Curt Schilling WAR
by philkid3 on Mar 24, 2009 4:39 PM EDT
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PrintI made this a FanPost so I could have a poll.
This is pretty simple stuff. A while ago, I put Dave Cameron's explanation on how to convert FIP in to WAR in to Excel so I could fool with it now and then, and I did it for Curt Schilling today. Complete with park adjustments and (and also one form including offense). This is just plain ol' FIP, so it's not perfect, but it should form a pretty good view of Schilling's career.
First off (without offense), his WAR lines (rounding for some totals).
Career: 82.9
8+ Seasons: 3
6+ Seasons: 5
4+ Seasons: 12
2+ Seasons: 16/18 (Qualifying)
5 Year Peak Average: 6.7
10 Year Peak Average: 6.3
Top Three Season Average: 9.1
WAR per 200 IP: 5.9
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What did you use for replacement-level pitcher hitting?
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
I just grabbed the RAR from Sean Smith's stuff.
Wasn’t actually sure if that was correct so I only included that on the graph, not in any of the numbers.
At first I used wRAA, but I also wasn’t sure if it was right to use average since the replacement adjustment is already in the pitching or not. What makes sense?
I'm not really sure, which is why I asked.
Let’s say pitchers hit .175 (making that up). I think rep level pitcher hitting is something like .160 (pretty close to average). So you do (pitcher – .160) * AB. Of course you’d use wOBA and PAs instead.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
The shattered mine.
I figured him as a borderline guy, but one I’d put in for the “fame” thing; i.e. post season performances.
I think I was underrating him. . .
After looking at this, we may be underrating starters in general.
The average pitcher is on par to the average hitter per season. Top pitchers are on par with (non Bonds/Williams/Ruth) top hitters per season. Now, pitchers are more flukey and tend to have shorter careers (I think, that might not be true), so you probably have fewer HoF worth starters than position players, but it might be something like 75%. What’s the actual ratio in the HoF?
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
I was actually going to make a graph on Schilling v. Randy Johnson career.
Had one earlier, but I didn’t like the format. Long story short: both are really good.
I think everyone knew Johnson was.
But most people are going to be shocked by Schilling’s greatness.
I said most.
But he’s prolly surprised too – he thought he won 162 games for his team each year. Clearly, this metric underrates his grittiness.
I always thought he was an overrated pitcher who had a few good/great seasons
until I looked at his career K/BB ratio and K/9, which are 4.38 and 8.6, respectively. Granted, he gave up a good many homers considering his innings-pitched total, but when you strike out such a high number of guys for such a long time…that makes you HoF-worthy, in my opinion.
And that's what I mean.
I would figure even before looking at the numbers he’d be getting more “yes” votes.
I kinda think the opposite...
Without the numbers, I think alot of people view him as borderline at best— with the numbers he is clearly is.
If I hadn’t been involved in the 400+ post thread on Neyer’s blog, I probably would have voted no, and was suprised that he came out above ~50%. Granted, with the audience typical to this website, I’m sure many of the voters had already seen a reasonable amount of HoF evidence before voting.
I would've voted no in that case
but, he went from border-line to in once I did. Can some one cook this for Bert Blyleven?
by Harry Pavlidis on Mar 25, 2009 12:29 PM EDT up reply actions
I voted yes before reading the article
But grudgingly because as a Yankees fan I’m contractually obligated to hate Schilling.
I think he deserves it, but I’m not sure he’s a slam dunk (my Hall tends to be a little on the small side).
He’s better than Brown and Moose (as much as it pains me to say it), but I’d take Smoltz over Schilling.
And of course Clemens, Maddux, Pedro, Randy, (gap), Glavine go in before either of them.
by Dan Turkenkopf on Mar 25, 2009 8:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Andy Pettitte
I don’t expect Pettitte’s numbers to be as good as Schilling’s. Pettitte doesn’t have the strikeout numbers of Schilling, but Pettitte’s won a similar amount of games and had some postseason success. He would be the first pitcher to whom I would compare Schilling.
"The big possums walk late." - Harry Caray
In terms of wins and post-season success, ok.
In terms of peripherals (“how they got it done”), Schilling was a high-K, very low-BB, moderate-HR guy. He threw strikes and strikes that were tough to hit, keeping runners off the bases, which was necessary with all the homeruns he gave up. Pettitte was a moderate-K, good-BB, good-HR guy. He allowed a lot more baserunners (1.36 WHIP vs. 1.14 for Schilling) but would give up fewer homeruns.
Schilling was also better overall, with a FIP of half a run lower and 500 additional innings.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
Pettitte: Really Iffy HoF'er
I like Schilling’s HoF chances a lot better than Pettitte’s. Schilling isn’t exactly a slam dunk. I think Pettitte needs to do this season what Mike Mussina did last season.to merit any serious consideration for the Hall. Pedro was so incredibly good in his prime that I think he’ll make the Hall without much trouble. His 1997 and 1999 seasons with WHIP’s under 1.00 and over 300 strikeouts were amazing. The win totals currently go:
Schilling – 216
Pettitte – 215
Pedro – 214
"The big possums walk late." - Harry Caray
Those points of data do make a beautiful line
by BraveBronco0121 on Mar 24, 2009 9:22 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
great job
I was going to do something like this, now I don’t have to…
Although if I can ever figure out how to get Patriot’s park factors into MySQL without retyping them all, look out…
Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary to Driveline Mechanics and elsewhere since sometime in 2008.
Roger Clemens isn't a Hall ofFamer.
Because neither is David Wells.
by R.J. Anderson on Mar 24, 2009 11:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Note: There's a pretty insignificant error on the graph.
His offense in 2004 is called 9 runs worse than it should be, his 2000 season called 4 runs better than it should be, his ’01 season called 9 runs better than it should be and his ’02 season called 4 runs worse than it should be.
That really doesn’t make a whole lot of difference for the graph, but SBN doesn’t seem to want to let me fix it right now.
Coolness
My guy reaction when he announced retirement was that he probably deserved HOF. I’ve heard more than one talking head bring up the whole “only renowned because of bloody sock/other famous stuff” argument, which had me baffled. Post season greatness is fun and all but it’s not like he only showed up in October and mailed it in the other six months of the year. Schilling was really, really good. If anything the bloody sock might hurt him in the end, because that will be seen as his greatest asset by some, not to mention the Randy Johnson comparisons.
Ugh. "guy reaction" should be "gut reaction"
I promise I don’t have a secret man-crush or something. Ew.
Makes sense
He was terribly underrated while he played in Philadelphia; he only really came into the limelight during the Diamondbacks during the ’01 season, so most people are going to think of him as being consistent for less than a decade.
The moment I heard he was retiring, I thought sure-fire HoFer. The man jaws with the best of ‘em, but he’s definitely deserving based on performance.
I think
he’s probably a lock, given how he should statisfy both the stats guys (like this article) and the old-schooler (ZOMG THE BLOODY SOX!)
This actually surprises me to hear.
The reason is that when I was young, before I followed baseball more than knowing the names of Texas Rangers players and a few other guys, Curt Schilling was one of the few non-Texas baseball players I knew. I remember my dad talking about him as the only reason to watch the Phillies. So I’m a little surprised to find out he was so underrated.
Though I also knew Lenny Dykstra even though he retired a couple years before I really got in to the league, so maybe it was just a Phillies thing. I knew Mike Lieberthal, too. Hm.
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