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Spring Battles: Nick Swisher vs. Xavier Nady

Let me preface this post by presenting one reason the Yankees get so much press: they have so many good players and have more high-profile decisions to make.  When you're the biggest player on the free agent market, your team is involved in the discussion for any free agent.  When you have a team full of superstars, your team is involved any time one of them is in the news.  And when you have competition for an outfield spot between two players that many other teams would easily slide into their starting lineup, well, it's interesting.  I get as sick of talking about the Yankees as anybody, but stating that the media has a Yankee bias is missing part of the point.

That being said, Joe Girardi -- and perhaps brian Cashman -- has a decision to make about the Yankees starting right fielder for 2009.  Both options are solid, but let's take a look at what the data has to say about Xavier Nady vs. Nick Swisher.

Offense

Nady obviously had the better 2008 season, especially looking at the traditional stats, and 2008 is all we tend to remember. He hit .305 with 27 homeruns and 97 RBI compared to a .219 average for Swisher with 24 homeruns and only 64 RBI.  Nady also holds the edge in the OBP/SLG department, .357/.510 vs .332/.410.  Swisher was still nearly a league-average hitter, however, even with his awful average, at just two runs below average.  Nady was quite good, at +23 runs.

Looking purely at 2008 data to projected 2009 performance is short-sighted, though.  A good projection takes into account at least three years of past data, weighting recent performance more heavily.  CHONE's a good system and sees 2008 going like this:

Swisher: .247/.360/.454, +13 runs per 150
Nady: .273/.327/.456, +3 runs per 150

2008 was the outlier for both players, which is a better talking point for Swisher (+21, +18, -2 wRAA from 2006 to 2008) than Nady (+2, +6, +23).  CHONE gives Swisher a one win edge on offense, which is significant.  Let's move on to...

Defense

Swisher's the only guy with a defensive reputation, and it's not a good one.  Heck, just ask White Sox fans how they felt about his range in center field last year.  But the good news is that right field is a lot easier to play than center field, and UZR actually doesn't think his 2008 performance was completely incompetent, pegging his play at -11 runs per 150 games, about the same rating he earned the year before with Oakland.  Giving him the ten run bump for switching to a corner spot would make him an average right fielder.  From his time spent in corner spots throughout his career, he rates as +8 runs there.  What might be do for a projection?  Something in the +5 run range seems ok, maybe a bit lower

As for Nady, he's spent the large majority of his time in the outfield in right field, posting a career -1 runs per 150 UZR.  His 100 innings in left put him at +2 runs per 150 and his time in center field, well, has been awful.  A projection?  Average seems pretty obvious.  Again, Swisher holds, an edge, but it's probably no more than half a win.

Overall

Let's see, Swisher projects to be ten runs better with the bat and half that in the field.  That's approximately a win and a half the Yankees could gain in the standings by starting Swisher over Nady.  Seems like a no-brainer, right?  Of course, Nady seems to have the inside track on the job.

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well, this is a dead horse among white sox fans.

but there is a strong contingent that insists there was something wrong with swisher last year other than just the usual bad luck excuse offered. so maybe there is something brainier than just babip etc. going on. i know i’m interested to see how he plays this year.

by larry on Mar 25, 2009 2:21 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

What interests me the most is that they traded for Swisher this off-season.

So the Yanks obviously see potential for rebound and/or his ability to field his position. And yet they don’t see those things with Nady, apparently.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Mar 25, 2009 2:38 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

i don't think you need to expect much of a rebound if you're giving up the garbage the white sox got.

seemed pretty clear that swisher was insurance in case texeira wasn’t signed (obviously his versatility was ideal for a pre-emptive move like that).

by larry on Mar 25, 2009 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oh yeah, forgot Tex wasn't sign by that point.

Swish is much more valuable as a corner outfielder anyway.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Mar 25, 2009 2:45 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

definitely.

i’d also note that the yankees were (supposedly) actively shopping swisher this offseason after the signing of tex. maybe nady, too, i can’t remember how much smoke there was regarding that guy.

by larry on Mar 25, 2009 2:58 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'd be interested in the comparison

of a platoon w/ Swisher playing against righties and Nady playing against lefties. Wouldn’t a platoon of both be a better rightfielder than either of them individually?

by chuckb on Mar 25, 2009 4:01 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

marginally.

swisher hits about as well as nady against lefties.

by larry on Mar 25, 2009 4:05 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, Swisher is a switch hitter, so it may or may not matter.

If you’re going to start Swisher, it’s definitely worth giving him his days off against a lefty, which maximizes Nady’s backup value.

If they’re the same against lefties, it’s even worth keeping Swisher in the lineup for his glove, with the days off caveat.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Mar 25, 2009 4:26 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

if i recall correctly, melky is not so good against lefties.

could shift swisher over to center on those days – not sure what the difference in defense is and whether his offense more than covers the deficiency. or how gardner would play into that, too.

by larry on Mar 25, 2009 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

If only someone had addrressed this in details

a few weeks ago. Sigh.

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary to Driveline Mechanics and elsewhere since sometime in 2008.

by devil_fingers on Mar 25, 2009 10:20 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

(and if that someone could type)

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary to Driveline Mechanics and elsewhere since sometime in 2008.

by devil_fingers on Mar 25, 2009 10:21 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

yes, I felt pretty stupid after I realized Dave had already done it

which is why I linked it in the article

But thanks for the police work

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary to Driveline Mechanics and elsewhere since sometime in 2008.

by devil_fingers on Mar 25, 2009 11:22 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

no, I'm sorry (and confused)

my first comment (here) was meant to be sort of dumb and funny, but in retrospect, I can see how it coud see to be stupidly and wrongly “territorial” or something.

I guess I didn’t remember (“misremembered?”). I’m remembering the whole thought process behind the my own post and thinking of it, putting it down, then putting one together on the fly or something, but it’s not worth reconstructing here.

I apologize for my inadvertantly snippy tone.

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary to Driveline Mechanics and elsewhere since sometime in 2008.

by devil_fingers on Mar 26, 2009 12:15 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

well, it was embarrassing on my part, So at least someone enjoyoed it

I really to try not to be a $#@!, but sometimes it seeps through. Then I got worried that people were going to think that I was trying to claim the “Swisher>NAdy” thing for myself, which would be so stupid, and then that people would think I was trying to pull a “fast one” with the dates and stuff, which if true wouuld be even stupider…

sigh. Instead of going for a lame laugh, I should have just said, “My thoughts here.”

Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary to Driveline Mechanics and elsewhere since sometime in 2008.

by devil_fingers on Mar 26, 2009 11:21 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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