Poll: Worst Contracts in MLB
by Sky Kalkman on Mar 16, 2009 1:00 PM EDT
49 comments
Based on the 300+ comments in this thread, the nominations for worst contracts in MLB are listed below (at least three recs). You may vote for as many as you'd like, although I encourage you to shoot for about ten. If you think there are six definites, just vote for six. If you think the 10th through 13th spots are indistinguishably bad, then vote for 13.
No, there aren't any more specifics than "worst MLB contract". Interpret it how you will -- worst decision at time of signing, worst remaining contract, most money wasted, dumbest -- whatever.
The poll closes Wednesday at midnight EDT.
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is Johjima really 8 years?
actually, not sure if that would be better or worse.
I predict that this post will make several Mariners fans weep openly.
8 years for 24 million dollars for Kenji would be extremely, extremely valuable.
There are no good individual basketball statistics.
54!
Would have voted for Andruw Jones
But I’m taking the “cut” to mean that the organization took the sunk cost and therefore isn’t as stupid as the Dodgers.
not sure which organization you're referring to.
but i doubt there’s another player on this list who will have so egregiously stolen from his employer. $36M for taking a win away?
Not a bad deal for the Rangers
money-wise, if that’s what you mean, but the Dodgers, who signed him to that deal, are obviously not getting their money’s worth.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
Jeter/Dontrelle/Guillen
are tied at 11 votes at the moment, well off the lead, but an interesting trio
And Zito has as many as andruw and juan combined (the runners up at the moment)
I will admit to being a Yankee fan...
… but is Jeter’s deal really “bad” ? Fangraphs has him earning 112mil and costing 132.mil for 2002-2008. I know he’s probably going to earn about 14 this year and get paid 20, but I don’t think that his deal has really been in the same class as Zito or Guillen. And in the first year of the deal (2001) he got paid 11mil and I would guess he was at least a 4.5-win player that year, so the Yankees probably made a profit.
Let’s say he earned 12mil in 2001, that would put him at 124mil earned and 143mil paid for 2001-2008.
Good points about Jeter's contract.
But keep in mind it’s back loaded. He’ll be paid $41M between this year and next. At 3.7 WAR each of the past two years, let’s say he’s 3.5 this year and 3.0 next. That’s 6.5 WAR, or $30M worth. Another $11M lost.
Still, not as bad as some would argue. Plus, he’s bringing in tons of revenue just because he’s Derek Jeter.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
If Selig doesn't "win"
you all need to have your nerd cards revoked
Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary to Driveline Mechanics and elsewhere since sometime in 2008.
hyperbole
Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary to Driveline Mechanics and elsewhere since sometime in 2008.
by Matt Klaassen on Mar 16, 2009 10:13 PM EDT up reply actions
Selig
the league has made a lot of money during his tenure, and he’s certainly outperforming the brilliant execs at AIG, Citi, etc.
G G G E-flat_______ F F F D__________....
The Wild Card was a really good move.
Other than that, what has he done proactively that’s put MLB in a better position than what another commissioner candidate would have done? One could argue that he muffed the steroids stuff to high heck.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Mar 17, 2009 11:38 AM EDT up reply actions
mlb advanced media is considered the best in sports.
the deals struck regarding mlbn to get it in a huge number of homes was also a masterstroke. how much credit you want to give to selig for these things is debatable, i suppose. what another commissioner would have done is highly speculative but one can look at what commissioners in other sports have done. or haven’t.
and i think the owners would disagree with you regarding steroids. maybe the initial dealing with the problem was screwed up – the union gets a huge amount of blame for that, too – but the media doesn’t focus very much on what the owners knew or didn’t know or did or didn’t do. he’s successfully shifted most of the blame/attention to the players and the union. and that’s his job. he works for the owners and protecting their interests.
I voted for Carlos Silva
Zito is clearly the worst, but that would have been too easy, and I know he’ll win anyway. At least Zito was an obvious “stupid GM doesn’t pay attention to negative trends and overpays” storyline. What the heck was the rationale for 4/48 for Carlos freaking Silva?
Also, I tend to think the Andruw Jones haters are being disingenuous. At the time, was a short term deal for a previously very special player such a bad idea? Isn’t that a good (albeit a tad expensive) risk to take? I liked it at the time, and even though the results have been disastrous, it’s hard for me to criticize that now.
Silva's contract wasn't that bad at the time
he averaged 2.45 WAR over the previous 4 seaons and ~3.2 if you throw out his 0.1 season. With it costing ~4.2 M per WAR, it is not that horrible. He just aged faster than the average pitcher.
Has there ever been any questions about his actual age. If he was a couple years old, his trend line would more match the average pitcher.
That being said, no pitcher over 30 should be give over a 2 year contract. On average, a pitcher has pitched their last game by the time they are 32 and they just start degrading very quickly.
by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Mar 16, 2009 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions
No, it was that bad at the time.
