Shawn Estes and the Dodgers' LOOGY Experiment

by Harry Pavlidis on Mar 25, 2009 12:17 AM EDT

Shawn Estes accepted an assignment to the Dodger's minor league camp, where he will attempt a conversion

"I'm going over there to pitch out of the bullpen," said Estes. "I'll pitch [on Tuesday], probably pitch on back-to-back days, then come back to the Major League club for the last week. I kind of like it; I'm kind of excited. It could be a new phase of my career."

Estes got his work today, and Rotoinfo had this note:

Shawn Estes, on a crash course to become a situational left-hander, relieved Schmidt and allowed two unearned runs on one hit in one inning.

Hmm, not a lot to go on. I'll speculate instead. Using PITCHf/x, of course.

Estes seems like an unlikely reliever. A junkball lefty, Estes is mostly a sinker "and the rest" pitcher. His cutter did make a comeback in 2008, during his second stint with the Padres.

	#	mph	pfx_x	pfx_z	deg	rpm
Change-Up (CH)	102	83.3	6.8	7.0	135.5	1,188.0
Curveball (CU)	73	73.5	-2.6	-5.5	153.1	648.8
Sinker (F2)	426	89.7	8.4	7.3	130.0	1,426.8
Fastball (F4)	96	89.9	5.6	10.0	149.6	1,464.5
Cutter (FC)	16	85.8	2.9	7.0	157.1	938.1

These three graphs break down Estes' pitch selection by start - the last two are split by LHH/RHH.

I broke the lines so you can easily see the May vs. September games. The #'s in parantheses are the total # of pitches for that date. In the next two charts, that number, and the rates, are isolated by batter hand.

The LHH pitch counts range from 2 to 49, so these percentages are dicey.

The cutter, rarely used, was oddly effective - it seemed to fool hitters quite a bit. More on that in a bit.

Estes labored in 2008, falling behind hitters on over half their plate appearances (54%). Not exactly a great characteristic for a relief pitcher. The problem was there for all of his pitches - except the cutter. Of which there were just 16, and only 4 thrown on a 0-0 count.

OK, so Estes fails one test, IMO - he falls behind too many hitters, both right- and left-handed (although the distribution across pitches is different). Fine, but does he have an out pitch? His 50% GB rate isn't enough to get me excited - he needs to miss some bats, especially since he tends to fall behind.

Starting with righties, here are swing and whiff rates for Estes in 2008, by pitch type:

The curveball gets observed a lot, but sports the best whiff rate. Estes' change also does well. Neither are spectacular, but both are solid.

That lefty-vs-lefty change-up is effective. I'll give him that.

Here's what Estes will go to on two-strike counts:

RHH	Ball	Strike	Change	Curve	Sinker	Fastball	Cutter
20	0	2	0.100	0.000	0.700	0.200	0.000
33	1	2	0.061	0.394	0.333	0.152	0.061
37	2	2	0.162	0.108	0.568	0.135	0.027
27	3	2	0.148	0.037	0.741	0.037	0.037

LHH	Ball	Strike	Change	Curve	Sinker	Fastball	Cutter
9	0	2	0.111	0.333	0.556	0.000	0.000
15	1	2	0.067	0.200	0.733	0.000	0.000
15	2	2	0.133	0.067	0.733	0.067	0.000
7	3	2	0.286	0.000	0.714	0.000	0.000

Why no 0-2 curves to righties? Seems to break a pattern. I should also note, there don't appear to be any actual 3rd strike change-ups to lefties by Estes in 2008, just to righties. Is that really an out pitch?

So, Estes as a LOOGY. I'm not so sure. He's not someone you want to bring in with the bases jacked, that's for sure. Maybe long relief, but a situational specialist sounds like a stretch.

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" I should also note, there don't appear to be any actual 3rd strike change-ups to lefties by Estes in 2008, just to righties."

Changeups are rarely thrown to same-handed players. So righty pitchers hardly ever throw changeups to righty hitters and lefty pitchers rarely throw changeups to lefty hitters.

Its tougher to catch up to a same handed pitcher as a hitter so throwing a changeup just makes it easier for the hitter. Where normally they may be late on a fastball with a changeup their bat is able to catch up. Also changeups break into same handed hitters, but an effective off-speed pitch breaks away from the hitter you’re facing. This is why sliders are more effective against same handed hitters and why pitchers with screwballs usually thow left-handed, that way the can use their breaking ball against righties. The exception is cutters, which are supposed to jam the hitter and this is best accomplished off of an opposite-handed hitter. That’s why Mariano Rivera is actually better versus lefties than righties.

by Brendan Scolari on Mar 25, 2009 3:32 AM EDT reply actions

Generally, yes, but look closely

Estes is an exception – he throws plenty of changes to lefties, they’re just not effective in getting them out on strike 2.

by Harry Pavlidis on Mar 25, 2009 8:29 AM EDT up reply actions

Haha

My bad then. I just basically skimmed through and didn’t really look to closely at the graphs. Too much stuff about Shawn Estes.

Very nice article though.

by Brendan Scolari on Mar 25, 2009 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions

That cutter looks like he should get it out into the open,

but do the groupings suggest that he might not even be intentionally throwing a cutter? That percentage use seems low even for a show-me pitch.

Space.

It's a problem we face.

So we never go anywhere.

We just stay in one place.

by hazel on Mar 25, 2009 7:20 AM EDT reply actions

Very good question

I wasn’t sure – they’re inconsistent, BIS think he threw 0 in 2008. But, I did some Googling, and Mike Fast also picked up a few cutters – he found 1 more than I did in 1 particular game.

by Harry Pavlidis on Mar 25, 2009 8:31 AM EDT up reply actions