Optimizing A Lineup: Red Sox

by Sky Kalkman on Mar 20, 2009 2:00 PM EDT

Continuing with the idea of optimizing lineups, here's how I'd tackle the Red Sox batting order, given these projected starters:

Player	R150	AVG	OBP	SLG
David Ortiz	44	.284	.401	.555
Kevin Youkilis	21	.286	.388	.474
J.D. Drew	17	.267	.383	.448
Jason Bay	17	.267	.364	.472
Dustin Pedroia	13	.311	.376	.464
Mike Lowell	-1	.272	.335	.434
Jacoby Ellsbury	-1	.297	.354	.425
Jed Lowrie	-7	.262	.345	.407
Jason Varitek	-10	.228	.326	.381

The three best hitters are Big Papi and two out of Youkilis, Drew, Bay, and Pedroia. Papi's got huge power and is a sloth, so he bats fourth. Youkilis has a slight edge over the other three guys in production and projects to have the highest OBP, so he bats second. Who should lead off? Well, Bay's a big homerun guy, so he's out. Both Drew and Pedroia are solid options, but given that Drew projects to have a higher OBP and a lower SLG, he's the guy. For now the lineup is Drew -- Youk -- XXX -- Ortiz.

The next two best hitters are Bay and Pedroia. This one's easy, as Bay hits homeruns and Pedroia's a base-stealing threat -- Bay goes third with Pedroia fifth. Another benefit of putting Drew at the top of the order instead of either third or fifth is that he and Ortiz are separated by a righty. The top five are: Drew -- Youk -- Bay -- Ortiz -- Pedroia.

Ellsbury and Lowell project to be equally productive, with Ellsbury more OBP-friendly and Lowell having more power. I'd prefer to have Lowell after Ellsbury, I think, although he might be needed in the sixth spot to drive home Big Papi -- it's tough to know for sure. Then we round out the lineup with Lowrie and Varitek. Varitek doesn't project to be bad enough to make it worth batting him eighth, like a pitcher. The end result against righties:

Drew
Youkilis
Bay
Ortiz
Pedroia
Ellsbury
Lowell
Lowrie
Varitek

From my moderate knowledge of what's going on in Boston, that lineup is not very likely to be seen in a regular season game, the biggest mistake being Ellsbury at the top of the lineup, when he doesn't even project to be an above-average hitter. Whatever lineup they go with, a weighted total puts them in the +110 runs above average range.

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Comments

Does it really matter with these guys?

They could bat a pitcher first and still score nearly 900.

Go away! Guys, you're gonna wake up my Mom!

by David Howards Legacy on Mar 20, 2009 4:16 PM EDT reply actions

Yay!

For the sake of establishing how badly f’d up the OTM fan vote got:
   1. Jacoby Ellsbury (NO – we even had a backlash post with only JD as an option)
   2. Dustin Pedroia (He defies stats – see commercial)
   3. David Ortiz (He’s said he’s most comfortable there)
   4. Kevin Youkilis (Eh)
   5. Jason Bay (Prolly should be higher than Youk)
   6. J.D. Drew (Should be leadoff. No question.)
   7. Mike Lowell (About right)
   8. Jason Varitek (This was supposed to be w/ another catcher in platoon)
   9. Jed Lowrie (Before the Lugo injury that nixed the platoon which prolly dragged him down in votes)

And Lowrie’s name is typo’d in the post. His name isn’t very keyboard friendly.

WBULTV - BDale TV Prod

by bdalebs on Mar 20, 2009 5:38 PM EDT up reply actions

I'd swap Drew and Pedrioa

“The lead-off hitter is one of the best three hitters on the team, the guy without homerun power.”
“After positions #1, #2, and #4 are filled, put your next best hitter here (#5), unless he lives and dies with the long ball.”

They’re pretty comparable in the OBP department, but while Pedroia projects to have the higher SLG, Drew projects to have the higher ISO.

I'm starting to like our bullpen......Wuertz and all.

by scatterbrian on Mar 20, 2009 6:53 PM EDT reply actions

Drew walks a lot more often, which is more useful in a leadoff spot, too.

And while he hits homeruns, it’s not a ton. Pedroia’s a doubles machine and base stealing threat, which is more useful in front of singles hitters lower in the lineup.

You may be right, I’m just pointing out the other side of things. Plus, if Papi’s fourth, you don’t want him and Drew back to back.

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Mar 21, 2009 12:17 PM EDT up reply actions

I guess I just like the idea of Pedroia banging balls off the Monster

but really, it’s probably harder to come up with a bad lineup than is to make a good lineup…..

I'm starting to like our bullpen......Wuertz and all.

by scatterbrian on Mar 21, 2009 5:41 PM EDT up reply actions

drew

has had outstanding plate discipline since the day he debuted. he has his strike zone and won’t budge off of it. a .392 career obp and .408 from 2008! like the choice, a lot.

by ball in play on Mar 20, 2009 7:03 PM EDT reply actions

Hey Sky...

I wrote a fanpost over on McCovey Chronicles about optimizing the Giants line-up using The Book. It was a rough go as the Giants have a lot of similar types in the lineup and the chone projections seem off. (like how Sandoval is the worst hitter by far)

I was wondering if you would like to try your hand at optimizing the Giants line-up as a sort of challenge. Plus I figure it would give you a chance to maybe delve into some of the finer details discussed in The Book as in how to seperate two similar skill sets.

by Franchise55 on Mar 20, 2009 8:23 PM EDT reply actions

I like your approach ...

… but how about Ellsbury batting 9th … then he would lead off the best hitters later on … and … he’s not a big RBI guy either, so … batting him behind Varitek is, I think, better than putting him behind Pedroia!

Lowell is much better in driving in Ortiz and Pedroia and so I would put him 6th!

by BurGi on Mar 21, 2009 12:27 PM EDT reply actions