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Attempting To Prove Batting Average Is Useless In Fantasy Baseball, Too

I hate when I have to listen to other people talk about their fantasy teams.  So instead I'm going to be the one talking this time.  And hey, maybe you'll find it interesting.

I also hate batting average.  You know why.  I especially hate having to spend time thinking about batting average in my main fantasy league.  So this year I decided not to.  I decided to dump the AVG category and focus on dominating the other nine.  Here's how it worked out.

The league is a traditional 5x5, 10-team, AL-only keeper auction league with a $260 budget.  Dumping AVG is a bit tricky, because it's tied not only to RBI, but also Runs (via OBP and batting order) and playing time (managers tend to bench players with really low AVGs.)  But it's great for finding HRs and SBs on the cheap (hello, Russ Branyan).

Before getting to the auction, let me introduce my keepers.  Price in parantheses is what I had their inflated value at based on my own calculations using hand-adjusted PECOTA projections and 30% inflation.

Star-divide

  • BJ Upton $8 ($32) - I'm wishcasting a 30/30 season.  Don't spoil my party.  .267 PECOTA-projected AVG
  • Carlos Pena $6 ($18) - Big power, low AVG, cheap.  .239
  • Johnny Damon $20 ($24) - Here's a guy that doesn't fit into my strategy, meaning he's trade bait.  He also wasn't below projected value and will probably come down a bit from an over-achieving 2008 season.  .279
  • Jermaine Dye $15 ($25) - Another guy who's not a great deal, but still worth keeping.  .271
  • James Shields $6 ($30) - Quietly one of the best five AL fantasy starters.
  • Zach Greinke $2 ($22) - Is it wrong to expect another year-over-year improvement?

Going into the auction, I had a desire to grab one or two more stud starters, not waste money on top closers and instead focus on closers-in-waiting, try out a lot of low-end starters with upside, and (obviously) target low-AVG hitters below value.  Hitters first.

  • Alex Gordon $21 ($21) - I'm a sucker for top prospects who haven't yet lived up to their hype and that are actually a bit underrated.  .257
  • Mike Napoli $14 ($21) - The Angels don't like his D, but his bat is way better than Jeff Mathis'.  20 HR and 70 RBI from a catcher is huge.  .242
  • Jim Thome $13 ($16) - Ho hum.  DHs tend to go a bit on the cheap side early in this league (perhaps rightfully so), as folks like to keep their UT slot open.  .248
  • Russ Branyan $9 ($15) - I was mocked mercilessly for this one.  Someone even accused me of reading USSMariner too much (is that a bad thing?)  But he's going to be the big half of a 1B platoon, is good for 25 HRs, and throws in a handful of SBs to boot.  .237
  • Jarrod Saltalamaccia $14 ($12) - This is too high.  I had money to spend at this point in the draft and there weren't many good catcher options left that fit my low-AVG strategy.  Mistake.  .249
  • Nick Swisher $12 ($12) - I was under the assumption that Swisher was a near shoe-in to start in right field.  Evidently that's not the case.  He'll still find at-bats.  .237
  • DeWayne Wise $1 ($8) - He's probably the slight favorite to start in center for the White Sox and could be a 15/15 guy in 2/3 of a season.  .239
  • Asdrubal Cabrera $8 ($7) - Eh, I mishandled my middle infield.  Everyone good was kept and I had too much money left to settle for $1 filler. .259
  • Jason Bartlett $10 ($4) - Hey, he's a Ray, so all I see is upside.  I rationalize this one by telling myself that the projection systems don't know he was hurt last year.  .257
  • Brandon Wood $3 (-$4) - Just a flier.  If he manages to start for the Angels or gets traded, the HRs will be nice.  You bet I'll be taking another MI in the reserve rounds.  .228

And the pitchers:

