Three Facts: Los Angeles Dodgers

by R.J. Anderson on Feb 8, 2009 9:18 PM EST

On to the LCS losers we go.

Matt Kemp's BABIP is a question mark. Kemp's career BABIP is over .375 through more than 1,000 career at-bats while his line drive rate is nearly 22%. Can Kemp sustain both? Plus, where will he play? If the Dodgers fail to sign a left fielder it would make more sense for Kemp to play left while Juan Pierre plays center field. Of course, I'm going to guess the Dodgers add another corner outfielder.
Replacing Derek Lowe's performance is just as vital as replacing Manny Ramirez. Last year Lowe was worth 5 wins in 211 innings. Manny, meanwhile, was worth 3.6 wins with the Dodgers in 187 at-bats. Over the last three years, Lowe has been worth ~3.9 wins per season. Compare that to Manny's 3.8 wins average and you might be surprised by the proximity of their contributions. Some combination of Randy Wolf, Clayton Kershaw, Jason Schmidt, Shawn Estes, and Eric Stults will have to fill the hole left by Lowe while also replacing Brad Penny.
The bullpen is really good. Seriously, Kuo/Broxton might be the best 1-2 punch in the National League.

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“Kemp’s career BABIP is over .375 through more than 1,000 career at-bats while his line drive rate is nearly 22%. Can Kemp sustain both?”

-I’m very curious to hear your thoughts on what you think his numbers(BABIP+LD rate%) should look like. I’ve been doing some very initial baseball projections and I have Kemp taking his game up a notch this year (Although Manny bolting might have a domino effect on the entire Dodger lineup)

“Plus, where will he play?”
If I were the Dodgers I’d utilize Pierre in LF(Noodle arm retracts his speed IMO) and play him in LF & enacting a speedy lineup, thus keeping Kemp in CF.

Pierre(L)
Furcal(S)
Kemp®
Ethier(L)
Martin®
Loney(L)
Blake®
Dewitt®
Pitcher
This lineup is pretty versatile and speedy all along the bases. I took into account Manny being Manny & bolting somewhere(although his options are thinning pretty fast with no other suitors IMO)
Looks pretty good IMO.

“Last year Lowe was worth 5 wins in 211 innings.
Lowe has been worth ~3.9 wins per season.”

I think Lowe was very under-appreciated for what he accomplished in LA, they certainly should have made a more serious effort to retain him.
The pitching staff is going to have to have a couple of key things happen to be competitive
*Billingsley keeps up his studly numbers (Has room to even improve IMO)
Kuroda keeps his numbers(Slight improvement can be achieved)

The rest of the Order is quite a ?
(Kershaw will have growing pains through out the course of a full season(BB’s have always scared me a bit)
Schmidt(I really wouldn’t rely on him too much anymore)
Stults/Vargas don’t have too much of a Ceiling IMO
McDonald/Elbert intrigue me yet I think like the Cubs the Dodgers are always in a Win now mode which prevents them from having rookies struggle in the show for a prolonged amount.

“The bullpen is really good”
Very solid combo.
Marmol/Gregg/Samardzija + Fuentes/Shields/Arredondo are 2 others I’m looking forward to seeing as well.

If a woman has to choose between catching a fly ball and saving an infant's life, she will choose to save the infant's life without even considering if there are men on base. ~Dave Barry

by Gleb on Feb 8, 2009 11:57 PM EST reply actions

Pierre should not be leading off.

Yes, he’s quick, but despite this his inability to get on base and complete lack of power means he should be batting somewhere like the 6th spot, where his speed can best be leveraged (there’s a good bit on this in The Book).

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Juuuust a bit outside!!
http://www.rightfieldbleachers.com

by Jack Moore on Feb 9, 2009 12:03 AM EST up reply actions

Absolutely.

It amazes me how many fans, and even many managers, refuse to use speed where it’s actually effective in the lineup.

And That Happened: Sports with a Hint of Sarcasm

by philkid3 on Feb 9, 2009 12:34 AM EST up reply actions

Really, that high?

I would think he’s just such a big offensive hole that he’d have to be at the bottom of the lineup. At sixth, doesn’t he bat too much with the number 3-5th hitters on base?

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Feb 9, 2009 10:32 AM EST up reply actions

If I remember correctly

The point is that it’s likely that the 7/8 hitters in an NL lineup will be singles/doubles hitters as opposed to home run hitters, and thus taking the extra base can be leveraged well. Also, the value of a stolen base is much higher when the hitter behind the baserunner is low power. I suppose anywhere from 6-8 would work for Pierre, really.

---
Juuuust a bit outside!!
http://www.rightfieldbleachers.com

by Jack Moore on Feb 9, 2009 12:23 PM EST up reply actions

bUZR doesn't like Kemp as a fielder as much as fans and scouts...

Kemp, career:
*RF: neg7 runs per 150
*CF: neg9 runs per 150

Pierre, career:
*CF: +12.1 runs per 150

bUZR includes throwing arm, by the way

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Feb 9, 2009 10:31 AM EST up reply actions

I have no idea where Kemp's BABIP should be.

Which is why I said I’m interested in seeing if he can sustain both, since they’re above average.

by R.J. Anderson on Feb 9, 2009 11:58 AM EST up reply actions

LAD

Don’t you think much of Matt Kemp’s (The Bison) Babip comes from his speed. He is one of the fastest players in all of baseball. The Dodgers will sign a COFer be it Manny or Adam Dunn. There is no way that Juan Pierre is the starting LFer or CFer, I don’t see that as even being part of the discussion for this team. If it is, they are doomed. Good call in pointing out the 5 WAR lost from Derek Lowe from last year. They also have to make up the 1.7 lost to Saito and the nickel and dimes lost from Kent, Nomar and Beimel. I think the biggest weight lifted will be A.Jones and M.Sweeney. Those two were disasters. As currently constructed I have the Dodgers as an 80 win team on paper. Sign Manny and they shoot up into the 83 win range (depending on which projections you use). The Dodgers do have a higher ceiling than this with possible breakout years from Ethier, Kemp, Billingsley, Loney, Broxton, and Kershaw all possibilities.
vr, Xei

by Xeifrank on Feb 9, 2009 12:32 AM EST reply actions

I think LD% and BABIP would be a pretty good can of worms to open up.

It seems like there isn’t a ton of agreement amongst the statheads about just how random BABIP is for hitters (at least not that I noticed.

I'm spent, just can't rosterbate anymore.

by oldjacket on Feb 9, 2009 1:21 AM EST reply actions

no

most agree that at least hiters don’t follow the .300 rule like pitchers. most of the prominent hitters sustain higher than .300 BABIP for their career. how it interact with LD/GB/FB is debatable but the variation isn’t THAT far.

However, Kemp’s current line is A LOT better than the best career active leader with significant sample size… Ichiro.

by RollingWave on Feb 9, 2009 1:51 AM EST up reply actions

My rule of thumb, and it's not based on anything than me observing studies over the years...

Is that most pitcher BABIP skill levels fall between .290 and .310. For hitters, it’s more like .250 to .350. Hitters have a lot more control over BABIP than pitchers do, but BABIPs at .370 probably include a chunk of luck. That doesn’t mean you should assume 100% regression to .300, though.

Peter Bendix helped do some research on expected BABIP, which is the best available. Kemp appears as the most lucky hitter the past two years. The whole article is worth reading:

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/batters-and-babip/

Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.

by Sky Kalkman on Feb 9, 2009 10:35 AM EST up reply actions