NL Central Live Chat: Tuesday, March 3 @ 1pm CST
by Sky Kalkman on Mar 3, 2009 12:18 PM EST
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PrintJoin BtBers Harry and Erik, plus guest panelists Justin, Charlie, Evan, and Kyle for a saber-slanted preview of the 2009 NL Central. That's 2pm EST/1pm CST on Tuesday, right after FOBtB Marc Normandin's chat at BPro. I work through the questions from beginning to end, so the earlier you show up, the better chance you have of having your questions answered. We'll also have a few pre-set questions for all of these divisional chats that the panelists can debate.
Chat window after the jump. You can even enter your email address to receive a pre-chat reminder.
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I wonder
if Ludwick and Dempster are an interesting comparison… Dempster strikes me as being lucky last year, and you all agree Ludwick was lucky last year… do you think both will regress?
Also, Cardinals and Cubs pitching aces will be interesting to watch, no doubt. If Harden stays healthy, as well as Carpenter, I think that the Cards have the upper hand. I think the Big Z and Dempster won’t be as good as last year… and many think that Lohse and Wellemeyer will regress. I see a lot of parallels between the two starting pitching staffs, but I think that the Cardinals will have a slight edge in the bullpen, and probably will in hitting/offense as well. I think that it will be a close race between the two.
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Mar 3, 2009 4:43 PM EST reply actions
also
how does Ankiel playing with a hernia for over a month NOT hinder his OF defensive ratings? how is that BS?
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Mar 3, 2009 5:19 PM EST reply actions
Because we don't know how much a hernia affects defensive performance, or Ankiel specifically.
How many players out there had hernias that we don’t know about and increased their performance? I’m sure a hernia rarely helps, but we really don’t know how much it hurt. Quoting good fielding pre-hernia and bad fielding with hernia is a fallacial argument.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
I'm sure that it's subjective
but are you really saying that a hernia can help you run faster? I think not. so it may be speculation, but I wouldn’t go so far as saying it’s BS, more of an educated guess. still don’t see how it is a fallacy at all, I suppose we will agree to disagree on this particular point.
by Cards Fan in Chitown on Mar 4, 2009 3:04 PM EST up reply actions
No, I'm not saying that.
I’m just saying that the null hypothesis is that for a player who continues to play the field, he affect of a hernia is zero. So even though Ankiel’s performance went down, you can’t conclude that it was because of the hernia. Heck, with the small sample size of fielding data, we’re not even sure his performance went down even if his rating did.
There are MANY educated guesses that fit the facts. That doesn’t make a guess any more likely to be true.
Beyond the Boxscore // Calling BJ Upton lazy is lazy.
because he was moved to LF/DH/PH after the injury
he wasn’t “good” before the injury and “bad” after it. He was hurt on 29 july, trying to rob a home run against the mets, and didn’t play CF again after that. So his CF metrics should be legit, though they are a small sample. It boils down to how much you trust a half season of fielding stats.
The biggest issue here is that he was really, really, really good the first two months of the season, by RZR (for a while he was the best player in baseball, at any position). And he finished the season “ok” by RZR, roughly equal to carlos beltran, who isn’t exactly a bad CF.
UZR doesn’t like him at all, but that stat- which has been accepted as gospel truth without nearly enough study, imho (especially fangraphs implementation of it, the value of which seems to change daily) wasn’t available last season, when cardinals fans who do things like look up stats on teh interweb developed their biases. We were kind of blindsided by UZR suddenly telling us what our eyes saw all year (and what tht told us in numbers) suddenly wasn’t true any more.
"i have a feeling the answers are bigger than the questions" -Dr Heyward Floyd
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