  • Felix Hernandez $32 ($30) - He and Lackey were the last two stud pitchers left on the board, and I made the mistake of nominating Lackey first.  Probably not a lot of value here, but I'm hoping he ditches the all-fastballs approach and lives up to his potential by working with the new, smarter Mariners' coaches.
  • AJ Burnett $26 ($25) - With the strikeouts, wins, and solid ratios, Burnett's actually a bit underrated.  With his injury history, he's a bit of a gamble, but a solid one, as he should return positive value with 170+ IP.
  • Grant Balfour $8 ($13) - Troy Percival can't pitch and can't stay healthy.  Izzy isn't the answer, Wheeler's overrated, and Balfour's a stud.  Even without the closer role and saves, an $8 Balfour has value, and he's an exciting keeper investment.
  • John Smoltz $8 ($11) - Eh, I had some extra money to spend at this point.  Any chance he's healthy enough to throw 120 innings?
  • George Sherrill $13 ($8) - Yeah, more money to spend.  I actually don't like him over-exposed to righties, but Chris Ray isn't a lock to return healthy and effective.  I needed some saves somewhere, although he won't be in my starting lineup if he's not closing.
  • Koji Uehara $6 ($6) - Looks like he'll get a shot in the rotation, although if both Ray and Sherrill falter, he has an outside shot at closing.  The O's have a good offense and a good defense, so finding pitcher on that team with even a bit of talent is a good move.
  • Jeff Niemann $1 ($0) - Yeah, I'm infatuated with the Rays.  But for a buck, I'll take a flier on a highly touted prospect.

I'm cautiously optimistic with my team.  I definitely succeed in dumping AVG, but we'll see if I got enough of everything else.  PECOTA projects I did, but you'll always get biased results by using the projection system you drafted from.

One mistake I made, which I've made for a couple years now (that's the definition of insanity, I hear), was avoiding spending money early.  The league as whole spent more money than I anticipated both early in the draft and on the high-priced players.  So while there are big deals later, spending $100 on single-digit players just isn't feasible.  I needed to "waste" a few more bucks on one or two top-line players in order not to waste even more money later in the auction.

How'd I do?  Do you think it's feasible to win by dumping average?  Anybody I should target in trades?  Feel free to use the comments for general strategy discussion about fantasy baseball.

Poll
If things lean your way in your most important fantasy league, where do you expect to finish?
Underneath the Yoo-hoo, baby!
29 votes
In the money, albeit the small money.
16 votes
Top half, not that it's worth anything
11 votes
Bottom half. I'm, uh, rebuilding.
5 votes
I have no chance, no chance at all.
3 votes

64 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  Comment 16 comments |

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I have persued a similar strategy in the past...

and it worked out pretty well. I got a couple of all-rounders with my first picks (Utley, Beltran) and then just focused on power hitters to fill out the rest of my lineup and ended up pretty well. I finished 10th in AVG, if I recall, and the only reason I didn’t finish in the bottom was the two aformentioned guys plus McCann.

by BraveBronco0121 on Mar 25, 2009 5:24 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I have no chance...

because I’d rather obsess over the Sox roster.

by bs.uf15bosox9bears23 on Mar 25, 2009 6:33 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

For Auction Drafts I would would not go in without reading Shandler's Book

It is the best book/resource for auction drafts. With auction, I usually go in with a couple of strategies that can be changed easily. I have found that definite closers (e.g. Soria, Rivera) are going relatively cheap to their actual value now a day. There is always areas that are over priced and under priced and it is best to keep track of what is going for what and if you need to throw out a position that has yet to be drafted.

by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Mar 25, 2009 6:41 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Not sure...

Not sure I can buy into “dump BA” as a successful strategy.

As you note, BA correlates to R and RBI.
Unlike Saves or SBs (the traditionally dumped categories), I honestly don’t think it’s possible to dump BA without hurting other categories significantly.

I mean, I assume you dislike ERA as much as BA (as another one of the “old school” stats, that’s not particularly reflective of value). And it’s tough for me to imagine a “Dump ERA” strategy working, can you? (it would seem to correlate waaaay too much to Ws and WHIP)

More than anything, I think we have a difference of opinion on several players (Branyan, Sherrill, Burnett, etc).

And as always, I still think getting lucky ends up being more valuable over the course of a season than getting good “value” on players. (That is, you’ll win the league because Burnett stays injury free or Swisher gets traded to a team that’ll give him ABs is more than because you got Mike Napoli for $7 less than you would have paid)

by BigGreenFrank on Mar 25, 2009 6:57 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

We don't differ on opinion on Sherrill.