There’s no way to justify that contract.
by Aaron Campeau on Mar 16, 2009 5:35 PM EDT up reply actions
There is more of case for it then most others on the list
Last season the Mariners threw away 1.7 million on him (actual $/per WAR), the Royal’s on the other hand threw way 11.6 million on Jose Guillen.
by Jeff Zimmerman (TucsonRoyal) on Mar 16, 2009 5:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Sometimes you have to ignore FIP
when the pitcher allows a .330 batting average against. It’s not like he was unlucky either, his TRA* was 5.43 last year and it has been over 5 each of the last 3 years. Silva is just a pinata out there.
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Mar 17, 2009 4:31 AM EDT up reply actions
Re: Andruw Jones
Points taken, but when I look at this list and see Gary Matthews Jr. and Torii Hunter and Alfonso Soriano and Paul Konerko and Juan Pierre, the major problem to me isn’t necessarily the $$, but the years. The length of the contracts are the real killers ( and even as a Yankee fan, 10 years for a 31 year old Arod was absolutely ridiculous). Andruw Jones’ contract wasn’t good, but if you’re going to gamble big money on a player, it’s much better to do it over 2 years than 5.
Ignoring FIP...
“when the pitcher allows a .330 batting average against” is a bad reason.
“his TRA* was 5.43 last year and it has been over 5 each of the last 3 years” is a good reason.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Mar 17, 2009 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions
Sorry
I meant to say you have to ignore FIP when the pitcher allows a .330 batting average against because he allowed 23 percent line drives and more batted balls than anyone else in the majors (probably).
FIP is good, but there is a point where common sense has to take over. If a player is allowing THAT many hits, than it may just be because he sucks, not his defense.
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Mar 17, 2009 10:30 AM EDT up reply actions
His defense did suck though.
I don’t think it was reasonable to expect Silva to be quite that bad last year. He’s still overpaid though.
by R.J. Anderson on Mar 17, 2009 11:18 AM EDT up reply actions
Even short term I don't see how giving him that much money made sense
Even short term I don’t see how giving him that much money made sense. I could understand maybe a one or two year deal for much less money, but designating 18 million to a player you hope bounces back seems like a pretty ridiculous gamble, especially when the need in the outfield wasn’t huge.
Worst Contract
in baseball isn’t on this poll. Alex Rodriguez. I didn’t post it in the other post, but I should have.
BTW, this is an exaggeration as A-Rod isn’t the worst, but he is definitely top 5. He might be worth it the next 2-3 years, but after that he’ll be VERY OVERPAID. He will have 7 years of being paid more than (on average) 25M after he’s 35.
I have them ranked 1. Zito, 2. A-Rod
What are you talking about?
Right now, he is being underpaid (slightly). If you account for regression, than you also have to account for the price per WAR to go up. A-rod may be slightly overpaid in his twilight years, but he will still be an excellent player and the Yankees can afford to overpay players at the end of there careers.
vivaelbeñsheets
by vivaelpujols on Mar 17, 2009 4:34 AM EDT up reply actions
Right now
He may be underpaid. But he has 9 more years left on his contact. Accounting for regression means there’s a good chance he ends up being overpaid by 50-100 million by the end of his contract, especially if he gets injured, which is very likely considering his age.
great idea for a poll
I voted for Zito and all Mariners, past and present. TERRIBLE CONTRACTS.
And ofc Bud
I miss Chad God
Bud Selig
He has been worth exactly 0 WAR over the past 5 years, yet he is getting a contract extension after this season. WTF? Even Willie ******* Bloomquist has been better than Selig over that span. BTW, none of the major projection systems project him to regress, so at least MLB knows what they are getting.
vivaelbeñsheets
Daisuke Matsuzaka
His contract is only 6 years, $52M. I know the Red Sox paid for the posting fee, but that’s separate from the contract, and served more of a long-term purpose than just acquiring Matsuzaka; it was meant to show Japanese players how “nice” of a place to play in Boston was. Check out all of the Japanese players on the roster now, and how some of them used Dice-K as their motivation for coming over.
The Sox paid $100 in order to Daisuke to play for them for six years.
If you want to argue there’s a Jeter-effect or Beltran-effect going on, that’s fair, but he still cost them $100M
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
by Sky Kalkman on Mar 17, 2009 10:22 AM EDT up reply actions
The posting fee is worse than a contract
The reason for the expenditure is besides the point, so the posting fee and contract is essentially front loading your cost.
by MrIncognito on Mar 29, 2009 12:26 AM EDT up reply actions
I wonder why...
no-body has mentioned Roger Clemen’s 2007 contract. It wasn’t awful in terms of numbers but in my opinion at about 18.5 million dollars plus the resulting 7 or so million in luxury tax they incured (or4.5 million per month PRE tax) it just seemed absurdly overpriced.
Still, i guess it wasn’t as bad as Zito so what are you going to do.
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