First Live Chat Is Best Live Chat In BtB History
by Sky Kalkman on Feb 3, 2009 3:39 PM EST
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PrintThe full chat transcript is available after the jump, but I've quoted some highlights below.
If you participated, what did you think? How did the format of having five BtB authors contributing work out? Did things move too fast? Too slow? Was the time slot convenient? Did you like the polls? Do you think other readers asked decent questions? Should we stick with the clothing optional policy? Other thoughts?
Jl: Who's going to the playoffs in the NL?
R.J. Anderson: San Fran, New York, Chicago, St. Louis
Graham (iamawesomer): Rox, Cubs, Phils, and the Pirates, they're this years Rays!
Sky Kalkman: Mets, Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Cubs. I reserve the right to actually put some thought into this at a later date.
Jl: I couut 3 St. Louis'. wheeee!
PhilR8: Why can Pittsburgh win six Superbowls, but be written off by talking heads as a market that can never again succeed in baseball?
Sky Kalkman: Uh, talking heads don't know what they're talking about? It's the standard thing: Team A hasn't been good recently, therefore Team A won't be any good going forward. Hell, even Pirates fans don't understand that Huntington is a good GM. He's going to do things differently. They'll be the NL version of the Indians in a couple years.
Kyle Boddy: R.J., what is your icon supposed to be on SB Nation?
R.J. Anderson: Joe Maddon's glasses + Kanye West's graduation bear logo combined. No idea why it was ever made or thought of.
Jeff: Team surprises and disappointments for the upcoming season...
Harry Pavlidis: Braves
Graham (iamawesomer): Surprise: I think the Rangers will be quite competitive and finish maybe 2-3 games back in the AL West.
Sky Kalkman: Surprise: Rangers
Ryan: I would suspect that if the Rangers are the surprise, then we see Sheets there and maybe a Holland sighting?
Sky Kalkman: The Rangers and Sheets are an obvious fit. Too obvious.
Mini Sky: SHOULD the Yankees trade Nady, Swisher, or Nobody, and which do you THINK will happen?
R.J. Anderson: They should try and sell high on Nady. Selling low on Swisher after acquiring him for peanuts seems pointless.
Graham (iamawesomer): I think they should hold on to everyone. I've always wondered why a team like the Yankees bench didn't consist of superstars as well, like really Jose Molina is your backup catcher?
Sky Kalkman: Someone needs to stop sending the RBI-related questions.
Bendix: RBI!
Timmy: Odds of John Smoltz pitching 50+ innings in '09?
Harry Pavlidis: I'll give Smoltz 20 innings regular arm angle, 20 innings new angle, and 10 some dangling noodle thing
Oh, and in the poll asking "Should we have more polls?", 83% of you voted yes.
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sorry I missed it
I’m not feeling well today was was out on the couch
Bringing you more-or-less replacement level analysis and commentary since sometime in 2008.
So why won't R.J. go out with his old ex?
Is he too much of a big shot now?
"OBP is not a production number, and should not be used as something he achieved."
Peter Angelos should have been my fifth awful GM. I mean, no matter who's around, he kills their ability to do anything useful.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
No comments from RJ Anerson though
kinda disappointed
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Juuuust a bit outside!!
http://www.rightfieldbleachers.com
Regarding BaseRuns.
BaseRuns is a dynamic run estimator that follows the form:
A*B/(B+C)+D
Where A is baserunners (minus home runs), B is the “advancement factor”, C is outs, and D is home runs.
Sky is correct; the reason that BaseRuns is not appropriate for individual players because an individual generally provides a baserunner or advances runners ahead of him; he does not (one he reaches base) advance himself with his own base hits.
In short, a dynamic run estimator follows the form:
Runner*DriveIn
A hitter provides runners for other hitters, and drives in the runners ahead of him. He can at any given point be either a runner or a driver-in, but (with the exception of the home run) cannot do both at the same time.
You can use Theoretical Team BaseRuns to gauge a hitter’s impact on a typical team, or an atypical team, or if you’re bored a team you just made up out of thin air. Generally however this is much more difficult and not much more accurate than just using linear weights.
Additionally, for pitchers...
Since they face a whole lineup, or at least a series of batters if they’re a relievers, the batting events they allow DO interact with each other. So with Pedro on the mound, for example, it’s a much lower run-scoring environment, making power more valuable and OBP less valuable, relatively. With a hitter, they are only 1/9 of the lineup, meaning they don’t affect the run environment much.
And by run environment, I don’t just mean level of scoring. You could have two 4.50 ERA pitchers, but one is high-contact, low-HR, low-BB and the other is high-K, high-BB, and medium-HR. The relative values of their individual events will be a bit different.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
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