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A Brave New Outfield

 

Thanks everyone for the warm welcome, it's good to be aboard here at BtB. Getting right to it.

When a Garret Anderson signing improves your team's starting outfield, suffice to say your team has some issues. It may not pose too much of a problem for the Braves; they're fielding a solid team in spite of their horrible outfield. Down on the farm, help is on the way, but it could take a little while.

Jason Heyward

The scouts say: He's already really good and is a ways away from reaching his ceiling. He is an impressive physical specimen, makes good contact and shows excellent pitch recognition. He has raw power, but hasn't quite tapped into it...yet.

The numbers say: 2008 season: .323/.390/.485,  +13 runs according to Total Zone.  2008 Low A Peak Translation: .308/.406/.537, PECOTA comps: Al Chambers - Chipper Jones - James Loney - Casey Kotchman - Jay Bruce

I say: Um, what the numbers and scouts said. By most rankings, he's a top ten hitting prospect, which needless to say makes him one of the most valuable assets in the game.  Al Chambers and Chipper Jones popping up 1-2 as his comps has to be the two most extreme outcomes one could possibly imagine...talk about boom or bust. I'd bet on the boom, although Chipper is a lofty comparison.

Jordan Schafer

The scouts say: His tools rate as average to above across the board. He has above average speed, surprising power and is a top-flight defender in CF.

The numbers say: 2008 season:  .269/.378/.471, Total Zone: -1.  AA Peak Translation: .274/.387/.508, PECOTA comps: Jimmie White - Louie Meadows - John Vander Wal - Richard Brown - Jim Edmonds

I say: John Vander Wal! Vander Wal's career splits versus lefties:  .204/.279/.269. Schafer's: .236/.310/.331. The scouting reports do not really match the stats when it comes to the leather. He struck out in nearly 30% of his plate appearances last season, but also walked 14.2% of his PA's. Despite some of his obvious flaws and saying nothing about his 50 game suspension for HGH, he's a very good prospect. Anyone who has Jim Edmonds' name pop up in their PECOTA comps is alright in my book.

Gorkys Hernandez

The scouts say: Line drive hitter with above average speed. Great range in CF and solid arm. Power is well below average an unlikely to develop.

The numbers say: 2008 season: .264/.348/.387, Total Zone: + 26 (!!!).  High A Peak Translation: .264/.353/.424. PECOTA comps: Carlos Gomez, Willie Canate, Desmond Jennings, Gregor Blanco, Alejandro De Aza.

I say: Iffy bat, but he's shown decent enough on base skills and has the speed to make you believe he might be able to hit near the top of the order in the majors. Just like Carlos Gomez. (oh, wait). Just an unbelievable glove; he's been +44 runs in two full minor league seasons.

It's nice for any team to have one Top 100 hitting prospect in their system, the Braves have three. Only Schafer may be of actual help this season, but if you're a Braves fan, it's nice to know there is some talent in the pipeline where it is needed most.

0 recs  |  Comment 6 comments |

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Great first post...

1. I love that BtB will now be getting more minor league content
2. Great to see that my Braves were the first to get some attention!

How worried are you about Schafer’s platoon splits? We’ve had some discussion on TC about them and the opinions seem to vary widely with some thinking they’ll resolve themselves with time and some seeing them as a potential Achilles heel.

As for his defense, I’m slightly miffed. All of the scouting reports indicate that he’s probably a +10 major league center fielder right now.

by BraveBronco0121 on Feb 24, 2009 8:34 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

I'm sure you've heard the Sizemore comp

Sizemore had some rough platoon splits coming up. Schafer and Sizemore have a similar set of tools, skills and we know the story. Only an insane person would say he’s the next Grady, but he does have the potential to blossom into a star.

As for his glove, I was as surprised as you were. Hit two previous season he was -10 and -2. BA says he’s the best defensive outfielder, which is saying something given the presence of Gorkys. Edmonds never really lived up to his hype when it comes to UZR, save for a season or two.

 

I'll be the one overrating these Faberge' eggs, thank you very much!
Future Redbirds / PAH9

by erik on Feb 24, 2009 9:31 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Dan Fox's SFR had him at

0, so that’s two pretty good defensive metrics saying “meh”

I'll be the one overrating these Faberge' eggs, thank you very much!
Future Redbirds / PAH9

by erik on Feb 24, 2009 9:37 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

in 2007, sorry needed to clarify

I'll be the one overrating these Faberge' eggs, thank you very much!
Future Redbirds / PAH9

by erik on Feb 24, 2009 9:54 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Good question

if Garret is a 1, 1.5 WAR player, Schafer in center could be .9-1.2.

I'll be the one overrating these Faberge' eggs, thank you very much!
Future Redbirds / PAH9

by erik on Feb 24, 2009 9:49 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

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