I see your point about the relatedness of categories, but I think ERA is way more related to other pitching skills than AVG is to RBI and others. Not sure it’s a great strategy, still, but it sure was fun.

And I agree with you about mid-season pickups and luck.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Mar 25, 2009 7:40 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree about in-season management being important

Look at your roster at the end of any season and compare it to the team you drafted. In almost all cases of winning teams I bet there are some significant roster differences. Whether you are able to improve your team through free-agent pickups or trades or whatnot, there is always room for improvement or recovery from job status changes, injuries, poor performance, etc. Since the comments are for strategy, one thing I think most of the people in this keeper league (yes, I’m in it too) don’t fully grasp is the value of drafting those prospects that people love to read and write about over the winter even if you don’t expect them to play this year. That cheap Beckham or LaPorta or Feliz or Gamel you draft may actually be half a season of Mark Teixeira or Grady Sizemore if you play your cards right. I draft to win every year, but as part of that I draft to be in a position to improve my roster, by a) leaving some spots that offer clear areas for improvement (not quite stars and scrubs, but you get the idea) and b) getting some players I know people will be interested in as keepers for trade bait.

BigGreenFrank and I were discussing this earlier, but I think there isn’t enough of a premium placed on reliability in fantasy. I’d way rather draft a guy who’s projected value is $30 with a probability standard deviation of like $5 than the high-ceiling guy who maybe is “projected” to be worth $35 but with a reasonable chance of that being +/- $15. Mid-season you can then target the guys who are performing well. Now just don’t ask me why I drafted Rick Porcello and Travis Snider.

Also, Sky, if Dewayne Wise goes 15/15 you get a bag of chips with your sandwich. A cookie if Burnett turns a profit.

by Sliderule on Mar 25, 2009 7:56 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Projections

According to my (admittedly notoriously inaccurate) projections for the league, your strategy involves not only dumping AVG (last) but also Runs (last), RBIs (9th), and perhaps unrelatedly, Saves (last). So, at first glance there seem to be some problems.

by Sliderule on Mar 25, 2009 8:03 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree I'm sketchy on saves.

I don’t get the runs and RBI thing, though. Guess it depends a lot on playing time from some guys – Branyan, Wise, and Salty especially might have differing opinions.

On a different topic, I feel like my best skill as a fantasy player has nothing to do with strategy, I’m merely ok at that. But I think I’m really good at avoiding disasters. Matsuzaka went for $30, and I wasn’t touching that. I know to avoid players after their breakout season. So I don’t always find great breakout players (on purpose) but I think I’m good at avoiding busts (ignoring late round and $3 fliers).

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Mar 25, 2009 8:15 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Branyan

“is good for 25 HRs and throws in a handful of SBs to boot”

Are you sure you’re thinking of the right Russell Branyan?
I understand that he had a dozen HRs in only 125 ABs last year, but his HRs per 350 ABs in the previous 4 years is in the 20 range. And, of course, this is assuming that he gets those 350 ABs and can continue that pace.

Could he hit 25? I guess, but Marcus Thames actually hit 25 in 300 ABs last year and no one wanted him. (maybe that was a mistake… your first reserve pick?)

And the SB thing is wrong. He has 11 SBs in his career… if by a handful, you mean 1 or 2, I guess there’s some value there…

As a Mariner fan, I’d love to be proven wrong. For a generally weak hitting team, a 25 HR platoon 1B would be awesome. But I’m not expecting great things from the guy.

Full disclosure: As it might be guessed from some of the comments, I’m in this league with Sky.

by BigGreenFrank on Mar 25, 2009 7:22 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Nice Sky

After fruitlessly spending time trying to make up ground in AVG last season, I decided to largely ignore it in my draft. I’ve got a bunch of dudes projected to reach double digits in HR and SB, so I think I’ll be OK with runs and RBIs.

I'm starting to like our bullpen......Wuertz and all.

by scatterbrian on Mar 25, 2009 8:21 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

While I don't dump average in my roto leagues

I find it useful in match-up formats. You might find this article interesting, if you play any h2h:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/category-influence/

King of the bling come to lay down the evidence//Not George Bush, L-Millz be da president

by Sam Page on Mar 25, 2009 9:00 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

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