Three Facts: Boston Red Sox

by R.J. Anderson on Feb 9, 2009 9:00 PM EST

Their off-season was solid. Yeah, yeah, they failed to get Mark Teixeira, but what they did get includes a bunch of players undervalued due to injuries and signed for amounts they outperform. The Sox also avoided trading their youth, although catcher is still going to be a position of need within a year, assuming Josh Bard isn't re-signed after a solid year.
Josh Beckett's ERA lies. Since arriving in Boston Beckett's ERAs have been 5.01, 3.27, and 4.03, his FIPs: 5.12, 3.08, 3.24. Win values of 2.1, 6.5, and 5.1. Beckett missed time last year and was still worth ~23 million, that's impressive.
Speaking of missing time. The Red Sox have enough starting pitching depth that guys like Beckett, Daisuke Matzuaka, Brad Penny, John Smoltz, and Tim Wakefield can miss time without the Sox losing too much ground. This roster is extremely well built, almost too well.

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Does anyone think that giving 60+ starts to Penny, Wakefield, and Smoltz in the AL East is a good thing? Wakefield hasn’t had an FIP under 4.5 since 2003, and both CHONE and Marcels project a FIP in the 4.8 range. Smoltz coming off of surgery and a season where he only pitched 30 innings; not to mention one where the Braves considered moving him to the bullpen due to his health concerns…and an injured Brad Penny, do you really think that is going to translate to success in the AL East, where you will likely have four of baseball’s top ten offenses? I mean, don’t get me wrong, these are good signings, but counting on them as “depth” when you all you really have behind them is:

Clay Buchholz who hit some rough luck, needs to work on his fastball though, but shows tremendous potential

Michael Bowden a pitcher with fringe stuff, who has NL written all over him

Justin Masterson who experienced stamina issues in the minor leagues, struggles with left handed hitters and profiles better as a reliever.

I’m not so sure that was a good offseason plan. Yeah, Beckett’s ERA underrates him, Fenway Park tends to do that. Yet he’ll usually make a trip to the DL to with a blister issue. Jon Lester is a power lefty that has GB tendencies, but this season will see any effects from a huge inning increase? Oh yeah, Matsuzaka still had a BB/9 of 5.0 last season. Maybe Varitek’s game calling will help these guys out like it’s helped the likes of Pedro Martinez, Curt Schilling, and Josh Beckett. I don’t really think that the 2009 Boston Red Sox roster comes anywhere near “almost built too well”

Yes, they still have a very good team, but for only one of the reasons you mentioned.

by Omar Little on Feb 10, 2009 3:51 AM EST reply actions

I don't see the issue here.

They have three starters, yes with injury track records, but each who is around average. That’s valuable. Then they have the three youngsters, and while nobody knows how they may or may not work out, that is worthwhile depth.

“Fringe stuff”? Okay, and Andy Sonnanstine has “fringe stuff” too, how has he worked out? At last check he had the second best tRA and FIP of the Rays starters. I’m not saying Bowden is going to be that good, but I think you’re underestimating him.

by R.J. Anderson on Feb 10, 2009 10:06 AM EST up reply actions