Rookies of the Year by WAR

by Dan Turkenkopf on Mar 23, 2009 7:02 PM EDT

I'm in the process of doing a longer look at Rookies of the Year by WAR, but I thought I'd share some interesting things I found while collecting the data.

All data courtesy of BaseballProjection.

Update: I missed a few of the top seasons

Top 5 ROTY Seasons

Player	Year	League	WAR
Dick Allen	1964	NL	8.9
Ichiro Suzuki	2001	AL	7.9
Fred Lynn	1975	AL	7
Albert Pujols	2001	NL	7
Carlton Fisk	1972	AL	6.8

I know all about his issues (both injury and personality), but man, Dick Allen was a special talent.

Bottom 5 ROTY Seasons

Player	Year	League	WAR
Ken Hubbs	1962	NL	-1
Albie Pearson	1958	AL	0
Eric Karros	1992	NL	0
Chris Chambliss	1971	AL	0.1
Tommy Helms	1966	NL	1

Ken Hubbs was supposed to be an amazing fielder (although Total Zone disagrees) but I can't believe the ROTY went to some one who hit .260 with 5 home runs (and a .299 OBP and a 70 OPS+ for those more sabermetrically inclined).

Best 5 Seasons by a ROTY Winner

Player	Year	WAR
Rod Carew	1977	11.2
Albert Pujols	2003	11.1
Cal Ripken	1991	10.8
Albert Pujols*	2008	10
Scott Rolen*	2004	9.5
Cal Ripken	1984	9.4
Johnny Bench	1972	9.3

* omissions from my original list

It's easy to forget with the streak and a bunch of eh seasons (for an inner circle HOFer) but Ripken turned in two amazing seasons, 7 years apart.

Worst 5 Seasons by a ROTY Winner

Player	Year	WAR
Lou Pinella	1973	-3
Tommy Helms	1970	-2.7
Alfredo Griffin	1990	-2.5
Alfredo Griffin	1984	-2.1
Lou Pinella	1975	-2.1

I can't believe managers kept running Pinella and Griffin out there. Although Pinella did manage to sandwich a 2.9 WAR season in the middle of the two stinkers. And Griffin's two bad ones were 6 years apart.

More detailed analysis to come...

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Comments

Alfredo - the anti-Ripken?

Looking forward to the full post.

by Harry Pavlidis on Mar 23, 2009 7:49 PM EDT reply actions

Pat Listash?

Curious to see some WAR data here…

by mrjavascript on Mar 23, 2009 8:26 PM EDT reply actions

Listach had a great year when he won...

4.6 WAR

And then declined really quickly.
1.5
0.2
-0.4
-1.2
-1.3

by Dan Turkenkopf on Mar 23, 2009 8:31 PM EDT up reply actions

Mmm, sausage posts.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Mar 23, 2009 10:08 PM EDT reply actions

There's a category, Dan

sausage. I don’t think we have one in the drop-down for that.

by Harry Pavlidis on Mar 23, 2009 10:17 PM EDT up reply actions

Maybe we need to re-do the categories...

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Mar 23, 2009 10:31 PM EDT up reply actions

Albert had a WAR of 10 last season, right above the Cal's 1984 season

by thoran85 on Mar 23, 2009 10:46 PM EDT reply actions

Scott Rolen in 2004 had a season of 9.5 WAR (ROY '97)

by thoran85 on Mar 23, 2009 10:54 PM EDT up reply actions

Willie Mays had a few good seasons that might make that top 5 list: (ROY 1951)

His top WAR seasons post-1955:
10.9 (‘65)
10.8 (’62)
10.5 (‘58)
10.3 (’64)
10.2 (‘63)
9.6 (’60)
9.6 (‘61)
9.5 (’55)

I certainly don’t want to be a jerk, but this took me like 15mins to find these seasons that would rank in the top 5 all time for ROY winners for WAR since 1955

by thoran85 on Mar 23, 2009 11:03 PM EDT up reply actions

Mays wasn't a ROY after 1955

Which was my cutoff for this since I’m mostly curious about how ROTY winners do in subsequent seasons.

But you’re right, I missed Rolen and Pujols. I must have missed sorting by a player’s 8th season (don’t ask).

I’ll update the list. Thanks.

by Dan Turkenkopf on Mar 24, 2009 8:05 AM EDT up reply actions

That's cool, I just figured you would take all the ROY since the award started in '47 and were only using data since '55 (the earliest year of the WAR data)

by thoran85 on Mar 24, 2009 8:56 AM EDT up reply actions

ROY with negative WAR

Ken Hubbs jumped out at me… the only ROY with negative WAR. I checked the voting that year. Turns out, he took 19 of 20 first place votes. The only other vote went to Donn Clendenon. Clendenon accrued 1.8 WAR in his 249 PAs (Hubbs had 699 PAs).

Hubbs actually “rebounded” to have a 0.5 WAR season in 1963. Sadly, Hubbs (who was the first rookie to win a Gold Glove) died in a plane crash before the 1964 season.

by adarowski on Mar 24, 2009 9:00 PM EDT reply actions