1953 32 18 Candy Maldonado 1992 26
9 Dick Gernert 1960 32 19 Jose Cruz 2006 26
10 Greg Vaughn 1997 30 20 Jim Russell 1950 25

No offense to you (and I’ve typed this often), but it really means nothing that you don’t see him capable of being a -10 hitter.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Mar 4, 2009 1:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Well

we will see. I might be mistaken, but I see a clear deterioration in his skills over the last 2 years. His contact rate has dropped from bad to Dunn-ish. His O-swing has steadily increased to where he is now near the bottom of the league around guys like Ichiro and Adam Kennedy. His power has obviously dropped as well. Even in 07, his ISO was only .191 and last year it was under .100.

So right now you have Jones, who has terrible plate discipline, makes little contact and doesn’t have enough power to make up for it. Maybe he can turn it around, however he looks close to done right now.

vivaelbeñsheets

by vivaelpujols on Mar 4, 2009 3:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

“2-4 WAR range are barely worth noting”

Barely worth noting in what context? HOF debate? Value to a team? I’m not following what you mean by this.

Nice Robot

by azruavatar on Mar 3, 2009 10:28 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Hall of Fame debate.

Worth noting, but seasons that are between league average and All-Star minimum aren’t going to convince me often that a guy is or is not a HoFamer. Maybe if there are 5-10 of them they’ll carry as much weight as one or two 6+ WAR seasons.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Mar 3, 2009 10:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs