Royals sign Juan Cruz

by erik on Feb 28, 2009 4:41 PM EST

So Dayton Moore strikes again, this time freeing Juan Cruz from Type A purgatory by signing him to a 2-year deal worth $6M. I actually have to give Dayton his due on this one. Setting up for Soria, Cruz is projected to be about a 1.3 WAR player. If Cruz can continue his effectiveness as CHONE projects he will, he'll be worth nearly twice the amount dollars he's actually going to get paid.

On the other hand, it's not like this signing is going thrust the Royals into contention any time soon, and they are forfeiting their 2nd round pick to Arizona. But hey, it's not like the Royals have struck gold with any of their 2nd round picks in the last ten years, at least none that I can think of. Shane Costa, anyone?*

*Alright, Johnny Giavotella is interesting in his own right.

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Who knows, maybe he can swing him for something useful at the trade deadline too.

I like this move, low risk, high reward.

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by Jack Moore on Feb 28, 2009 4:46 PM EST reply actions

The Royals, a small market team, giving 6 mil to a mid reliever is not low risk, high reward.

This has been a horrendous offseason for the Royals. They could have signed Adam Dunn, much less Abreu or Giambi, and still have spent less money than they have on Kyle Farnsworth, Coco Crisp and Juan Cruz, all while keeping their (probably better) relievers and draft pick. That doesn’t even include Jacobs, who will probably be worse than a KK/Shealy tandem. So, basically, they spent 16 mil to get worse(not including the fact that all the players will have their salary increased in the future), while Moore was whining about how they couldn’t sign a hitter because of their budget.

To think I had hopes in Moore… well, he did give Guillen 36 mil.

by Daniel Berlyn on Feb 28, 2009 8:40 PM EST up reply actions

I agree with the vast majority of that

But $5.5M over two seasons plus a third year team option is low cost. And given Cruz’s performance and projections, he looks to be a good value for the money.

This signing was one of very few bright spots for the Royals in what has been a horrible offseason.

The immoderate moderator

by Scott McKinney on Feb 28, 2009 8:42 PM EST up reply actions

In a vacuum, it was a good signing.

by Daniel Berlyn on Feb 28, 2009 9:01 PM EST up reply actions

I think it was a good signing in context

But this one good move does not mean the Royals offseason wasn’t a mockery of a travesty of a sham. It was a failed offseason. It’s just a little less horrible now than it was yesterday.

The immoderate moderator

by Scott McKinney on Feb 28, 2009 9:03 PM EST up reply actions

The question is

why would a below .500 team small market team with rotation and lineup woes trade two young and cheap relievers to sign two older expensive ones

by viktor06 on Feb 28, 2009 4:51 PM EST reply actions

Because Moore misguidedly thought that acquiring Jacbos and Crisp was important

The immoderate moderator

by Scott McKinney on Feb 28, 2009 5:02 PM EST up reply actions

about that

The Jacobs trade was stupid when it happened, but it looks ridiculous now with Abreu signing for 1.75M more than he gets in 09

by viktor06 on Feb 28, 2009 5:04 PM EST up reply actions

It was ridiculous

One of the things that made it ridiculous was Moore rushing to do it so quickly and not waiting to see how the tanking economy would affect the FA market.

The immoderate moderator

by Scott McKinney on Feb 28, 2009 5:17 PM EST up reply actions

While this doesn't get the Royals into contention any time soon

It is a 2-year deal plus third year option. So they may have added a good bullpen piece to have around when they might be in contention. FWIW, I just posted a piece about the newest Royal at Royals Review

The immoderate moderator

by Scott McKinney on Feb 28, 2009 5:01 PM EST reply actions

Good stuff.

by R.J. Anderson on Feb 28, 2009 5:06 PM EST up reply actions

Refresher f/x

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/1/9/715840/where-s-the-fuss-juan-cruz

A commenter pointed out someone who had their first pick protected would be the best bet. Good call.

by Harry Pavlidis on Feb 28, 2009 5:16 PM EST reply actions

Also, the AL Central isn’t overflowing with obvious championship teams

by APV on Feb 28, 2009 5:28 PM EST reply actions

BP's PECOTA simulations

Using PECOTA numbers and running thousands of simulations found that the Royals win the division about 14% of the time and the Indians win the division about 32% of the time. PECOTA thinks the division is very bunched up, which would mean that some breakout seasons could easily get the Royals into contention. On the other hand, CHONE projects the division to be very spread out with teams like the Royals and Chisox have no chance.

The immoderate moderator

by Scott McKinney on Feb 28, 2009 5:38 PM EST up reply actions

Sean is a lot smarter than me

(and in other obvious news….)

but I didn’t quite understand how he did his standings projections this season.

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by Matt Klaassen on Feb 28, 2009 6:25 PM EST up reply actions

if the indians win 90 games with that rotation, that will be quite amazing to me.

not saying it won’t happen – i know better than that – but that group looks pretty fugly to me.

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by larry on Feb 28, 2009 6:30 PM EST up reply actions

I need to read his post about the projections again

I just didn’t quite understand the method.

Yeah, though, the Indians rotation is… well, when Cliff Lee is the guy a team who the team has the most confidence in….

Seems like another year for the White Sox to pull one out of nowhere, since they always succeed in inverse proportion to my approval of Kenny’s moves. That’s why he’s a GM, and I’m just some guy, I guess.

Okay, I guess they won the division last season when I liked their offseason, so even that joke is going nowhere…

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by Matt Klaassen on Feb 28, 2009 6:37 PM EST up reply actions

I can tell you how he did it

Sabermetrics = magic

If you can’t turn PECOTA projections into standings, then you’re not using enough fairy dust.

The immoderate moderator

by Scott McKinney on Feb 28, 2009 6:37 PM EST up reply actions

PECOTA likes Cruz far less than CHONE

CHONE has Cruz as a 1.4 win player, whereas my half-assed FIP-ization of the PECOTA spreadsheet has him as a 0.4 win player.

Good pitcher, but the signing highlights just how horrible the Farnsworth signing is, just as the Hinske/Branyan signings highlight how stupid the Jacobs trade was.

And don’t even get me started on letting Langerhans pass through waivers…

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by Matt Klaassen on Feb 28, 2009 6:29 PM EST reply actions